Sagimet Biosciences Inc (SGMT)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-05
$9.12-8.71%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · SGMT
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -58.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | Not available |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
A comparable growth gap is not available.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 117 industry peers
SGMT — debt issuance
Dated 2026-09-30
Other Events. Press Release On September 30, 2026, the Company issued a press release announcing positive 52-week results from the Phase 3 ASC40-304 open-label extension clinical trial of denifanstat in patients with moderate to severe acne vulgaris, conducted by license partner Ascletis BioScience Co. Ltd. in China. The full text of the press release is filed as Exhibit 99.2 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and incorporated herein by reference. At-the-Market Offering Prospectus Supplement…
Why it matters: The U.S. acne trial is the key test of denifanstat. Starting on time confirms the planned launch; a delay puts the timeline in doubt.
Watch forThe company confirms it dosed the first patient in AURORA in October 2026. It also shares the trial design.
Also watch forThe company reports no first patient dosed by the end of 2026, or delays the trial start.
Why it matters: Positive results would support denifanstat as an acne treatment. A miss would weaken the case for U.S. development.
Watch forTopline data in 2H 2027 meet the trial's primary endpoint.
Also watch forTopline data miss the primary endpoint, or the readout moves past 2H 2027.
Why it matters: A Phase 2 start would move Sagimet's follow-on acne drug into patient testing. A delay would slow this second program.
Supportive ifSagimet starts the TVB-3567 Phase 2 acne trial by December 31, 2026.
Worry ifThe Phase 2 trial has not started by December 31, 2026, or the company reports a delay.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$245 on $10,000 · ±2.4% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $764 loss on $10,000 · 7.6% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,841 loss on $10,000 · 48.4% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.