Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Scholar Rock Holding Corp. (SRRK)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-05
$45.50-1.28%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for SRRK yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Launch apitegromab by September 2026 | Scholar Rock aims to launch apitegromab by September 2026. | Intact | Launch delayed beyond September 2026 | PDUFA date Sept 30, 2026 vs Target Sept 30, 2026 FDA decision expected Sept 30, 2026; JPMorgan raises target on launch outlook; regulatory review progressing. Nov 5, 2026Last status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 10, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earningsObserved price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a speculative, loss-making biotech company with meaningful dependence on one newly approved product. The long-term thesis is in a watch state: management delivered on the approval and launch milestone, but recent financial performance has been below its industry cohort.
The valuation model suggests SRRK is expensive versus peers, with a sizable premium, while its expectations gap is negative and model confidence is low. The priced-in assessment is tagged as justified, with no fragility gates triggered, but the evidence does not specify exactly which launch or growth assumptions the market already expects.
Near term, the FDA approval of ISEMBYLD and the launch underway mark progress on management’s stated priority; cash and marketable securities rose between the first and second quarters, with management expecting runway into 2027. Results have been mixed, including an earnings miss in May and in-line earnings in August, while the company remains loss-making and risk is elevated.
Over the next one to three years, the thesis hinges on launch execution and whether the cash runway can support progress without a setback. A guidance cut would be a meaningful negative, while continued strength from healthcare bellwethers could support sector momentum; weakening jobs data could weigh on cyclical names and healthcare sentiment.
SRRK has cleared a major regulatory milestone, but its multi-year view remains dependent on commercial execution in a loss-making, higher-risk business. Evidence is mixed, and confidence is medium. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| The company plans to extend cash into 2027. |
| Intact |
| Cash runs out before end of 2027 |
Cash and cash equivalents: $437.091M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Cash runway into 2027. Target period ends 2027-12-31; this observation covers 2026-Q2. Date unavailable437,091,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 2 supplied quarters. Management reported: “• As of June 30, 2026, Scholar Rock had cash, cash equivalents, and marketable securities of $492.1 million.” “• As of March 31, 2026, Scholar Rock had cash, cash equivalents, and marketable securities of $479.9 million.” Delivery assessment Nov 5, 2026 |
Resubmit BLA for apitegromab | A supporting condition in Scholar Rock Holding Corp.'s published investment case. The stated target is BLA resubmitted and accepted by FDA. | Intact | BLA not accepted by FDA within 6 months of resubmission | BLA resubmitted 2026-03-31; PDUFA date late Sept 2026 FDA resubmission confirmed in March 2026; PDUFA action date set for late September 2026. Nov 5, 2026Last status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-2.55 → $-2.61 · observed estimates
$0.15B → $0.14B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $-2.55 | $149,468,480 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-07-25 | $-2.55 | $149,468,480 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-07-26 | $-2.55 | $149,468,480 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-07-27 | $-2.55 | $149,468,480 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-07-28 | $-2.55 | $149,468,480 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-2.55 | $149,441,815 | 13 / 12 |
| 2026-07-30 | $-2.55 | $149,441,815 | 13 / 12 |
| 2026-07-31 | $-2.55 | $149,441,815 | 13 / 12 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-2.55 | $149,441,815 | 13 / 12 |
| 2026-08-02 | $-2.55 | $149,468,480 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-08-03 | $-2.55 | $149,441,815 | 13 / 12 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-2.55 | $149,468,480 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-2.55 | $149,441,815 | 13 / 12 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-2.55 | $149,468,480 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-2.58 | $146,122,790 | 16 / 15 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-2.58 | $146,122,790 | 16 / 15 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-2.58 | $146,122,790 | 16 / 15 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-2.55 | $149,441,815 | 13 / 12 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-2.55 | $149,441,815 | 13 / 12 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-2.55 | $149,441,815 | 13 / 12 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-2.55 | $149,441,815 | 13 / 12 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-2.55 | $149,441,815 | 13 / 12 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-2.55 | $149,441,815 | 13 / 12 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-2.55 | $149,441,815 | 13 / 12 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-2.55 | $149,441,815 | 13 / 12 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-2.55 | $147,965,503 | 13 / 12 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-2.55 | $147,965,503 | 13 / 12 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-2.55 | $147,965,503 | 13 / 12 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-2.56 | $146,161,440 | 13 / 12 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-2.56 | $146,161,440 | 13 / 12 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-2.56 | $146,161,440 | 13 / 12 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-2.56 | $146,161,440 | 13 / 12 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-2.56 | $146,161,440 | 13 / 12 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-2.56 | $146,161,440 | 13 / 12 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-2.56 | $146,161,440 | 13 / 12 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-2.56 | $146,161,440 | 13 / 12 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-2.56 | $146,161,440 | 13 / 12 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-2.56 | $146,161,440 | 13 / 12 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-2.56 | $146,161,440 | 13 / 12 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-2.56 | $146,161,440 | 13 / 12 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-2.56 | $146,161,440 | 13 / 12 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-2.56 | $146,161,440 | 13 / 12 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-2.56 | $146,161,440 | 13 / 12 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-2.56 | $146,161,440 | 13 / 12 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-2.56 | $146,161,440 | 13 / 12 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-2.56 | $146,161,440 | 13 / 12 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-2.56 | $146,161,440 | 13 / 12 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-2.56 | $146,161,440 | 13 / 12 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-2.56 | $146,161,440 | 13 / 12 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-2.56 | $146,161,440 | 13 / 12 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-2.56 | $146,161,440 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-2.60 | $149,472,791 | 13 / 12 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-2.61 | $142,066,310 | 13 / 12 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-2.61 | $142,066,310 | 13 / 12 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-2.61 | $142,066,310 | 13 / 12 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-2.61 | $142,066,310 | 13 / 12 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-2.61 | $142,066,310 | 13 / 12 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-2.61 | $142,066,310 | 13 / 12 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-2.61 | $142,066,310 | 13 / 12 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-2.61 | $142,889,839 | 13 / 12 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-2.61 | $142,889,839 | 13 / 12 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-2.61 | $142,948,663 | 13 / 12 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-2.61 | $142,948,645 | 13 / 12 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-2.61 | $142,948,645 | 13 / 12 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-2.61 | $142,948,645 | 13 / 12 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-2.61 | $142,948,645 | 13 / 12 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-2.61 | $142,948,645 | 13 / 12 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-2.61 | $142,948,645 | 13 / 12 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-2.61 | $142,948,645 | 13 / 12 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-2.61 | $142,948,645 | 13 / 12 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-2.61 | $142,948,645 | 13 / 12 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-2.61 | $142,948,645 | 13 / 12 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-2.61 | $142,948,645 | 13 / 12 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-2.61 | $142,948,645 | 13 / 12 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-2.61 | $142,948,645 | 13 / 12 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-2.59 | $142,623,174 | 13 / 12 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-2.59 | $142,623,174 | 13 / 12 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-2.59 | $142,623,174 | 13 / 12 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-2.59 | $142,623,174 | 13 / 12 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-2.58 | $143,681,998 | 13 / 12 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-2.58 | $143,681,998 | 13 / 12 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-2.58 | $143,681,998 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-2.58 | $143,681,998 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-2.58 | $143,681,998 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-2.58 | $143,681,998 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-2.58 | $143,681,998 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-2.58 | $143,681,998 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-2.58 | $143,681,998 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-2.62 | $142,432,233 | 13 / 12 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-2.62 | $142,432,233 | 13 / 12 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-2.61 | $142,432,233 | 13 / 12 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-2.61 | $142,432,233 | 13 / 12 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-2.61 | $142,432,233 | 13 / 12 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-2.61 | $142,432,233 | 13 / 12 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-2.61 | $142,432,233 | 13 / 12 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-2.61 | $142,432,233 | 13 / 12 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-2.61 | $142,432,233 | 13 / 12 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-2.61 | $142,432,233 | 13 / 12 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-2.61 | $142,432,233 | 13 / 12 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-2.61 | $142,432,233 | 13 / 12 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-2.61 | $142,432,233 | 13 / 12 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-2.61 | $142,432,233 | 13 / 12 |
| 2026-11-05 | $-2.61 | $142,432,233 | 13 / 12 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 17 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
1 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.