SJM
J.M. Smucker Company (The)NYSEConsumer StaplesPackaged FoodsSnapshot 2026-05-08
As of May 8, 2026, SJM has a composite score of -9.7, indicating a mixed signal. The score is influenced by several factors, including a medium confidence level of 74.2 and a moderate risk label. Key drivers include macroeconomic conditions related to labor, inflation, rates, and growth, with both favorable and unfavorable scenarios impacting the overall assessment. This analysis is provisional.
Price
Daily closes from AlphaVantage. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Factor signals
Read top-to-bottom: thesis (is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold), watch flags (has something changed worth re-reading), and position context (how violent might the path be). Each pill is a parallel diagnostic — never aggregated into a single score.
Thesis
— is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold?Why this rank
- Direction share0.54
- Slope (norm)-0.91
- Bonus0.00
Why this rank
Trailing four: 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2, 2026-Q3
Why this rank
Watch
— has something changed worth re-reading?Buyback / dividend activity on weakening fundamentals — historically a value-trap pattern (48% T+1y positive return vs 69% baseline in IT 2024-26).
Why this setup
EPS estimate $2.21 → $2.21 (+0.4% / 30d). 2 raised, 2 cut, 11 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 4 maintained. 50% of analysts rate Buy.
6 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 22.3% above current price.
F4 · Management deep-dive — recent events, stated priorities, guidance track record
Recent 8-K events
4 material events in the last 24 months — top 4 listed below.
Stated priorities
Insufficient transcript history for this ticker.
Guidance track record
Insufficient guidance history for this ticker.
Position context
— how violent might the path be while I hold it?Why this risk level
Recent vol — 30d annualized 21%; 252d 30%.
Drawdown — Max 1y −23%. Bad day move −2%.
Beta to sector ETF (XLP) — 0.95 over 1y.
Liquidity — score 100/100.
Sub-scores — vol 49/100, drawdown 54/100, beta 95/100, earnings vol —.
via XLP
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive — historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only — describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-05-08.
What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-05-08
Management scorecard
How management runs the business — capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What management is focused on
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
No qualifying priorities for this snapshot. Check back after the next refresh.
How this stock is priced
Two ways to read price: against peers in the same business, and against the company's own history.
Not enough peers to compare yet.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
P/E over the last 5 years
25 monthly pointsHow this compares
A side-by-side read on composite, valuation, and risk versus peers.
| Stock | Composite | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
SJM J.M. Smucker Company (The) | -9.7 | — | moderate |
WMT Walmart | -9.3 | expensive | low |
COST Costco | +3.9 | expensive | moderate |
PG Procter & Gamble | +15 | fair | low |
KO Coca-Cola Company (The) | +14 | full | low |
Risk — how this stock moves
What a normal day looks like, what a bad day looks like, and the worst the last year has thrown at it.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios — if X happens, the score would shift by about Y points. These are not predictions.
- If consumer_staples sector trend rises from +0.05 into 'improving' (>= +0.20)+5.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is raised (currently NEW as of 2026-02-26)+4.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is cut (currently NEW as of 2026-02-26)-8.0 pts
- If labor state reverses from -0.31 (negative) to +0.31 (positive)-6.2 pts
- If consumer_staples sector trend falls from +0.05 into 'weakening' (<= -0.20)-5.0 pts
Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-03-032mo agoItem 5.02
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. The J. M. Smucker Company (the “ Company ”) previously reported on a Current Report on Form 8-K filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission on February 10, 2026, that John Brase, formerly President and Chief Operating Officer, was no longer an executive officer of the Company. In connection with Mr. Brase’s departure from the Company, the Com…
executive changeneutralscore 14 - 2026-02-262mo agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 26, 2026, The J. M. Smucker Company (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing the Company’s financial results for the quarter ended January 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is attached to this Current Report on Form 8-K as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference. The information in this Current Report on Form 8-K, including the exhibit attached hereto, is furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes…
earnings preannouncementneutralscore 13 - 2026-02-262mo agoItem 5.02
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On February 24, 2026, the Board of Directors (the “ Board ”) of The J. M. Smucker Company (the “ Company ”) increased the size of the Board to eleven (11) members and elected Woo-Sung (Bruce) Chung and David Singer to serve on the Board, in each case effective on April 15, 2026. In addition to their service on the Board, Mr. Chung and Mr. Singer wi…
executive changeneutralscore 11 - 2026-02-102mo agoItem 5.02
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. (b) On February 10, 2026, The J. M. Smucker Company (the “ Company ”) issued a press release announcing that John Brase, President and Chief Operating Officer, is no longer an executive officer of the Company, effective as of February 9, 2026. The Company anticipates that it will enter into a separation agreement with Mr. Brase upon his departure a…
executive changeneutralscore 8 - 2025-11-255mo agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On November 25, 2025, The J. M. Smucker Company (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing the Company’s financial results for the quarter ended October 31, 2025. A copy of the press release is attached to this Current Report on Form 8-K as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference. The information in this Current Report on Form 8-K, including the exhibit attached hereto, is furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes…
earnings preannouncementneutralscore 1
Score history
The composite score, snapshot by snapshot. The dotted line at zero separates leaning-positive from leaning-negative.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.