PSX
Phillips 66NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Refining & MarketingSnapshot 2026-05-08
As of May 8, 2026, PSX has a mixed analyst signal with a composite score of -1.9. The score is influenced by various factors, including a favorable macro outlook with a score of 4.0 and unfavorable momentum at -15.7. The analysis is provisional, reflecting ongoing changes in guidance and sector trends.
Price
Daily closes from AlphaVantage. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Factor signals
Read top-to-bottom: thesis (is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold), watch flags (has something changed worth re-reading), and position context (how violent might the path be). Each pill is a parallel diagnostic — never aggregated into a single score.
Thesis
— is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold?Why this rank
- Direction share0.66
- Slope (norm)-0.45
- Bonus0.00
Why this rank
Trailing four: 2024-Q3, 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3
Why this rank
Watch
— has something changed worth re-reading?Why this setup
EPS estimate $4.46 → $5.95 (+33.2% / 30d). 12 raised, 1 cut, 16 covering analysts.
1 upgrade, 0 downgrades / 30d, 2 maintained. 50% of analysts rate Buy.
2 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 5.8% above current price.
0 positive, 1 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
F4 · Management deep-dive — recent events, stated priorities, guidance track record
Recent 8-K events
7 material events in the last 24 months — top 5 listed below.
Stated priorities
3 priorityies extracted from earnings transcripts (as of 2026-05-08).
- 1.Focus on organic Midstream growthgrowthwatchprovisional
7/25: “Looking ahead, we are focused on organic Midstream growth as we advance toward our 2027 targets.”
Why this status
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Midstream income before taxes was $591M in 2026-Q1, indicating a stable performance. The focus on organic growth is persistent, but financials show limited progress towards significant growth targets.
- 2.Capture stronger margins post-turnaroundscostwatchprovisional
4/25: “With the bulk of our turnarounds behind us, we are well positioned to capture stronger margins as the year unfolds.”
Why this status
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Net income was $359M in 2025-Q4, reflecting some margin improvement post-turnarounds. However, the trajectory shows limited progress in capturing significantly stronger margins.
- 3.Allocate $2.4 billion for 2026 capital budgetcapital allocationmixed30% progressprovisional
2/4: “Announced 2026 capital budget of $2.4 billion, including $1.1 billion for sustaining capital and $1.3 billion for organic growth capital.”
Why this status
Newly stated in 2025-Q4. Capital expenditures were $582M in 2026-Q1, indicating initial steps towards the $2.4 billion budget. The allocation is in early stages, with limited substantive delivery on the full budget commitment.
Guidance track record
Insufficient guidance history for this ticker.
Position context
— how violent might the path be while I hold it?Why this risk level
Recent vol — 30d annualized 38%; 252d 31%.
Drawdown — Max 1y −17%. Bad day move −3%.
Beta to sector ETF (XLE) — 0.10 over 1y.
Liquidity — score 100/100.
Sub-scores — vol 48/100, drawdown 65/100, beta 10/100, earnings vol —.
via XLE
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive — historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only — describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-05-08.
What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-05-08
Management scorecard
How management runs the business — capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What management is focused on
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
- #1
Focus on organic Midstream growth
GrowthNew since 2026-05-04Advance towards 2027 targets with a focus on organic growth in the Midstream segment.
WatchStated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Midstream income before taxes was $591M in 2026-Q1, indicating a stable performance. The focus on organic growth is persistent, but financials show limited progress towards significant growth targets.
No scoreCEO/CFO:“Looking ahead, we are focused on organic Midstream growth as we advance toward our 2027 targets.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2025-07-25Stated 3 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04provisionalShow history (3)
- 2025-Q4Multiple sources
“Looking ahead, we are focused on organic Midstream growth as we advance toward our 2027 targets.”
- 2025-Q3Earnings call
“We continue to prioritize organic growth in our Midstream operations.”
- 2025-Q2Earnings call
“Our strategy remains focused on organic growth within the Midstream segment.”
- #2
Capture stronger margins post-turnarounds
CostNew since 2026-05-04Position to capture stronger margins following the completion of major turnarounds.
WatchStated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Net income was $359M in 2025-Q4, reflecting some margin improvement post-turnarounds. However, the trajectory shows limited progress in capturing significantly stronger margins.
