Seagate Technology (STX)
NASDAQInformation TechnologyComputer HardwareSnapshot 2026-07-07
$827.64-4.68%
Close 2026-07-07 · 1-day change
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Industries move in repeating boom-and-bust cycles. This shows where this stock’s industry sits in that cycle, stage by stage (recovery → expansion → supercycle → steady → deceleration → contraction), from its fundamentals (orders, revenue, capital spending), not the stock’s price.
A booming industry is a tailwind for the names in it; a contracting one is a headwind. Companies in the same industry tend to rise and fall together with the cycle, the way a tide lifts and lowers every boat in the harbor at once, so a large part of a stock’s swing can come from where its industry sits rather than from the company itself. It’s context for reading the company’s results, not a buy/sell call. Full explanation →
Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals is in supercycle. Describes the industry's cycle state, not a call on this stock.
The stage band shows the industry’s cycle over the chart’s timeline (each color a stage); a ▼ marks a quarter its growth inflected down — amber is an unconfirmed watch, red is confirmed the next quarter. Use “Overlay cycle on chart” to tint the price chart by stage. The industry’s fundamentals, not a signal on this stock.
The reason to own it still holds.
View ThesisRevenue is growing steadily — about 29% over the past year.
View GrowthManagement screens strong on capital allocation, earnings delivery, market reaction to earnings.
View ManagementExpectations look reasonable — what the market is pricing in sits in line with or below what analysts forecast.
View ValuationThis stock is volatile — it swings about 3% on a typical day and fell roughly 25% in its worst 12-month stretch.
View RiskSeagate Technology (STX) aims to grow through AI-driven storage demand. Recent earnings showed revenue growth of 44% year over year, with a positive earnings surprise of 16.8%. It trades at 70× P/E, above the peer median of 43×. Expectations seem modest compared to our view. A significant risk is the potential for guidance cuts, with a 14% chance of missing estimates. Peer multiples imply a price about 44% below where it trades. This read is provisional.
Trailing returns as of 2026-07-07. STX is total return (includes dividends); the S&P 500 benchmark is price return (the index excludes dividends).
Based on 25 analysts currently covering STX (as of Jul 2026).
Based on 11 Wall Street analysts offering 12-month price targets for STX in the last 4 months.
A consensus fair price across 9 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $827.64. As of 2026-07-08. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A price-focused, side-by-side fair-value read versus Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals — fair value, gap to price, and forward P/E.
Threatens: Drive profitable growth through AI-driven storage demand
Oversupply fears could hinder AI-driven storage growth.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
End-of-day figures as of 2026-07-07. EPS is implied from price ÷ P/E. Not investment advice.
Current $827.64
The last 12 months of price, then the range of analyst 12-month targets from today’s $827.64.
Analyst ratings and price targets are third-party Wall Street estimates, not QuarterlyIQ’s view. Not investment advice.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Bottom 25% on quality vs scored peers
A second lens on the 12-month fair value: for companies that score high on measured quality (profitability, balance-sheet safety, earnings stability), this read trusts more of today's profit margins instead of averaging them toward their multi-year history the way the headline number does. Shown alongside the fair value above, not in place of it. A diagnostic, not a price target or a buy/sell signal.
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
Threatens: Drive profitable growth through AI-driven storage demand
AI-driven storage demand fears could hinder growth.
Advances: Enhance product strategy with areal density-driven innovation
Mass capacity HDD aligns with product innovation goals.
Advances: Drive profitable growth through AI-driven storage demand
AI-driven growth aligns with management's growth objective.
Advances: Maintain strong cash flow and shareholder returns
Redemption of notes indicates strong cash flow management.
Threatens: Maintain strong cash flow and shareholder returns
Downgrade may impact shareholder returns.
Advances: Drive profitable growth through AI-driven storage demand
Significant sales growth supports AI-driven storage demand objective.
Advances: Drive profitable growth through AI-driven storage demand
AI-driven pricing power supports profitable growth objective.