STLD
Steel DynamicsNASDAQMaterialsSteelSnapshot 2026-05-08
As of May 8, 2026, STLD has a composite score of -2.1, indicating a mixed signal. The score is influenced by a high confidence level of 84.1 and an elevated risk label. Key drivers include macroeconomic factors such as growth, inflation, labor, and rates, with notable unfavorable scenarios related to guidance cuts and sector trends weakening.
Price
Daily closes from AlphaVantage. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Factor signals
Read top-to-bottom: thesis (is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold), watch flags (has something changed worth re-reading), and position context (how violent might the path be). Each pill is a parallel diagnostic — never aggregated into a single score.
Thesis
— is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold?Why this rank
- Direction share1.00
- Slope (norm)-0.25
- Bonus0.00
Why this rank
Trailing four: 2024-Q3, 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3
Why this rank
Watch
— has something changed worth re-reading?Why this setup
EPS estimate $3.62 → $4.00 (+10.6% / 30d). 6 raised, 0 cut, 9 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 6 maintained. 64% of analysts rate Buy.
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 6.0% above current price.
0 positive, 1 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
F4 · Management deep-dive — recent events, stated priorities, guidance track record
Recent 8-K events
5 material events in the last 24 months — top 5 listed below.
Stated priorities
3 priorityies extracted from earnings transcripts (as of 2026-05-08).
- 1.Strengthen domestic steel and aluminum demandgrowthbehind0% progress
4/21: “We remain constructive that market conditions are in place for domestic steel and aluminum consumption to be strong through 2026.”
Why this status
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Despite management's focus on strengthening domestic demand, revenue declined from $4,828M in 2025-Q3 to $3,453M in 2025-Q4. This indicates limited progress in achieving stronger domestic demand.
- 2.Capitalize on favorable market environmentgrowthwatchprovisional
10/21: “We expect a favorable market environment to take shape as unfair trade practices diminish.”
Why this status
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Despite management's expectation of a favorable market, revenue decreased from $4,828M in 2025-Q3 to $3,453M in 2025-Q4, indicating challenges in capitalizing on the market environment.
- 3.Support solid domestic demandgrowthbehind0% progressprovisional
1/27: “We anticipate that improving market conditions will support solid domestic demand for steel and aluminum products.”
Why this status
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Despite management's focus on supporting solid domestic demand, revenue fell from $4,828M in 2025-Q3 to $3,453M in 2025-Q4, showing limited progress in achieving this goal.
Guidance track record
Last 4 quarters of EPS guidance with actuals.
Per-quarter detail
| Period | Guidance | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-06-30 | $2.00 – $2.04 | $2.01 | inside |
| 2025-09-30 | $2.60 – $2.64 | $2.74 | beat |
| 2025-12-31 | $1.65 – $1.69 | $1.83 | beat |
| 2026-03-31 | $2.73 – $2.77 | $2.78 | beat |
Beat / inside / miss is computed from the guided range when issued; for point-estimate quarters a ±5% tolerance band around the mid is used. surprise_pct_vs_mid is unstable when guided EPS is near zero, so it is not surfaced as a headline.
Position context
— how violent might the path be while I hold it?Why this risk level
Recent vol — 30d annualized 35%; 252d 34%.
Drawdown — Max 1y −20%. Bad day move −3%.
Beta to sector ETF (XLB) — 0.09 over 1y.
Liquidity — score 100/100.
Sub-scores — vol 43/100, drawdown 59/100, beta 9/100, earnings vol —.
via XLB
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive — historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only — describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-05-08.
What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-05-08
Management scorecard
How management runs the business — capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Met or beat guidance 75% of the last 4 guided quarters · 3.7% avg surprise
What management is focused on
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
- #1
Strengthen domestic steel and aluminum demand
GrowthNew since 2026-05-04Focus on increasing domestic consumption of steel and aluminum products.
BehindStated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Despite management's focus on strengthening domestic demand, revenue declined from $4,828M in 2025-Q3 to $3,453M in 2025-Q4. This indicates limited progress in achieving stronger domestic demand.
0%CEO/CFO:“We remain constructive that market conditions are in place for domestic steel and aluminum consumption to be strong through 2026.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-04-21Stated 3 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04Show history (3)
- 2026-Q1Multiple sources
“We remain constructive that market conditions are in place for domestic steel and aluminum consumption to be strong through 2026.”
- 2025-Q4Multiple sources
“We anticipate that improving market conditions will support solid domestic demand for steel and aluminum products.”
- 2025-Q3Multiple sources
“We expect a favorable market environment to take shape, driving stronger demand.”
