RCL
Royal Caribbean GroupNYSEConsumer DiscretionaryTravel ServicesSnapshot 2026-05-08
As of May 8, 2026, RCL has a composite score of 15.1, categorized as "mild favorable." This score is influenced by a medium confidence level of 74.9 and elevated risk, with key drivers including macroeconomic factors such as growth, rates, inflation, and labor. The analysis is provisional, reflecting the potential for changes based on upcoming guidance and sector trends.
Price
Daily closes from AlphaVantage. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Factor signals
Read top-to-bottom: thesis (is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold), watch flags (has something changed worth re-reading), and position context (how violent might the path be). Each pill is a parallel diagnostic — never aggregated into a single score.
Thesis
— is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold?Why this rank
- Direction share1.00
- Slope (norm)-0.09
- Bonus0.00
Why this rank
Trailing four: 2024-Q3, 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3
Why this rank
Watch
— has something changed worth re-reading?Why this setup
EPS estimate $4.38 → $3.92 (-10.6% / 30d). 0 raised, 16 cut, 19 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 8 maintained. 73% of analysts rate Buy.
9 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 28.1% above current price.
1 positive, 0 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
F4 · Management deep-dive — recent events, stated priorities, guidance track record
Recent 8-K events
4 material events in the last 24 months — top 4 listed below.
Stated priorities
3 priorityies extracted from earnings transcripts (as of 2026-05-08).
- 1.Expand vacation portfolio with new ships and destinationsgrowthbehind10% progressprovisional
1/29: “CEO: 'We are shaping the future by further investing in game-changing vacation experiences.'”
Why this status
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Royal Caribbean is expanding its vacation portfolio with new Discovery Class ships and additional Celebrity River Cruises vessels. The company has announced agreements for new ship constructions and expansions, indicating a commitment to long-term growth. However, financials do not yet reflect the impact of these expansions, suggesting limited substantive delivery so far.
- 2.Achieve Perfecta goals by 2027growthmixed55% progressprovisional
1/29: “CEO: 'We remain on track to achieve our Perfecta goals by 2027.'”
Why this status
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. The Perfecta program targets a 20% earnings CAGR and high teens ROIC by 2027. Adjusted EPS guidance for 2026 is $17.10 to $17.50, representing 11% growth YoY. While the company reports strong financial performance, the trajectory towards Perfecta goals remains a recurring focus with limited substantive delivery so far.
- 3.Manage costs and drive revenue growthcostmixed65% progress
4/30: “CFO: 'We remain focused on delivering the best vacations responsibly, accelerating revenue growth, and managing costs.'”
Why this status
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Total revenue was $4.5 billion in 2026-Q1, an 11% increase YoY. The company continues to focus on managing costs and driving revenue growth, supported by strong demand and strategic investments. The trajectory shows delivering on revenue growth, but cost management remains a persistent statement with limited substantive delivery this quarter.
Guidance track record
Insufficient guidance history for this ticker.
Position context
— how violent might the path be while I hold it?Why this risk level
Recent vol — 30d annualized 52%; 252d 45%.
Drawdown — Max 1y −32%. Bad day move −4%.
Beta to sector ETF (XLY) — 0.09 over 1y.
Liquidity — score 100/100.
Sub-scores — vol 26/100, drawdown 35/100, beta 9/100, earnings vol —.
via XLY
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive — historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only — describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-05-08.
What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-05-08
Management scorecard
How management runs the business — capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Met or beat guidance 100% of the last 1 guided quarters · 11.5% avg surprise
What management is focused on
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
- #1
Expand vacation portfolio with new ships and destinations
GrowthRoyal Caribbean is expanding its vacation portfolio with new Discovery Class ships and additional Celebrity River Cruises vessels.
BehindStated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Royal Caribbean is expanding its vacation portfolio with new Discovery Class ships and additional Celebrity River Cruises vessels. The company has announced agreements for new ship constructions and expansions, indicating a commitment to long-term growth. However, financials do not yet reflect the impact of these expansions, suggesting limited substantive delivery so far.
10%CEO/CFO:“CEO: 'We are shaping the future by further investing in game-changing vacation experiences.'”Press releaseSource dated 2026-01-29Stated 1 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-01-29provisionalShow history (1)
- 2025-Q4Press release
“CEO: 'We are shaping the future by further investing in game-changing vacation experiences.'”
- #2
Achieve Perfecta goals by 2027
GrowthRoyal Caribbean aims for a 20% earnings CAGR and high teens ROIC by 2027 under its Perfecta program.
