SBUX
StarbucksNASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-05-08
As of May 8, 2026, SBUX has a mixed analyst signal with a composite score of -0.3. The score reflects medium confidence at 71.4 and is influenced by various factors, including a macro score of 17.9 and a sector score of 12.3. The top drivers include macro growth, rates, inflation, and labor conditions. This analysis is provisional.
Price
Daily closes from AlphaVantage. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Factor signals
Read top-to-bottom: thesis (is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold), watch flags (has something changed worth re-reading), and position context (how violent might the path be). Each pill is a parallel diagnostic — never aggregated into a single score.
Thesis
— is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold?Why this rank
- Direction share1.00
- Slope (norm)0.03
- Bonus0.00
Why this rank
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
Why this rank
Watch
— has something changed worth re-reading?Why this setup
EPS estimate $0.65 → $0.65 (-0.3% / 30d). 12 raised, 7 cut, 29 covering analysts.
1 upgrade, 0 downgrades / 30d, 15 maintained. 44% of analysts rate Buy.
10 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 9.6% above current price.
1 positive, 0 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
F4 · Management deep-dive — recent events, stated priorities, guidance track record
Recent 8-K events
5 material events in the last 24 months — top 5 listed below.
Stated priorities
3 priorityies extracted from earnings transcripts (as of 2026-05-08).
- 1.Unleash innovation for growthgrowthwatchprovisional
7/29: “CEO: 'In 2026, we'll unleash a wave of innovation that fuels growth.'”
Why this status
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Q2 consolidated net revenues increased 9% to $9.5 billion, indicating progress in growth initiatives. The trajectory shows delivering results with innovation efforts contributing to revenue growth.
- 2.Finalize joint ventureregulatorywatchprovisional
4/28: “The company announced the closing of its joint venture with Boyu Capital.”
Why this status
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. The joint venture with Boyu Capital was finalized as planned, marking a significant milestone in Starbucks' strategy for growth in China. This completion aligns with management's stated timeline and strategic goals.
- 3.Restructuring activitiescostwatchprovisional
9/25: “The Company estimates that it will incur approximately $1 billion related to the store closures and restructuring activities.”
Why this status
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. The restructuring plan, including store closures, is underway with 7 stores closed in Q2 FY26. Management's focus on cost discipline is evident, though financial impact details are limited.
Guidance track record
Insufficient guidance history for this ticker.
Position context
— how violent might the path be while I hold it?Why this risk level
Recent vol — 30d annualized 32%; 252d 30%.
Drawdown — Max 1y −19%. Bad day move −3%.
Beta to sector ETF (XLY) — 0.04 over 1y.
Liquidity — score 100/100.
Sub-scores — vol 51/100, drawdown 63/100, beta 5/100, earnings vol —.
Calm + bullish setup — clean pre-earnings positioning pattern.
via XLY
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive — historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only — describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-05-08.
What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-05-08
Management scorecard
How management runs the business — capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What management is focused on
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
- #1
Unleash innovation for growth
GrowthNew since 2026-05-04Focus on innovation to drive growth and enhance customer service.
WatchStated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Q2 consolidated net revenues increased 9% to $9.5 billion, indicating progress in growth initiatives. The trajectory shows delivering results with innovation efforts contributing to revenue growth.
No scoreCEO/CFO:“CEO: 'In 2026, we'll unleash a wave of innovation that fuels growth.'”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2025-07-29Stated 2 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04provisionalShow history (2)
- 2026-Q2Press release
“Our second quarter marked the turn in our turnaround as our Back to Starbucks plan drove both top and bottom line growth.”
- 2025-Q3Multiple sources
“In 2026, we'll unleash a wave of innovation that fuels growth.”
- #2
Finalize joint venture
RegulatoryNew since 2026-05-04Complete the joint venture with Boyu Capital for Starbucks retail in China.
WatchStated in 2 of last 2 quarters. The joint venture with Boyu Capital was finalized as planned, marking a significant milestone in Starbucks' strategy for growth in China. This completion aligns with management's stated timeline and strategic goals.