- #2
Capitalize on favorable market environment
GrowthNew since 2026-05-04Leverage the favorable market conditions to enhance growth and profitability.
WatchStated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Despite management's expectation of a favorable market, revenue decreased from $4,828M in 2025-Q3 to $3,453M in 2025-Q4, indicating challenges in capitalizing on the market environment.
No scoreCEO/CFO:“We expect a favorable market environment to take shape as unfair trade practices diminish.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2025-10-21Stated 2 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04provisionalShow history (2)
- 2025-Q4Multiple sources
“We anticipate that improving market conditions will support solid domestic demand for steel and aluminum products.”
- 2025-Q3Multiple sources
“We expect a favorable market environment to take shape as unfair trade practices diminish.”
- #3
Support solid domestic demand
GrowthNew since 2026-05-04Ensure strong domestic demand for steel and aluminum products.
BehindStated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Despite management's focus on supporting solid domestic demand, revenue fell from $4,828M in 2025-Q3 to $3,453M in 2025-Q4, showing limited progress in achieving this goal.
0%CEO/CFO:“We anticipate that improving market conditions will support solid domestic demand for steel and aluminum products.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-01-27Stated 2 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04provisionalShow history (2)
- 2026-Q1Multiple sources
“We remain constructive that market conditions are in place for domestic steel and aluminum consumption to be strong through 2026.”
- 2025-Q4Multiple sources
“We anticipate that improving market conditions will support solid domestic demand for steel and aluminum products.”
How this stock is priced
Two ways to read price: against peers in the same business, and against the company's own history.
Not enough peers to compare yet.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
P/E over the last 5 years
26 monthly pointsHow this compares
A side-by-side read on composite, valuation, and risk versus peers.
| Stock | Composite | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
STLD Steel Dynamics | -2.1 | expensive | elevated |
LIN Linde plc | +24 | inexpensive | moderate |
NEM Newmont | +17 | inexpensive | elevated |
FCX Freeport-McMoRan | +6.4 | — | elevated |
SHW Sherwin-Williams | +18 | inexpensive | moderate |
Risk — how this stock moves
What a normal day looks like, what a bad day looks like, and the worst the last year has thrown at it.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios — if X happens, the score would shift by about Y points. These are not predictions.
- If materials sector trend rises from +0.10 into 'improving' (>= +0.20)+5.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is raised (currently NEW as of 2026-04-21)+4.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is cut (currently NEW as of 2026-04-21)-8.0 pts
- If materials sector trend falls from +0.10 into 'weakening' (<= -0.20)-5.0 pts
- If growth state reverses from +0.25 (positive) to -0.25 (negative)-3.5 pts
Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-04-2117d agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On April 20, 2026, Steel Dynamics, Inc. issued a press release titled “Steel Dynamics Reports First Quarter 2026 Results.” A copy of that press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1. The information contained in Exhibit 99.1 is furnished under this
earnings preannouncementnegativescore 53 - 2026-05-0817h agoItem 8.01
Other Events On May 7, 2026, Steel Dynamics, Inc. issued a press release titled “Steel Dynamics Announces Second Quarter 2026 Cash Dividend.” A copy of that press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and incorporated herein by reference.
capital allocationneutralscore 51 - 2026-03-271mo agoItem 5.02
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On March 25, 2026, each of Richard P. Teets, Jr. and Gabriel L. Shaheen, members of the Board of Directors (the “Board”) of Steel Dynamics, Inc. (the “Company”), informed the Board of his respective intention to retire from the Board at the end of the current term and not stand for reelection at the 2026 Annual Meeting. Effective at the 2026 Annual…
executive changeneutralscore 21 - 2026-02-232mo agoItem 8.01
Other Events On February 20 , 2026, Steel Dynamics, Inc. issued a press release titled “Steel Dynamics Announces First Quarter 2026 Cash Dividend Increase of 6%.” A copy of that press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and incorporated herein by reference.
capital allocationneutralscore 9 - 2025-12-234mo agoItem 1.02
Termination of a Material Definitive Agreement. Effective December 21, 2025, Steel Dynamics, Inc. (the “Company”) redeemed and subsequently repaid all of its outstanding 5.000% Senior Notes due 2026 (the “Notes”) at a price of 100.000% of the principal amount of $400,000,000, together with accrued and unpaid interest to, but not including, December 21, 2025. The Notes were issued in the original principal amount of $400,000,000, pursuant to an Indenture, as amended and supplemented, dated as…
mna activitynegativescore 2
Score history
The composite score, snapshot by snapshot. The dotted line at zero separates leaning-positive from leaning-negative.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.