SMCI
SupermicroNASDAQInformation TechnologyComputer HardwareSnapshot 2026-05-08
As of May 8, 2026, SMCI has a composite score of 17.6 and a signal label of "mild favorable." The company's momentum score increased significantly by 25.3 points, reaching 30.0, while the valuation label improved from "fair" to "inexpensive." The overall confidence in this scoring is medium, with a high market risk score of 80.0. This analysis is provisional.
Price
Daily closes from AlphaVantage. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Factor signals
Read top-to-bottom: thesis (is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold), watch flags (has something changed worth re-reading), and position context (how violent might the path be). Each pill is a parallel diagnostic — never aggregated into a single score.
Thesis
— is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold?Why this rank
- Direction share1.00
- Slope (norm)0.36
- Bonus0.00
Why this rank
Trailing four: 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2
Why this rank
Watch
— has something changed worth re-reading?Why this setup
EPS estimate $0.56 → $0.71 (+25.8% / 30d). 1 raised, 1 cut, 16 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 26% of analysts rate Buy.
2 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 24.4% above current price.
1 positive, 0 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
Market and fundamentals agree — analysts are positioned bullishly on a fundamentally strong name.
F4 · Management deep-dive — recent events, stated priorities, guidance track record
Recent 8-K events
8 material events in the last 24 months — top 5 listed below.
Stated priorities
3 priorityies extracted from earnings transcripts (as of 2026-05-08).
- 1.Achieve $40 billion revenue in FY 2026growthmixed65% progress
5/5: “For fiscal year 2026, the Company expects net sales in the range of $38.9 billion to $40.4 billion.”
Why this status
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Revenue grew from $5.01B in 2026-Q1 to $12.68B in 2026-Q2, indicating strong progress towards the $40 billion target. Management's guidance aligns with this trajectory, suggesting delivery on this priority.
- 2.Expand order book with Blackwell Ultragrowthwatchprovisional
11/4: “With a rapidly expanding order book, including more than $13B in Blackwell Ultra orders.”
Why this status
Newly stated in 2025-Q4. The order book expansion with Blackwell Ultra is highlighted by management, but no specific financial updates or new contracts were disclosed in the latest quarter, indicating limited substantive delivery so far.
- 3.Maintain positive EPS guidancegrowthmixed65% progress
5/5: “Non-GAAP net income per diluted share of $0.65 to $0.79.”
Why this status
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. EPS increased from $0.26 in 2026-Q1 to $0.6 in 2026-Q2, reflecting management's commitment to maintaining positive EPS guidance. The trajectory is delivering on this priority, aligning with guidance expectations.
Guidance track record
Last 5 quarters of EPS guidance with actuals.
Per-quarter detail
| Period | Guidance | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-31 | $0.29 – $0.31 | $0.31 | inside |
| 2025-06-30 | $0.40 – $0.50 | $0.32 | miss |
| 2025-09-30 | $0.30 – $0.42 | $0.35 | inside |
| 2025-12-31 | $0.46 – $0.54 | $0.69 | beat |
| 2026-03-31 | $0.60 | $0.84 | unclassifiable |
Beat / inside / miss is computed from the guided range when issued; for point-estimate quarters a ±5% tolerance band around the mid is used. surprise_pct_vs_mid is unstable when guided EPS is near zero, so it is not surfaced as a headline.
Position context
— how violent might the path be while I hold it?Why this risk level
Recent vol — 30d annualized 90%; 252d 82%.
Drawdown — Max 1y −66%. Bad day move −7%.
Beta to sector ETF (XLK) — 0.15 over 1y.
Liquidity — score 100/100.
Sub-scores — vol 0/100, drawdown 0/100, beta 15/100, earnings vol —.
High-volatility growth — strong fundamentals + high realized vol. Typical day ±2.9%.
via XLK
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive — historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only — describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-05-08.
What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
- score change · company_momentum_scoreseverity 42
Company momentum rose by 25.3 points (from 4.7 to 30.0).
- label change · valuation_labelseverity 20
Valuation label changed from 'fair' to 'inexpensive'.
As of 2026-05-08, the company momentum score for SMCI rose by 25.3 points, increasing from 4.7 to 30.0. Additionally, the valuation label changed from 'fair' to 'inexpensive'. The overall signal transitioned to 'mild_favorable'.
as of 2026-05-08
Management scorecard
How management runs the business — capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Met or beat guidance 67% of the last 3 guided quarters · 12.8% avg surprise
What management is focused on
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
- #1
Achieve $40 billion revenue in FY 2026
GrowthNew since 2026-05-04Management aims to reach $40 billion in revenue for fiscal year 2026.
On track →MixedStated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Revenue grew from $5.01B in 2026-Q1 to $12.68B in 2026-Q2, indicating strong progress towards the $40 billion target. Management's guidance aligns with this trajectory, suggesting delivery on this priority.
65%CEO/CFO:“For fiscal year 2026, the Company expects net sales in the range of $38.9 billion to $40.4 billion.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-05-05Stated 3 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04Show history (3)
- 2026-Q2Multiple sources
“For fiscal year 2026, the Company expects net sales in the range of $38.9 billion to $40.4 billion.”
