Pelthos Therapeutics Inc (PTHS)
AMEXHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-05
$9.30-8.37%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
AMEXHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · PTHS
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -78.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | Not available |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
A comparable growth gap is not available.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Elevated risk of a next-quarter earnings miss: this name is a smaller-cap name (higher miss base rate) and has erratic recent earnings surprises. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 117 industry peers
PTHS — capital allocation — Unregistered Sales of Equity Securities
Dated 2026-10-30
Unregistered Sales of Equity Securities. The securities to be sold to the PIPE Investors, the Option Buyer and any Other Bridge Buyers will not be registered under the Securities Act, and will be issued and sold in reliance on the exemption from registration requirements thereof provided by Section 4(a)(2) of the Securities Act and Rule 506(b) of Regulation D promulgated thereunder as a transaction by an issuer not involving a public offering. The shares of Pelthos Common Stock to be issued i…
Why it matters: Xepi would add a second marketed product. A launch on time would show progress on Pelthos's 2027 plan.
Supportive ifPelthos reports that Xepi sales began in Q1 2027.
Worry ifPelthos reports that the Xepi launch moved past March 31, 2027, or gives no launch date by then.
Why it matters: Pelthos had $24.2 million in cash at June 30 and reported losses. The deal also brings new share and payment terms.
Worry ifPelthos reports cash below $24.2 million, new debt, or more share sales before reporting enough cash for its stated plans.
Less concerning ifPelthos reports cash at or above $24.2 million, no new debt or share sale, and says cash can fund its stated plans.
Why it matters: The deal adds D-Fi and Castle Creek's cell and gene therapy work. A delay or failed vote would block that plan.
Watch forPelthos says the merger closed by March 31, 2027. Castle Creek stockholders approved it.
Also watch forCastle Creek stockholders reject the deal, or Pelthos reports it ended or missed the March 31, 2027 close window.
Why it matters: D-Fi is a late-stage treatment for a rare skin disease. A clear Phase 3 plan would mark progress toward a major deal milestone.
Supportive ifPelthos or Castle Creek reports that D-Fi Phase 3 has started and names its main study endpoints.
Worry ifThe companies report a Phase 3 delay, a pause, or no start by the next company update.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$303 on $10,000 · ±3.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $845 loss on $10,000 · 8.5% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $7,515 loss on $10,000 · 75.1% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.