POOL
Pool CorporationNASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryIndustrial DistributionSnapshot 2026-05-08
As of May 8, 2026, POOL has a composite score of 11.8 and is labeled as "mild favorable." This score is influenced by a medium confidence level of 76.5 and elevated risk, with notable strengths in macro factors (17.9) and valuation (74.8), which is considered inexpensive. The analysis is provisional and reflects various scenarios that could impact future estimates, including potential guidance changes and sector trends.
Price
Daily closes from AlphaVantage. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Factor signals
Read top-to-bottom: thesis (is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold), watch flags (has something changed worth re-reading), and position context (how violent might the path be). Each pill is a parallel diagnostic — never aggregated into a single score.
Thesis
— is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold?Why this rank
- Direction share1.00
- Slope (norm)-0.16
- Bonus0.00
Why this rank
Trailing four: 2024-Q3, 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3
Why this rank
Watch
— has something changed worth re-reading?Why this setup
EPS estimate $5.34 → $5.36 (+0.4% / 30d). 7 raised, 3 cut, 11 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 2 maintained. 36% of analysts rate Buy.
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 4.7% above current price.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
F4 · Management deep-dive — recent events, stated priorities, guidance track record
Recent 8-K events
4 material events in the last 24 months — top 4 listed below.
Stated priorities
2 priorityies extracted from earnings transcripts (as of 2026-05-08).
- 1.Maintain EPS guidance for 2026growthbehind0% progress
4/23: “We remain confident in our full-year 2026 earnings guidance of $10.87 to $11.17 per diluted share.”
Why this status
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. The company has consistently maintained its EPS guidance for 2026 between $10.87 and $11.17. Despite a net income loss of $33.08M in 2025-Q4, the company remains confident in achieving its EPS target, indicating a focus on growth and recovery.
- 2.Focus on cash flow improvementcostbehind0% progress
2/26: “The Company continues to focus on improving cash flow from operations.”
Why this status
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Cash from operations improved significantly from -$1.54M in 2025-Q2 to $229.55M in 2025-Q4, indicating progress in cash flow management. This aligns with management's focus on enhancing cash flow generation, showing a positive trajectory.
Guidance track record
Insufficient guidance history for this ticker.
Position context
— how violent might the path be while I hold it?Why this risk level
Recent vol — 30d annualized 40%; 252d 34%.
Drawdown — Max 1y −43%. Bad day move −3%.
Beta to sector ETF (XLY) — 0.06 over 1y.
Liquidity — score 100/100.
Sub-scores — vol 43/100, drawdown 13/100, beta 6/100, earnings vol —.
via XLY
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive — historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only — describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-05-08.
What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-05-08
Management scorecard
How management runs the business — capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What management is focused on
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
- #1
Maintain EPS guidance for 2026
GrowthThe company aims to maintain its full-year 2026 EPS guidance between $10.87 and $11.17.
BehindStated in 3 of last 3 quarters. The company has consistently maintained its EPS guidance for 2026 between $10.87 and $11.17. Despite a net income loss of $33.08M in 2025-Q4, the company remains confident in achieving its EPS target, indicating a focus on growth and recovery.
0%CEO/CFO:“We remain confident in our full-year 2026 earnings guidance of $10.87 to $11.17 per diluted share.”Press releaseSource dated 2026-04-23Stated 3 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-04-23Show history (3)
- 2026-Q1Press release
“We remain confident in our full-year 2026 earnings guidance of $10.87 to $11.17 per diluted share.”
- 2025-Q4Press release
“We expect earnings for 2026 to be in the range of $10.85 to $11.15 per diluted share.”
- 2025-Q3Press release
“We are confirming our full-year earnings guidance range of $10.81 to $11.31.”
- #2
Focus on cash flow improvement
CostThe company is focusing on improving cash flow from operations to support its financial health.