Net income was $359M in 2025-Q4No scoreCEO/CFO:“With the bulk of our turnarounds behind us, we are well positioned to capture stronger margins as the year unfolds.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2025-04-25Stated 2 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04provisionalShow history (2)
- 2025-Q4Earnings call
“We are well positioned to capture stronger margins post-turnarounds.”
- 2025-Q3Earnings call
“Post-turnaround, we expect to see stronger margins.”
- #3
Allocate $2.4 billion for 2026 capital budget
Capital allocationNew since 2026-05-04Commit to a capital budget of $2.4 billion for 2026, focusing on sustaining and organic growth capital.
Behind →MixedNewly stated in 2025-Q4. Capital expenditures were $582M in 2026-Q1, indicating initial steps towards the $2.4 billion budget. The allocation is in early stages, with limited substantive delivery on the full budget commitment.
30%CEO/CFO:“Announced 2026 capital budget of $2.4 billion, including $1.1 billion for sustaining capital and $1.3 billion for organic growth capital.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-02-04Stated 1 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04provisionalShow history (1)
- 2025-Q4Multiple sources
“Announced 2026 capital budget of $2.4 billion.”
How this stock is priced
Two ways to read price: against peers in the same business, and against the company's own history.
Not enough peers to compare yet.
Around its own typical valuation.
P/E over the last 5 years
45 monthly pointsHow this compares
A side-by-side read on composite, valuation, and risk versus peers.
| Stock | Composite | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
PSX Phillips 66 | -1.9 | fair | moderate |
XOM ExxonMobil | +5.8 | expensive | moderate |
CVX Chevron Corporation | +3.0 | expensive | moderate |
COP ConocoPhillips | +8.0 | expensive | moderate |
WMB Williams Companies | +4.1 | fair | moderate |
Risk — how this stock moves
What a normal day looks like, what a bad day looks like, and the worst the last year has thrown at it.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios — if X happens, the score would shift by about Y points. These are not predictions.
- If inflation state reverses from -0.34 (negative) to +0.34 (positive)+5.4 pts
- If energy sector trend rises from -0.03 into 'improving' (>= +0.20)+5.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is raised (currently NEW as of 2026-02-04)+4.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is cut (currently NEW as of 2026-02-04)-8.0 pts
- If energy sector trend falls from -0.03 into 'weakening' (<= -0.20)-5.0 pts
Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-04-299d agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 29, 2026, Phillips 66 issued a press release announcing the company's financial and operating results for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 hereto and incorporated herein by reference. Additional financial and operating information about the quarter is furnished as Exhibit 99.2 hereto and incorporated herein by reference. The information in this report and the exhibits attached her…
earnings preannouncementnegativescore 64 - 2026-04-061mo agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 6, 2026, Phillips 66 (the “Company”) issued guidance providing preliminary first-quarter 2026 financial information. The preliminary financial information is based upon the Company’s current estimates and is subject to completion of financial and operating closing procedures as of and for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the guidance is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Form 8-K. The information in this report and the exhibits…
earnings preannouncementnegativescore 38 - 2026-03-181mo agoItem 1.01
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. Term Loan Agreement On March 18, 2026 (the “Term Loan Closing Date”), Phillips 66 Company (the “Company”), a wholly owned subsidiary of Phillips 66 (“Phillips 66”), entered into a 364-day, $2.25 billion term loan credit agreement with a syndicate of banks and other financial institutions party thereto and Mizuho Bank, Ltd., as administrative agent (the “Term Loan Agreement”). The Term Loan Agreement is guaranteed by Phillips 66. The Term Loan Agreem…
capital allocationneutralscore 20 - 2026-03-092mo agoItem 5.02
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On March 6, 2026, the Board of Directors (the “Board”) of Phillips 66 (the “Company”), increased the size of the Board from 14 directors to 16 directors, and appointed Kevin O. Meyers and Howard I. Ungerleider to serve on the Board, effective immediately. Dr. Meyers was appointed to the class of directors whose term expires at the Company’s annual…
executive changeneutralscore 20 - 2026-03-181mo agoItem 2.03
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant. The disclosure set forth in
capital allocationnegativescore 16
Score history
The composite score, snapshot by snapshot. The dotted line at zero separates leaning-positive from leaning-negative.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.