Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-27 · fmp
REFORMATION INC (REF)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryApparel - Footwear & AccessoriesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$18.41+8.36%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryApparel - Footwear & AccessoriesSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Oct 4, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
0.64 → 0.64 EPS · FY ending Dec 27, 2027 · 5 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 5 to 5; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for REF yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
classroom expansion | A supporting condition in REFORMATION INC's published investment case. The stated target is 20 new classrooms. | Intact | fewer than 20 classrooms added in the next year | 20 classrooms vs >=20 target Headline reports Reformation Academy adding 20 classrooms, directly satisfying the expansion target. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-27 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 5, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earningsObserved price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
REF is a growth-sensitive Consumer Discretionary name, but the evidence is too limited to classify it more firmly. Its thesis state is insufficient, and confidence in this briefing is low.
The snapshot provides no valuation level or market-expectations estimate, so it does not support calling REF cheap, fair, or expensive versus peers. Priced-in fragility is low, with no fragility gates triggered, but that does not establish what expectations are reflected in the valuation.
Near term, REF reported an earnings beat on September 10, 2026, and its risk label has eased from elevated to moderate. The near-term miss-risk estimate is 24%; the snapshot flags its smaller size and a deep past miss as reasons for continued caution.
A favorable sector setup depends on bellwethers NKE, DECK, and CROX continuing to beat earnings and guide higher. Misses or lower guidance from those companies could weaken the sector tailwind, while GDP growth slowing materially from 2.1% to below 2% would pose a particular risk to growth-sensitive discretionary businesses.
Over the next 1-3 years, REF’s thesis hinges more on sector signals and economic growth than on a well-established company-specific trend in this evidence. The recent earnings beat is positive, but the overall read remains uncertain. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A primary condition in REFORMATION INC's published investment case. The stated target is between $602M and $606M. |
| Intact |
| revenue falls below $602 million in FY26 |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
new store openings | A supporting condition in REFORMATION INC's published investment case. The stated target is 15 to 16 new stores. | Intact | fewer than 15 new stores opened in FY26 | 15-16 stores vs 15-16 target Reformation reaffirmed 15-16 store opening guidance for FY26 alongside 24.1% revenue growth in Q2. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Oct 4, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$0.61 → $0.64 · observed estimates
$0.70B → $0.70B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-28 | $0.61 | $703,500,000 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-29 | $0.64 | $703,500,000 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-30 | $0.64 | $703,500,000 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-01 | $0.64 | $703,500,000 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-02 | $0.64 | $703,500,000 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-03 | $0.64 | $703,500,000 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-04 | $0.64 | $703,500,000 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-05 | $0.64 | $703,500,000 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-06 | $0.64 | $703,500,000 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-07 | $0.64 | $703,500,000 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-08 | $0.64 | $703,500,000 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-09 | $0.64 | $703,500,000 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-10 | $0.64 | $703,500,000 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-11 | $0.64 | $703,500,000 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-12 | $0.64 | $703,500,000 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-13 | $0.64 | $703,500,000 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-14 | $0.64 | $703,500,000 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-15 | $0.64 | $703,500,000 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-16 | $0.64 | $703,500,000 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-17 | $0.64 | $703,500,000 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-18 | $0.64 | $703,500,000 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-19 | $0.64 | $703,500,000 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-20 | $0.64 | $703,500,000 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-21 | $0.64 | $703,500,000 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-22 | $0.64 | $703,500,000 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-23 | $0.64 | $703,500,000 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-24 | $0.64 | $703,500,000 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-25 | $0.64 | $703,500,000 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-26 | $0.64 | $703,500,000 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-27 | $0.64 | $703,500,000 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-28 | $0.64 | $703,500,000 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-29 | $0.64 | $703,500,000 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-30 | $0.64 | $703,500,000 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-31 | $0.64 | $703,500,000 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-11-01 | $0.64 | $703,500,000 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-11-02 | $0.64 | $703,500,000 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-11-03 | $0.64 | $703,500,000 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-11-04 | $0.64 | $703,500,000 | 5 / 6 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 7 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
1 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.