RTX
RTX CorporationNYSEIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-05-08
As of May 8, 2026, RTX has a composite score of 20.1, categorized as "mild favorable." This score is influenced by a medium confidence level of 76.8 and is driven by macroeconomic factors, particularly growth and labor conditions. The sector score is lower at 16.7, indicating potential challenges in that area. The overall risk is labeled as moderate, with a valuation score of 64.3, which is considered fair.
Price
Daily closes from AlphaVantage. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Factor signals
Read top-to-bottom: thesis (is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold), watch flags (has something changed worth re-reading), and position context (how violent might the path be). Each pill is a parallel diagnostic — never aggregated into a single score.
Thesis
— is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold?Why this rank
- Direction share1.00
- Slope (norm)-0.07
- Bonus0.00
Why this rank
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
Why this rank
Watch
— has something changed worth re-reading?Why this setup
EPS estimate $1.65 → $1.66 (+0.4% / 30d). 7 raised, 6 cut, 18 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 3 maintained. 65% of analysts rate Buy.
1 positive, 0 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
F4 · Management deep-dive — recent events, stated priorities, guidance track record
Recent 8-K events
4 material events in the last 24 months — top 4 listed below.
Stated priorities
3 priorityies extracted from earnings transcripts (as of 2026-05-08).
- 1.Increase revenue guidancegrowthon track100% progress
4/21: “Updates outlook for full year 2026... Adjusted sales* of $92.5 - $93.5 billion, up from $92.0 - $93.0 billion.”
Why this status
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Revenue guidance increased from $92.0-$93.0B to $92.5-$93.5B, indicating a positive trajectory. Revenue in 2026-Q1 was $22.08B, up from $17.37B in 2025-Q4, showing strong growth.
- 2.Maintain strong free cash flowcapital allocationmixed65% progress
4/21: “Confirms free cash flow* of $8.25 - $8.75 billion.”
Why this status
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Free cash flow guidance confirmed at $8.25-$8.75B. Cash from operations in 2026-Q1 was $1.86B, a significant improvement from -$1.35B in 2025-Q4, indicating progress towards maintaining strong cash flow.
- 3.Increase adjusted EPS guidancegrowthon track100% progress
4/21: “Adjusted EPS* of $6.70 - $6.90, up from $6.60 - $6.80.”
Why this status
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. EPS guidance increased from $6.60-$6.80 to $6.70-$6.90. Diluted EPS in 2026-Q1 was $1.51, up from $1.41 in 2025-Q3, showing positive momentum in earnings performance.
Guidance track record
Insufficient guidance history for this ticker.
Position context
— how violent might the path be while I hold it?Why this risk level
Recent vol — 30d annualized 27%; 252d 23%.
Drawdown — Max 1y −19%. Bad day move −2%.
Beta to sector ETF (XLI) — 0.76 over 1y.
Liquidity — score 100/100.
Sub-scores — vol 61/100, drawdown 63/100, beta 76/100, earnings vol —.
via XLI
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive — historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only — describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-05-08.
What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-05-08
Management scorecard
How management runs the business — capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What management is focused on
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
- #1
Increase revenue guidance
GrowthNew since 2026-05-04RTX aims to increase its revenue guidance for the fiscal year 2026.
On trackStated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Revenue guidance increased from $92.0-$93.0B to $92.5-$93.5B, indicating a positive trajectory. Revenue in 2026-Q1 was $22.08B, up from $17.37B in 2025-Q4, showing strong growth.
Revenue guidance increased from $92.0-$93.0B to $92.5-$93.5B100%CEO/CFO:“Updates outlook for full year 2026... Adjusted sales* of $92.5 - $93.5 billion, up from $92.0 - $93.0 billion.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-04-21Stated 2 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04Show history (2)
- 2026-Q1Multiple sources
“Updates outlook for full year 2026... Adjusted sales* of $92.5 - $93.5 billion.”
- 2025-Q4Multiple sources
“Outlook for full year 2026 Adjusted sales* of $92.0 to $93.0 billion.”
- #2
Maintain strong free cash flow
Capital allocationNew since 2026-05-04RTX is committed to maintaining strong free cash flow for fiscal year 2026.
On track →MixedStated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Free cash flow guidance confirmed at $8.25-$8.75B. Cash from operations in 2026-Q1 was $1.86B, a significant improvement from -$1.35B in 2025-Q4, indicating progress towards maintaining strong cash flow.
