Steel Dynamics (STLD)
NASDAQMaterialsSteelSnapshot 2026-07-07
$229.62+1.12%
Close 2026-07-07 · 1-day change
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Track STLD free→Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Industries move in repeating boom-and-bust cycles. This shows where this stock’s industry sits in that cycle, stage by stage (recovery → expansion → supercycle → steady → deceleration → contraction), from its fundamentals (orders, revenue, capital spending), not the stock’s price.
A booming industry is a tailwind for the names in it; a contracting one is a headwind. Companies in the same industry tend to rise and fall together with the cycle, the way a tide lifts and lowers every boat in the harbor at once, so a large part of a stock’s swing can come from where its industry sits rather than from the company itself. It’s context for reading the company’s results, not a buy/sell call. Full explanation →
Materials: fringe margins under pressure (4q confirmed)
The stage band shows the industry’s cycle over the chart’s timeline (each color a stage); a ▼ marks a quarter its growth inflected down — amber is an unconfirmed watch, red is confirmed the next quarter. Use “Overlay cycle on chart” to tint the price chart by stage. The industry’s fundamentals, not a signal on this stock.
The reason to own it still holds.
View ThesisRevenue growth is accelerating — up about 10% over the past year.
View GrowthManagement screens strong on capital allocation, earnings delivery, margins, market reaction to earnings.
View ManagementExpectations look reasonable — what the market is pricing in sits in line with or below what analysts forecast.
View ValuationModerate volatility — typically moves about 2% a day.
View RiskHealthy across the board
Steel Dynamics must improve its margin expansion to justify its current price. Recent financial performance has been steady, with revenue growing 19% year over year. It trades at 24× P/E, which is in line with its peer median of 24×. The price reflects less growth than expected, indicating modest expectations. If STLD cuts guidance on the next call, it could negatively impact the stock. Peer multiples imply a price roughly in line with where it trades.
Trailing returns as of 2026-07-07. STLD is total return (includes dividends); the S&P 500 benchmark is price return (the index excludes dividends).
Based on 12 analysts currently covering STLD (as of Jul 2026).
Based on 4 Wall Street analysts offering 12-month price targets for STLD in the last 4 months.
A consensus fair price across 10 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $229.62. As of 2026-07-08. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A price-focused, side-by-side fair-value read versus Steel — fair value, gap to price, and forward P/E.
Threatens: Increase value-added flat rolled steel production capacity
Lower EPS guidance may hinder margin expansion efforts.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
End-of-day figures as of 2026-07-07. EPS is implied from price ÷ P/E. Not investment advice.
Current $229.62
The last 12 months of price, then the range of analyst 12-month targets from today’s $229.62.
Analyst ratings and price targets are third-party Wall Street estimates, not QuarterlyIQ’s view. Not investment advice.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Above average on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
Q2 guidance miss raises concerns about future performance.
AI Capex issues could hinder growth objectives.
Lower Q4 earnings projections may impact growth.
Complete ownership enhances operational control.
Tariff support boosts pricing outlook positively.
Strong Q2 earnings indicate solid demand.