BehindStated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Cash from operations improved significantly from -$1.54M in 2025-Q2 to $229.55M in 2025-Q4, indicating progress in cash flow management. This aligns with management's focus on enhancing cash flow generation, showing a positive trajectory.
Cash from operations improved from -$1.54M in 2025-Q2 to $229.55M in 2025-Q40%CEO/CFO:“The Company continues to focus on improving cash flow from operations.”Earnings callSource dated 2026-02-26Stated 2 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-02-26Show history (2)
- 2025-Q4Earnings call
“The Company continues to focus on improving cash flow from operations.”
- 2025-Q3Earnings call
“We are committed to enhancing our cash flow generation.”
How this stock is priced
Two ways to read price: against peers in the same business, and against the company's own history.
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
P/E over the last 5 years
71 monthly pointsHow this compares
A side-by-side read on composite, valuation, and risk versus peers.
| Stock | Composite | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
POOL Pool Corporation | +12 | inexpensive | elevated |
AMZN Amazon | +16 | full | moderate |
TSLA Tesla, Inc. | +0.4 | expensive | elevated |
HD Home Depot (The) | +14 | full | moderate |
CVNA Carvana | +14 | — | high |
Risk — how this stock moves
What a normal day looks like, what a bad day looks like, and the worst the last year has thrown at it.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios — if X happens, the score would shift by about Y points. These are not predictions.
- If consumer_discretionary sector trend rises from +0.10 into 'improving' (>= +0.20)+5.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is raised (currently NEW as of 2026-05-04)+4.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is cut (currently NEW as of 2026-05-04)-8.0 pts
- If consumer_discretionary sector trend falls from +0.10 into 'weakening' (<= -0.20)-5.0 pts
- If growth state reverses from +0.25 (positive) to -0.25 (negative)-4.0 pts
Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-05-044d agoItem 5.02
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On May 4, 2026, Pool Corporation (the “Company”), a Delaware corporation, and Peter D. Arvan mutually agreed that Mr. Arvan will cease to serve as President and Chief Executive Officer, effective May 4, 2026 (the “Transition Effective Time”). Mr. Arvan will also resign as a member of the Company’s Board of Directors (the “Board”), effective at the…
executive changeneutralscore 73 - 2026-05-081d agoItem 5.02
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. As previously disclosed on a Current Report on Form 8-K filed by Pool Corporation (the “Company”) on May 4, 2026 (the “Original Form 8-K”), the Company and Peter D. Arvan mutually agreed that Mr. Arvan will cease to serve as President and Chief Executive Officer, effective May 4, 2026. Accordingly, the Company and Mr. Arvan entered into a separatio…
executive changeneutralscore 55 - 2026-04-2315d agoItem 2.02
and should not be deemed incorporated by reference by any general statement incorporating by reference this Current Report on Form 8-K into any filing under the Securities Act of 1933 or under the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, except to the extent that the Registrant specifically incorporates this information by reference, and none of this information should be deemed “filed” under such acts. On April 23, 2026, Pool Corporation, a Delaware corporation, issued a press release reporting firs…
earnings preannouncementneutralscore 46 - 2026-02-192mo agoItem 2.02
and should not be deemed incorporated by reference by any general statement incorporating by reference this Current Report on Form 8-K into any filing under the Securities Act of 1933 or under the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, except to the extent that the Registrant specifically incorporates this information by reference, and none of this information should be deemed “filed” under such acts. On February 19, 2026, Pool Corporation, a Delaware corporation, issued a press release announcing…
earnings preannouncementnegativescore 13 - 2026-02-132mo agoItem 5.02
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. (b) On February 12, 2026, Carlos A. Sabater informed the Board of Directors of Pool Corporation (the “Company”) that he will not stand for re-election as director and as a member of the audit, nominating and corporate governance and strategic planning committees at the end of his current term in connection with the Company’s 2026 annual meeting of…
executive changeneutralscore 8
Score history
The composite score, snapshot by snapshot. The dotted line at zero separates leaning-positive from leaning-negative.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.