Starbucks (SBUX)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-07-07
$102.11-2.07%
Close 2026-07-06 · 1-day change
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Industries move in repeating boom-and-bust cycles. This shows where this stock’s industry sits in that cycle, stage by stage (recovery → expansion → supercycle → steady → deceleration → contraction), from its fundamentals (orders, revenue, capital spending), not the stock’s price.
A booming industry is a tailwind for the names in it; a contracting one is a headwind. Companies in the same industry tend to rise and fall together with the cycle, the way a tide lifts and lowers every boat in the harbor at once, so a large part of a stock’s swing can come from where its industry sits rather than from the company itself. It’s context for reading the company’s results, not a buy/sell call. Full explanation →
Restaurants is in steady. Describes the industry's cycle state, not a call on this stock.
The stage band shows the industry’s cycle over the chart’s timeline (each color a stage); a ▼ marks a quarter its growth inflected down — amber is an unconfirmed watch, red is confirmed the next quarter. Use “Overlay cycle on chart” to tint the price chart by stage. The industry’s fundamentals, not a signal on this stock.
Management is running behind on a stated commitment.
View ThesisRevenue growth is slowing — up about 6% over the past year and decelerating.
View GrowthMiddle-of-the-pack quality for its industry.
View QualityMiddle-of-the-pack management execution.
View ManagementExpectations look high — what the market is pricing in runs ahead of what analysts forecast.
View ValuationModerate volatility — typically moves about 1% a day.
View RiskStarbucks aims to grow by expanding its overseas stores and innovating its offerings. Recent earnings showed a 23% surprise beat, indicating strong performance. It trades at 74.5× P/E, which is much higher than the 19.6× peer median. The market is pricing in more growth than expected, suggesting high expectations. A risk is that cutting guidance could hurt credibility, with a 25% miss probability. Peer multiples imply a price about 45% below where it trades; this read is provisional.
Trailing returns as of 2026-07-06. SBUX is total return (includes dividends); the S&P 500 benchmark is price return (the index excludes dividends).
Based on 37 analysts currently covering SBUX (as of Jul 2026).
Based on 9 Wall Street analysts offering 12-month price targets for SBUX in the last 4 months.
A consensus fair price across 12 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $102.11. As of 2026-07-08. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A price-focused, side-by-side fair-value read versus Restaurants — fair value, gap to price, and forward P/E.
Global struggles in China could impact joint venture plans.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
End-of-day figures as of 2026-07-06. EPS is implied from price ÷ P/E. Not investment advice.
Current $102.11
The last 12 months of price, then the range of analyst 12-month targets from today’s $102.11.
Analyst ratings and price targets are third-party Wall Street estimates, not QuarterlyIQ’s view. Not investment advice.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Around the middle on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
Positive stock valuation boost from margin repair hopes.
Advances: Unleash innovation for growth
CEO's plan aligns with innovation for growth objective.
Concerns over overvaluation after expansion plans.
Advances: Restructuring activities for cost savings
Cost savings align with restructuring activities objective.
Threatens: Restructuring activities for cost savings
Job cuts indicate struggles in cost restructuring efforts.
Lawsuit over working conditions could harm reputation.
Plans for faster growth in India align with objectives.