Starbucks (SBUX)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$104.47-1.28%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-09-04
Research Workspace
Put SBUX beside peers and holdings, graph the same metric, and keep your notes with the evidence.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Industries move in repeating boom-and-bust cycles. This shows where this stock’s industry sits in that cycle, stage by stage (recovery → expansion → supercycle → steady → deceleration → contraction), from its fundamentals (orders, revenue, capital spending), not the stock’s price.
A booming industry is a tailwind for the names in it; a contracting one is a headwind. Companies in the same industry tend to rise and fall together with the cycle, the way a tide lifts and lowers every boat in the harbor at once, so a large part of a stock’s swing can come from where its industry sits rather than from the company itself. It’s context for reading the company’s results, not a buy/sell call. Full explanation →
Restaurants is in steady. Describes the industry's cycle state, not a call on this stock.
The stage band shows the industry’s cycle over the chart’s timeline (each color a stage); a ▼ marks a quarter its growth inflected down — amber is an unconfirmed watch, red is confirmed the next quarter. Use “Overlay cycle on chart” to tint the price chart by stage. The industry’s fundamentals, not a signal on this stock.
Primary pillar broken — Revenue growth under 'Back to Starbucks' strategy: rev -1.0% vs $9.53B target.
View ThesisRevenue growth is slowing — up about 4% over the past year and decelerating.
View GrowthMiddle-of-the-pack quality for its industry.
View QualityMiddle-of-the-pack management execution.
View ManagementExpectations look high — the market is pricing in about 26% growth a year, above the roughly 1% analysts expect, leaving little room for error.
View ValuationModerate volatility — typically moves about 1% a day.
View RiskStarbucks must successfully execute its 'Back to Starbucks' strategy to justify its price. Revenue growth is currently under pressure, with a recent decline of 1.0% against a target of $9.53 billion. The stock trades at 43× P/E versus a peer median of 17×, indicating that the market is pricing in more growth than expected. The primary risk is that if Starbucks cuts guidance on the next call, it could lead to a significant decline in estimates. Peer multiples imply a price about 26% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis).
Trailing returns as of 2026-09-04. SBUX is total return (includes dividends); the S&P 500 benchmark is price return (the index excludes dividends).
Based on 36 analysts currently covering SBUX (as of Sep 2026).
Based on 9 Wall Street analysts offering 12-month price targets for SBUX in the last 4 months.
Continue this research
Compare SBUX with peers and holdings, graph the same reported metric, keep your questions beside the evidence, and return when the facts change.
Free account required to save the handoff. No credit card.
| Compare | Company | Living FV | P/E | Revenue % | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SBUX Selected company | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Peer Add a competitor | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Holding Compare a holding | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review |
Selected metric trend
Quarterly · checked companies · value or % of revenue
A consensus fair price across 9 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-09-04. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A price-focused, side-by-side fair-value read versus Restaurants — fair value, gap to price, and forward P/E.
Our valuation methods disagree too much on this name right now. Rather than print a number we don't believe, we're holding it back until they converge.
Compare the value case
Put SBUX next to peers and holdings, compare Living FV and multiples, then graph the driver behind the difference.
Advances: Finalize and leverage joint venture in China
Narrowing case supports joint venture stability in China.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
End-of-day figures as of 2026-09-04. EPS is implied from price ÷ P/E. Not investment advice.
Current $104.47
The last 12 months of price, then the range of analyst 12-month targets from today’s $104.47.
Analyst ratings and price targets are third-party Wall Street estimates, not QuarterlyIQ’s view. Not investment advice.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Around the middle on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
Advances: Unleash innovation to fuel growth
New wellness bar aligns with innovation and growth strategy.
Advances: Restructuring and cost discipline to support growth
Debt paydown enhances financial flexibility for growth initiatives.
Threatens: Finalize and leverage joint venture in China
Brand perception in China impacts joint venture success.
Advances: Restructuring and cost discipline to support growth
Layoffs support cost discipline and restructuring efforts.
Threatens: Restructuring and cost discipline to support growth
Layoffs indicate potential issues with cost discipline.
Threatens: Restructuring and cost discipline to support growth
Continued layoffs suggest ongoing restructuring challenges.
Sam's Club adds coffee brand, increasing competition.