Free cash flow guidance confirmed at $8.25-$8.75B65%CEO/CFO:“Confirms free cash flow* of $8.25 - $8.75 billion.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-04-21Stated 2 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04Show history (2)
- 2026-Q1Multiple sources
“Confirms free cash flow* of $8.25 - $8.75 billion.”
- 2025-Q4Multiple sources
“Free cash flow* of $8.25 - $8.75 billion.”
- #3
Increase adjusted EPS guidance
GrowthNew since 2026-05-04RTX plans to increase its adjusted EPS guidance for fiscal year 2026.
On trackStated in 2 of last 2 quarters. EPS guidance increased from $6.60-$6.80 to $6.70-$6.90. Diluted EPS in 2026-Q1 was $1.51, up from $1.41 in 2025-Q3, showing positive momentum in earnings performance.
EPS guidance increased from $6.60-$6.80 to $6.70-$6.90100%CEO/CFO:“Adjusted EPS* of $6.70 - $6.90, up from $6.60 - $6.80.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-04-21Stated 2 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04Show history (2)
- 2026-Q1Multiple sources
“Adjusted EPS* of $6.70 - $6.90, up from $6.60 - $6.80.”
- 2025-Q4Multiple sources
“Adjusted EPS* of $6.60 - $6.80.”
How this stock is priced
Two ways to read price: against peers in the same business, and against the company's own history.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
P/E over the last 5 years
45 monthly pointsHow this compares
A side-by-side read on composite, valuation, and risk versus peers.
| Stock | Composite | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
RTX RTX Corporation | +20 | fair | moderate |
CAT Caterpillar Inc. | +13 | expensive | moderate |
GE GE Aerospace | +11 | expensive | moderate |
GEV GE Vernova | +10 | full | moderate |
BA Boeing | -4.8 | expensive | moderate |
Risk — how this stock moves
What a normal day looks like, what a bad day looks like, and the worst the last year has thrown at it.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios — if X happens, the score would shift by about Y points. These are not predictions.
- If industrials sector trend rises from +0.05 into 'improving' (>= +0.20)+5.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is cut (currently RAISED as of 2026-04-21)-16 pts
- If industrials sector trend falls from +0.05 into 'weakening' (<= -0.20)-5.0 pts
- If growth state reverses from +0.25 (positive) to -0.25 (negative)-4.0 pts
- If labor state reverses from -0.31 (negative) to +0.31 (positive)-3.7 pts
Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-04-2117d agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 21, 2026, RTX Corporation (the “ Company ”) issued a press release announcing its first quarter 2026 results. The press release issued April 21, 2026 is furnished herewith as Exhibit No. 99 to this Report, and shall not be deemed filed for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “ Exchange Act ”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that Section and shall not be deemed to be incorporated…
earnings preannouncementpositivescore 48 - 2026-03-052mo agoItem 5.02
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On March 5, 2026, James A. Winnefeld Jr. notified the Board of Directors (the “Board”) of RTX Corporation (the “Company”) of his intention to resign as a director of the Company, effective as of March 5, 2026. Mr. Winnefeld’s resignation was not the result of any dispute or disagreement with the Company or the Company’s Board on any matter relating…
executive changeneutralscore 13 - 2026-01-273mo agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On January 27, 2026, RTX Corporation (the “ Company ”) issued a press release announcing its fourth quarter 2025 results. The press release issued January 27, 2026 is furnished herewith as Exhibit No. 99 to this Report, and shall not be deemed filed for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “ Exchange Act ”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that Section and shall not be deemed to be incorpor…
earnings preannouncementneutralscore 6 - 2025-11-135mo agoItem 8.01
Other Events. On November 7, 2025, RTX Corporation (the “Company”) initiated a buy-out conversion of a group annuity contract purchased by the RTX Consolidated Pension Plan (the “Plan”) from The Prudential Insurance Company of America (“Prudential”). The transaction will result in the transfer of approximately $2.5 billion of gross pension obligations from the Plan to Prudential. Assets from the Plan’s trust were previously used to purchase a group annuity contract with a buy-out conversion o…
legal regulatorynegativescore 1 - 2025-09-247mo agoItem 8.01
Other Events. On September 19, 2025, RTX Corporation (the “ Company ”) became aware of a product cybersecurity incident involving ransomware on systems that support its Multi-User System Environment (“ MUSE ”) passenger processing software. This software enables multiple airlines to share check-in and gate resources at airports, including baggage handling. The MUSE airport systems operate outside of the RTX enterprise network, residing on customer-specific networks. Upon detecting the inciden…
legal regulatorynegativescore 0
Score history
The composite score, snapshot by snapshot. The dotted line at zero separates leaning-positive from leaning-negative.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.