Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Solid Power, Inc. (SLDP)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - PartsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$2.25+10.84%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - PartsSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for SLDP yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Capex stays within $85M to $100M in fiscal 2026 | A primary condition in Solid Power, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is $85M to $100M total capex. | Intact | Capex exceeds $100M in FY26 | Capital expenditures: $6.262M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: $85M to $100M total capex. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 5, 20266,262,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is speculative growth tied to developing electrolyte production and advancing battery partnerships, not an established, profitable business. The long-term thesis is in a watch state: management is progressing on the pilot line, but recent financial performance is weak and company quality has declined.
The snapshot provides no valuation or market-expectations data, so it is not possible to say whether SLDP looks cheap, fair, or expensive versus peers, or what expectations are already reflected. The evidence does show a downward price reaction and performance below its industry cohort, but that does not establish the market’s expectations gap.
Near term, erratic earnings and recent misses leave a meaningful risk of another weak report, especially if guidance is cut. Over the multi-year view, the pilot line is on track, with higher spending as construction and equipment installation progress; partnership execution is mixed, and the company remains loss-making.
The thesis depends on completing equipment acceptance testing and starting plant validation on the stated timeline, while keeping 2026 cash investment within guidance. It also hinges on whether partnerships with SK On, BMW, and Samsung SDI advance toward commercial-scale work, and whether upcoming guidance and sector bellwether results remain supportive.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, SLDP’s case rests on turning pilot-line progress and strategic partnerships into stronger operating evidence, while managing cash use and near-term execution risk. The evidence is mixed, and valuation expectations cannot be assessed from this snapshot. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Recent earnings beats show some progress despite losses. |
| Broken |
| EPS loss worsens beyond -$0.48 in FY27 |
Diluted EPS: $-0.11 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: EPS loss narrows from -$0.43 in FY26 to less negative or break-even. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Nov 4, 2026-0.11 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Maintain strong partnership with U.S. Department of Energy | The company has a strong partnership with the U.S. | Intact | Partnership with DOE ends or weakens materially | Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-0.48 → $-0.45 · observed estimates
$0.01B → $0.01B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $-0.48 | $6,568,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-25 | $-0.48 | $6,568,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-26 | $-0.48 | $6,568,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-27 | $-0.48 | $6,568,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-28 | $-0.48 | $6,568,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-0.48 | $6,568,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-30 | $-0.48 | $6,568,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-31 | $-0.48 | $6,568,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-0.48 | $6,568,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-02 | $-0.48 | $6,568,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-03 | $-0.48 | $6,568,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-0.48 | $6,568,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-0.48 | $6,568,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-0.48 | $6,568,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-0.45 | $6,568,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-0.45 | $6,568,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-0.45 | $6,568,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-0.45 | $6,568,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-0.45 | $6,568,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-0.45 | $6,568,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-0.45 | $6,568,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-0.45 | $6,568,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-0.45 | $6,568,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-0.45 | $6,568,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-0.45 | $6,568,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-0.45 | $6,568,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-0.45 | $6,568,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-0.45 | $6,568,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-0.45 | $6,568,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-0.45 | $6,568,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-0.45 | $6,568,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-0.45 | $6,568,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-0.45 | $6,568,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-0.45 | $6,568,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-0.45 | $6,568,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-0.45 | $6,568,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-0.45 | $6,568,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-0.45 | $6,568,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-0.45 | $6,568,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-0.45 | $6,568,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-0.45 | $6,568,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-0.45 | $6,568,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-0.45 | $6,568,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-0.45 | $6,568,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-0.45 | $6,568,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-0.45 | $6,568,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-0.45 | $6,568,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-0.45 | $6,568,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-0.45 | $6,568,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-0.45 | $6,568,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-0.45 | $6,568,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-0.45 | $6,568,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-0.45 | $6,568,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-0.45 | $6,568,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-0.45 | $6,568,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-0.45 | $6,568,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-0.45 | $6,568,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-0.45 | $6,568,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-0.45 | $6,568,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-0.45 | $6,568,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-0.45 | $6,568,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-0.45 | $6,568,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-0.45 | $6,568,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-0.45 | $6,568,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-0.45 | $6,568,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-0.45 | $6,568,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-0.45 | $6,568,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-0.45 | $6,568,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-0.45 | $6,568,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-0.45 | $6,568,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-0.45 | $6,568,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-0.45 | $6,568,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-0.45 | $6,568,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-0.45 | $6,568,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-0.45 | $6,568,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-0.45 | $6,568,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-0.45 | $6,568,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-0.45 | $6,568,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-0.45 | $6,568,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-0.45 | $6,568,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-0.45 | $6,568,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-0.45 | $6,568,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-0.45 | $6,568,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-0.45 | $6,568,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-0.45 | $6,568,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-0.45 | $6,568,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-0.45 | $6,568,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-0.45 | $6,568,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-0.45 | $6,568,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-0.45 | $6,568,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-0.45 | $6,568,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-0.45 | $6,568,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-0.45 | $6,568,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-0.45 | $6,568,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-0.45 | $6,568,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-0.45 | $6,568,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-0.45 | $6,568,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-0.45 | $6,568,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-0.45 | $6,568,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-0.45 | $6,568,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-0.45 | $6,568,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-0.45 | $6,568,000 | 1 / 1 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 2 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.