MixedStated in 2 of last 2 quarters. The Perfecta program targets a 20% earnings CAGR and high teens ROIC by 2027. Adjusted EPS guidance for 2026 is $17.10 to $17.50, representing 11% growth YoY. While the company reports strong financial performance, the trajectory towards Perfecta goals remains a recurring focus with limited substantive delivery so far.
55%CEO/CFO:“CEO: 'We remain on track to achieve our Perfecta goals by 2027.'”Press releaseSource dated 2026-01-29Stated 1 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-01-29provisionalShow history (1)
- 2025-Q4Press release
“CEO: 'We remain on track to achieve our Perfecta goals by 2027.'”
- #3
Manage costs and drive revenue growth
CostRoyal Caribbean focuses on managing costs while accelerating revenue growth through strong demand and strategic investments.
MixedStated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Total revenue was $4.5 billion in 2026-Q1, an 11% increase YoY. The company continues to focus on managing costs and driving revenue growth, supported by strong demand and strategic investments. The trajectory shows delivering on revenue growth, but cost management remains a persistent statement with limited substantive delivery this quarter.
65%CEO/CFO:“CFO: 'We remain focused on delivering the best vacations responsibly, accelerating revenue growth, and managing costs.'”Press releaseSource dated 2026-04-30Stated 1 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-04-30Show history (1)
- 2025-Q4Press release
“CFO: 'We continue to see net yield growth for key products.'”
How this stock is priced
Two ways to read price: against peers in the same business, and against the company's own history.
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
P/E over the last 5 years
38 monthly pointsHow this compares
A side-by-side read on composite, valuation, and risk versus peers.
| Stock | Composite | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
RCL Royal Caribbean Group | +15 | fair | elevated |
AMZN Amazon | +16 | full | moderate |
TSLA Tesla, Inc. | +0.4 | expensive | elevated |
HD Home Depot (The) | +14 | full | moderate |
CVNA Carvana | +14 | — | high |
Risk — how this stock moves
What a normal day looks like, what a bad day looks like, and the worst the last year has thrown at it.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios — if X happens, the score would shift by about Y points. These are not predictions.
- If consumer_discretionary sector trend rises from +0.10 into 'improving' (>= +0.20)+5.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is raised (currently NEW as of 2026-04-30)+4.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is cut (currently NEW as of 2026-04-30)-8.0 pts
- If consumer_discretionary sector trend falls from +0.10 into 'weakening' (<= -0.20)-5.0 pts
- If growth state reverses from +0.25 (positive) to -0.25 (negative)-4.0 pts
Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-04-308d agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 30, 2026, Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. (the “Company”) issued a press release regarding its financial results for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of this press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this report. This information shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, and is not incorporated by reference into any filing by the Company, whether made before or aft…
earnings preannouncementpositivescore 60 - 2026-02-272mo agoItem 1.01
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On February 27, 2026, Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. (the “Company”) completed its previously announced offering of $1,250,000,000 aggregate principal amount of 4.750% Senior Notes due 2033 (the “2033 Notes”) and $1,250,000,000 aggregate principal amount of the Company’s 5.250% Senior Notes due 2038 (the “2038 Notes” and, together with the 2033 Notes, the “Notes”), pursuant to an underwriting agreement, dated as of February 12, 2026 (the “Underwriting…
capital allocationneutralscore 13 - 2026-02-172mo agoItem 5.02
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On February 10, 2026, the Board of Directors (the “Board”) of Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. (the “Company”) appointed Christopher Wiernicki as a director of the Company. Mr. Wiernicki served as Chairman and CEO of American Bureau of Shipping (ABS), a leading maritime classification society, from 2011 through 2025. Prior to that role, he held other s…
executive changeneutralscore 13 - 2026-02-272mo agoItem 2.03
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant. The information set forth under
capital allocationnegativescore 10 - 2026-02-132mo agoItem 1.01
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On February 12, 2026 , Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. (the “Company”) entered into an underwriting agreement (the “Underwriting Agreement”) with J.P. Morgan Securities LLC, Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC and PNC Capital Markets LLC, as representatives of the several underwriters named in Exhibit A thereto , relating to the issuance and sale by the Company of $1,250,000,000 aggregate principal amount of the Company’s 4.750% Senior Notes due 2033 and $1,250,0…
capital allocationneutralscore 9
Score history
The composite score, snapshot by snapshot. The dotted line at zero separates leaning-positive from leaning-negative.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.