Supermicro (SMCI)
NASDAQInformation TechnologyComputer HardwareSnapshot 2026-07-08
$26.25-3.46%
Close 2026-07-07 · 1-day change
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Track SMCI free→Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Industries move in repeating boom-and-bust cycles. This shows where this stock’s industry sits in that cycle, stage by stage (recovery → expansion → supercycle → steady → deceleration → contraction), from its fundamentals (orders, revenue, capital spending), not the stock’s price.
A booming industry is a tailwind for the names in it; a contracting one is a headwind. Companies in the same industry tend to rise and fall together with the cycle, the way a tide lifts and lowers every boat in the harbor at once, so a large part of a stock’s swing can come from where its industry sits rather than from the company itself. It’s context for reading the company’s results, not a buy/sell call. Full explanation →
Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals is in supercycle. Describes the industry's cycle state, not a call on this stock.
The stage band shows the industry’s cycle over the chart’s timeline (each color a stage); a ▼ marks a quarter its growth inflected down — amber is an unconfirmed watch, red is confirmed the next quarter. Use “Overlay cycle on chart” to tint the price chart by stage. The industry’s fundamentals, not a signal on this stock.
Supermicro's growth in AI server demand has to keep compounding to justify the price. Revenue grew 121% year over year, and the last quarter beat expectations. It trades at 12× P/E versus a peer median of 43×, indicating that the price reflects less growth than forecasted. A specific risk is the potential for a guidance cut, which our model puts the next-quarter miss probability at 16%. Peer multiples imply a price about 48% above where it trades; this read is provisional.
Trailing returns as of 2026-07-07. SMCI is total return (includes dividends); the S&P 500 benchmark is price return (the index excludes dividends).
Based on 19 analysts currently covering SMCI (as of Jul 2026).
Analyst ratings and price targets are third-party Wall Street estimates, not QuarterlyIQ’s view. Not investment advice.
A consensus fair price across 9 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $26.25. As of 2026-07-08. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A price-focused, side-by-side fair-value read versus Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals — fair value, gap to price, and forward P/E.
Threatens: Achieve $40 billion revenue in FY 2026
Capital raise may hinder revenue growth objectives.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
End-of-day figures as of 2026-07-07. EPS is implied from price ÷ P/E. Not investment advice.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Below average on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
Threatens: Achieve $40 billion revenue in FY 2026
Funding needs could impact revenue growth trajectory.
Threatens: Achieve $40 billion revenue in FY 2026
Stock decline indicates investor concerns over growth.
Threatens: Achieve $40 billion revenue in FY 2026
Financing may signal cash flow issues affecting growth.
Threatens: Achieve $40 billion revenue in FY 2026
Large capital raise raises concerns about financial health.
Threatens: Achieve $40 billion revenue in FY 2026
Investor reaction suggests doubts about future growth.
Advances: Expand order book with Blackwell Ultra
New platform enhances order book potential.
Advances: Expand order book with Blackwell Ultra
New product launch supports order book expansion.