No scoreCEO/CFO:“The company announced the closing of its joint venture with Boyu Capital.”Press releaseSource dated 2026-04-28Stated 2 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04provisionalShow history (2)
- 2026-Q2Press release
“The company announced the closing of its previously announced joint venture with Boyu Capital.”
- 2025-Q4Multiple sources
“We expect to finalize the joint venture in Q2 FY2026, after completing required regulatory approvals.”
- #3
Restructuring activities
CostNew since 2026-05-04Implement restructuring activities including store closures and support organization transformation.
WatchStated in 2 of last 2 quarters. The restructuring plan, including store closures, is underway with 7 stores closed in Q2 FY26. Management's focus on cost discipline is evident, though financial impact details are limited.
No scoreCEO/CFO:“The Company estimates that it will incur approximately $1 billion related to the store closures and restructuring activities.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2025-09-25Stated 2 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04provisionalShow history (2)
- 2026-Q2Press release
“Includes the impact of 7 stores closed in Q2 FY26 as part of our 'Back to Starbucks' restructuring plan.”
- 2025-Q4Multiple sources
“The Company estimates that it will incur approximately $1 billion related to the store closures, support organization transformation, and other restructuring activities.”
How this stock is priced
Two ways to read price: against peers in the same business, and against the company's own history.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Around its own typical valuation.
P/E over the last 5 years
71 monthly pointsHow this compares
A side-by-side read on composite, valuation, and risk versus peers.
| Stock | Composite | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
SBUX Starbucks | -0.3 | expensive | moderate |
AMZN Amazon | +16 | full | moderate |
TSLA Tesla, Inc. | +0.4 | expensive | elevated |
HD Home Depot (The) | +14 | full | moderate |
CVNA Carvana | +14 | — | high |
Risk — how this stock moves
What a normal day looks like, what a bad day looks like, and the worst the last year has thrown at it.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios — if X happens, the score would shift by about Y points. These are not predictions.
- If consumer_discretionary sector trend rises from +0.10 into 'improving' (>= +0.20)+5.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is raised (currently NEW as of 2025-11-03)+4.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is cut (currently NEW as of 2025-11-03)-8.0 pts
- If consumer_discretionary sector trend falls from +0.10 into 'weakening' (<= -0.20)-5.0 pts
- If growth state reverses from +0.25 (positive) to -0.25 (negative)-4.0 pts
Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-04-2810d agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 28, 2026, Starbucks Corporation issued a press release announcing its financial results for the quarter ended March 29, 2026. A copy of the press release is attached as Exhibit 99.1.
earnings preannouncementpositivescore 57 - 2026-04-021mo agoItem 7.01
Regulation FD Disclosure. As previously disclosed on November 3, 2025, Starbucks entered an agreement to form a joint venture with Boyu Capital. On April 2, 2026, Starbucks announced that, following the satisfaction of all necessary closing conditions, it completed the transaction. Pursuant to the transaction, funds managed by Boyu Capital have acquired a 60% interest in Starbucks retail operations in China. Starbucks retains a 40% interest and will serve as the owner and licensor of the Star…
mna activitypositivescore 23 - 2026-01-283mo agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On January 28, 2026, Starbucks Corporation issued a press release announcing its financial results for the quarter ended December 28, 2025. A copy of the press release is attached as Exhibit 99.1.
earnings preannouncementneutralscore 6 - 2025-11-155mo agoItem 5.02
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. Effective as of the close of business on November 14, 2025, Mr. Lerman ceased serving as evp, chief legal officer of the Company. Mr. Lerman will remain with the Company in an advisory capacity during a transition period in order to ensure an orderly transition of responsibilities. SIGNATURES Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities Exchange…
executive changeneutralscore 1 - 2025-07-0210mo agoItem 5.02
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On June 29, 2025, the independent members of the Board of Directors and the Compensation and Management Development Committee of Starbucks Corporation (the “Company”, “we”, or “our”) approved a “Back to Starbucks” grant of performance-based restricted stock units (“PRSUs”) for each of the Company’s continuing named executive officers. This equity a…
executive changeneutralscore 0
Score history
The composite score, snapshot by snapshot. The dotted line at zero separates leaning-positive from leaning-negative.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.