- 2026-Q1Multiple sources
“For fiscal year 2026, the Company expects net sales of at least $40.0 billion.”
- 2025-Q4Multiple sources
“With a rapidly expanding order book, including more than $13B in Blackwell Ultra orders, we expect at least $36 billion in revenue for fiscal year 2026.”
- #2
Expand order book with Blackwell Ultra
GrowthNew since 2026-05-04Focus on expanding the order book, particularly with Blackwell Ultra products.
WatchNewly stated in 2025-Q4. The order book expansion with Blackwell Ultra is highlighted by management, but no specific financial updates or new contracts were disclosed in the latest quarter, indicating limited substantive delivery so far.
No scoreCEO/CFO:“With a rapidly expanding order book, including more than $13B in Blackwell Ultra orders.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2025-11-04Stated 1 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04provisionalShow history (1)
- 2025-Q4Multiple sources
“With a rapidly expanding order book, including more than $13B in Blackwell Ultra orders.”
- #3
Maintain positive EPS guidance
GrowthNew since 2026-05-04Ensure EPS guidance remains positive and aligns with market expectations.
On track →MixedStated in 3 of last 3 quarters. EPS increased from $0.26 in 2026-Q1 to $0.6 in 2026-Q2, reflecting management's commitment to maintaining positive EPS guidance. The trajectory is delivering on this priority, aligning with guidance expectations.
65%CEO/CFO:“Non-GAAP net income per diluted share of $0.65 to $0.79.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-05-05Stated 3 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04Show history (3)
- 2026-Q2Multiple sources
“Non-GAAP net income per diluted share of $0.65 to $0.79.”
- 2026-Q1Multiple sources
“GAAP net income per diluted share of at least $0.52 and non-GAAP net income per diluted share of at least $0.60.”
- 2025-Q4Multiple sources
“non-GAAP net income per diluted share of $0.46 to $0.54.”
How this stock is priced
Two ways to read price: against peers in the same business, and against the company's own history.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
P/E over the last 5 years
71 monthly pointsHow this compares
A side-by-side read on composite, valuation, and risk versus peers.
| Stock | Composite | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
SMCI Supermicro | +18 | inexpensive | high |
NVDA NVIDIA Corporation | +20 | full | moderate |
AAPL Apple Inc | +19 | full | moderate |
MSFT Microsoft | +27 | fair | elevated |
AVGO Broadcom | +11 | expensive | elevated |
Risk — how this stock moves
What a normal day looks like, what a bad day looks like, and the worst the last year has thrown at it.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios — if X happens, the score would shift by about Y points. These are not predictions.
- If information_technology sector trend rises from +0.08 into 'improving' (>= +0.20)+5.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is raised (currently NEW as of 2026-05-05)+4.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is cut (currently NEW as of 2026-05-05)-8.0 pts
- If rates state reverses from -0.37 (negative) to +0.37 (positive)-7.3 pts
- If information_technology sector trend falls from +0.08 into 'weakening' (<= -0.20)-5.0 pts
Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-05-053d agoItem 2.02
of this report, including Exhibit 99.1, are being furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), and are not to be incorporated by reference into any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, regardless of any general incorporation language contained in such filing, unless otherwise expressly stated in such filing.
earnings preannouncementpositivescore 68 - 2026-04-2018d agoItem 5.02
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers At the Annual Meeting of Stockholders of Super Micro Computer, Inc. (the “Company”) held on April 15, 2026 (the “Annual Meeting”), the stockholders of the Company, upon recommendation of the Company’s Board of Directors (the “Board”), approved the further amendment and restatement of the Super Micro Computer, Inc. 2020 Equity and Incentive Compensat…
executive changeneutralscore 37 - 2026-03-201mo agoItem 5.02
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensation Arrangements of Certain Officers On March 19, 2026, Super Micro Computer, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release providing a statement regarding the U.S. Attorney’s Office for the Southern District of New York unsealing an indictment of three individuals associated with the Company in connection with an alleged conspiracy to commit export-control violations. The individuals ch…
executive changeneutralscore 18 - 2026-02-033mo agoItem 2.02
of this report, including Exhibit 99.1, are being furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), and are not to be incorporated by reference into any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, regardless of any general incorporation language contained in such filing, unless otherwise expressly stated in such filing.
earnings preannouncementpositivescore 8 - 2026-01-293mo agoItem 1.01
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement Amendment to the Credit Agreement On January 26, 2026, Super Micro Computer, Inc, a Delaware corporation (the “Company”) entered into Amendment #1 (the “Amendment”) to the Credit Agreement (as amended and as it may be restated, supplemented and/or otherwise modified from time to time, the “Credit Agreement”) dated December 29, 2025 by and among the Company as the lead borrower, the additional borrowers from time to time party thereto, the various fin…
capital allocationneutralscore 7
Score history
The composite score, snapshot by snapshot. The dotted line at zero separates leaning-positive from leaning-negative.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.