Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Seacoast Banking Corporation of Florida (SBCF)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
$33.60-1.96%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
2.77 → 2.73 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 5 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 4 to 5; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for SBCF yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Sustain net interest margin near 3.8% | Net interest margin rose to 3.83%. | Intact | net interest margin falls below 3.6% | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
SBCF is a regional bank with a measured growth thesis, rather than a turnaround story. The thesis is intact, and its recent signal improved from mixed to mildly favorable, though earnings quality and recent financial performance remain neutral.
The valuation evidence is mixed: SBCF is described as cheap versus peers, but its overall value assessment is expensive. The expectations gap is small, and pricing is tagged as justified, with low fragility; this suggests the current setup does not depend on a large expectations reset.
Over the near term, results have had positive earnings-beat signals in July and October, and reported organic loan growth continued, though its annualized rate eased from 16% in Q2 to 13% in Q3. The adjusted efficiency ratio improved through Q3, while management reports completing customer conversion and integration work; a guidance cut remains a key risk, despite the stated low miss risk.
Over the next several quarters, the thesis depends on continued organic loan growth, disciplined expenses, and sustained benefits from the completed integration. A guidance cut or Federal Reserve rate cuts would be unfavorable according to the evidence, while continued earnings strength and higher guidance from sector bellwethers would support the sector backdrop.
For a 1 to 3 year view, SBCF’s business thesis remains intact, supported by growth and operating progress, but the valuation assessment is expensive and interest-rate sensitivity is a meaningful risk. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A primary condition in Seacoast Banking Corporation of Florida's published investment case. The stated target is >=7% annualized deposit growth. |
| Intact |
| organic deposit growth falls below 5% |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 4 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Loan growth post VBI legal close has averaged 11.6% driven by 9.6 points of commercial loan growth and 1.9 points of residential loan growth.” “• Accretion on acquired loans of $8.5 million, net of amortization of intangibles of $9.9 million in Q3 2026 resulted in a $(0.01) impact to diluted earnings per share.” Revenue was $262.646 million in 2026-Q3. Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Maintain positive revenue growth | A primary condition in Seacoast Banking Corporation of Florida's published investment case. The stated target is >0% YoY revenue growth. | Intact | YoY revenue growth falls below 0% next year | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 4 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Loan growth post VBI legal close has averaged 11.6% driven by 9.6 points of commercial loan growth and 1.9 points of residential loan growth.” “• Accretion on acquired loans of $8.5 million, net of amortization of intangibles of $9.9 million in Q3 2026 resulted in a $(0.01) impact to diluted earnings per share.” Revenue was $262.646 million in 2026-Q3. Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Improve shareholder returns via net income growth | The bank aims to improve shareholder returns. | Intact | net income falls below $30M in 2026-Q1 | Net income: $59.868M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: net income >= $31.9M in 2026-Q1. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Nov 4, 202659,868,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$2.71 → $2.73 · observed estimates
$0.90B → $0.90B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $2.71 | $895,847,000 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-07-25 | $2.71 | $895,847,000 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-07-26 | $2.71 | $895,847,000 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-07-27 | $2.71 | $895,847,000 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-07-28 | $2.71 | $895,847,000 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-07-29 | $2.71 | $895,847,000 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-07-30 | $2.71 | $895,847,000 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | $2.75 | $902,125,400 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-01 | $2.75 | $902,125,400 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-02 | $2.75 | $900,106,750 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | $2.75 | $900,106,750 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | $2.75 | $902,125,400 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-05 | $2.76 | $900,985,400 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-06 | $2.75 | $902,125,400 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-08 | $2.76 | $900,985,400 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-09 | $2.76 | $900,985,400 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | $2.76 | $900,985,400 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-12 | $2.76 | $900,985,400 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-13 | $2.76 | $900,985,400 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | $2.76 | $900,985,400 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | $2.76 | $900,985,400 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-16 | $2.76 | $900,985,400 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | $2.76 | $900,985,400 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | $2.76 | $900,985,400 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | $2.76 | $900,985,400 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | $2.77 | $900,985,400 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-21 | $2.77 | $900,985,400 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-22 | $2.77 | $900,985,400 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-23 | $2.77 | $900,985,400 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-24 | $2.77 | $900,985,400 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-25 | $2.77 | $900,985,400 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-26 | $2.77 | $900,985,400 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-27 | $2.77 | $900,985,400 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-28 | $2.77 | $900,985,400 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-29 | $2.77 | $900,985,400 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-30 | $2.77 | $900,985,400 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-31 | $2.77 | $900,985,400 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-01 | $2.77 | $900,985,400 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-02 | $2.77 | $900,985,400 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-03 | $2.77 | $900,985,400 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-04 | $2.77 | $900,985,400 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-05 | $2.77 | $900,985,400 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-06 | $2.77 | $900,985,400 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-07 | $2.77 | $900,985,400 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-08 | $2.77 | $900,985,400 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-09 | $2.77 | $900,985,400 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-10 | $2.77 | $900,985,400 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-11 | $2.77 | $900,985,400 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-12 | $2.77 | $900,985,400 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-13 | $2.77 | $900,985,400 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-14 | $2.77 | $900,985,400 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-15 | $2.77 | $900,985,400 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-16 | $2.77 | $900,985,400 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-17 | $2.77 | $900,985,400 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-18 | $2.77 | $900,985,400 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-19 | $2.77 | $900,985,400 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-20 | $2.77 | $900,985,400 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-21 | $2.77 | $900,985,400 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-22 | $2.77 | $900,985,400 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-23 | $2.77 | $900,985,400 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-24 | $2.77 | $900,544,800 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-25 | $2.77 | $900,544,800 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-26 | $2.77 | $900,544,800 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-27 | $2.77 | $900,544,800 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-28 | $2.77 | $900,544,800 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-29 | $2.77 | $900,544,800 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-30 | $2.77 | $900,544,800 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-01 | $2.77 | $900,544,800 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-02 | $2.77 | $900,544,800 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-03 | $2.77 | $900,544,800 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-04 | $2.77 | $900,544,800 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-05 | $2.77 | $900,544,800 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-06 | $2.77 | $900,544,800 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-07 | $2.77 | $900,544,800 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-08 | $2.77 | $899,269,220 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-09 | $2.76 | $899,269,220 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-10 | $2.76 | $899,269,220 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-11 | $2.76 | $899,269,220 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-12 | $2.76 | $899,269,220 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-13 | $2.76 | $899,224,800 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-14 | $2.76 | $899,224,800 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-15 | $2.76 | $899,224,800 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-16 | $2.76 | $899,224,800 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-17 | $2.76 | $899,224,800 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-18 | $2.76 | $899,224,800 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-19 | $2.76 | $899,224,800 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-20 | $2.76 | $899,224,800 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-21 | $2.76 | $899,224,800 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-22 | $2.76 | $899,224,800 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-23 | $2.76 | $899,224,800 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-24 | $2.76 | $899,224,800 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-25 | $2.76 | $899,224,800 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-26 | $2.76 | $899,224,800 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-27 | $2.76 | $899,224,800 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-28 | $2.76 | $899,224,800 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-29 | $2.72 | $899,482,800 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-30 | $2.73 | $901,627,120 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-31 | $2.73 | $901,627,120 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-11-01 | $2.73 | $901,627,120 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-11-02 | $2.73 | $901,627,120 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-11-03 | $2.73 | $901,627,120 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-11-04 | $2.73 | $901,627,120 | 5 / 4 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 2 Buy / Strong Buy · 4 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 1 recorded
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.