STX
Seagate TechnologyNASDAQInformation TechnologyComputer HardwareSnapshot 2026-05-08
As of May 8, 2026, STX has a composite score of 16.6, categorized as "mild favorable." This score is influenced by a medium confidence level of 79.1 and elevated market risk at 65.7. Key drivers include macroeconomic factors such as rates, growth, inflation, and labor, with recent guidance changes impacting the outlook. The analysis is provisional.
Price
Daily closes from AlphaVantage. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Factor signals
Read top-to-bottom: thesis (is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold), watch flags (has something changed worth re-reading), and position context (how violent might the path be). Each pill is a parallel diagnostic — never aggregated into a single score.
Thesis
— is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold?Why this rank
- Direction share1.00
- Slope (norm)0.25
- Bonus0.00
Why this rank
Trailing four: 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2, 2026-Q3
Why this rank
Watch
— has something changed worth re-reading?Why this setup
EPS estimate $3.85 → $5.06 (+31.2% / 30d). 16 raised, 0 cut, 19 covering analysts.
1 upgrade, 0 downgrades / 30d, 15 maintained. 83% of analysts rate Buy.
10 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 22.6% above current price.
1 positive, 0 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
Market and fundamentals agree — analysts are positioned bullishly on a fundamentally strong name.
F4 · Management deep-dive — recent events, stated priorities, guidance track record
Recent 8-K events
11 material events in the last 24 months — top 5 listed below.
Stated priorities
3 priorityies extracted from earnings transcripts (as of 2026-05-08).
- 1.Drive profitable growth through AI-driven storage demandgrowthmixed65% progress
4/28: “CEO: 'Seagate is entering a new era of structural growth as AI applications amplify data creation.'”
Why this status
Newly stated in 2026-Q3. Revenue grew from $2.16B in 2025-Q3 to $3.11B in 2026-Q3, indicating a strong growth trajectory. The focus on AI-driven storage demand is delivering results, as evidenced by the significant revenue increase.
- 2.Maintain strong cash flow and shareholder returnscapital allocationmixed69% progress
4/28: “Seagate generated $1.1 billion in cash flow from operations and returned $191 million to shareholders.”
Why this status
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Cash flow from operations increased from $532M in 2026-Q1 to $1.1B in 2026-Q3, and $191M was returned to shareholders in 2026-Q3. The trajectory shows consistent delivery on cash flow generation and shareholder returns.
- 3.Enhance product strategy with areal density-driven innovationproductmixed33% progress
4/28: “CEO: 'Our areal density-driven product strategy enables us to deliver higher-capacity storage at scale.'”
Why this status
Newly stated in 2026-Q3. While the focus on areal density-driven innovation is clear, there is limited substantive delivery evidence this quarter beyond strategic positioning. The financials do not yet reflect specific product milestones.
Guidance track record
Insufficient guidance history for this ticker.
Position context
— how violent might the path be while I hold it?Why this risk level
Recent vol — 30d annualized 56%; 252d 61%.
Drawdown — Max 1y −21%. Bad day move −6%.
Beta to sector ETF (XLK) — 0.07 over 1y.
Liquidity — score 100/100.
Sub-scores — vol 0/100, drawdown 58/100, beta 7/100, earnings vol —.
via XLK
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive — historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only — describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-05-08.
What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-05-08
Management scorecard
How management runs the business — capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What management is focused on
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
- #1
Drive profitable growth through AI-driven storage demand
GrowthSeagate aims to capitalize on AI applications to drive profitable growth and long-term value creation.
MixedNewly stated in 2026-Q3. Revenue grew from $2.16B in 2025-Q3 to $3.11B in 2026-Q3, indicating a strong growth trajectory. The focus on AI-driven storage demand is delivering results, as evidenced by the significant revenue increase.
Revenue grew from $2.16B in 2025-Q3 to $3.11B in 2026-Q365%CEO/CFO:“CEO: 'Seagate is entering a new era of structural growth as AI applications amplify data creation.'”Earnings callSource dated 2026-04-28Stated 1 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-04-28Show history (1)
- 2026-Q3Earnings call
“CEO: 'Seagate is entering a new era of structural growth as AI applications amplify data creation.'”
- #2
Maintain strong cash flow and shareholder returns
Capital allocationSeagate is committed to generating strong cash flow and returning capital to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases.
MixedStated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Cash flow from operations increased from $532M in 2026-Q1 to $1.1B in 2026-Q3, and $191M was returned to shareholders in 2026-Q3. The trajectory shows consistent delivery on cash flow generation and shareholder returns.
69%CEO/CFO:“Seagate generated $1.1 billion in cash flow from operations and returned $191 million to shareholders.”Earnings callSource dated 2026-04-28Stated 3 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-04-28Show history (3)
- 2026-Q3Earnings call
“Seagate generated $1.1 billion in cash flow from operations and returned $191 million to shareholders.”
- 2026-Q2Earnings call
“Cash flow from operations was $723 million, with continued shareholder returns.”
- 2026-Q1Earnings call
“Generated $532 million in cash flow from operations, maintaining shareholder returns.”
- #3
Enhance product strategy with areal density-driven innovation
ProductSeagate focuses on areal density-driven product strategy to deliver higher-capacity, energy-efficient storage solutions.
MixedNewly stated in 2026-Q3. While the focus on areal density-driven innovation is clear, there is limited substantive delivery evidence this quarter beyond strategic positioning. The financials do not yet reflect specific product milestones.
33%CEO/CFO:“CEO: 'Our areal density-driven product strategy enables us to deliver higher-capacity storage at scale.'”Earnings callSource dated 2026-04-28Stated 1 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-04-28Show history (1)
- 2026-Q3Earnings call
“CEO: 'Our areal density-driven product strategy enables us to deliver higher-capacity storage at scale.'”
How this stock is priced
Two ways to read price: against peers in the same business, and against the company's own history.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
P/E over the last 5 years
55 monthly pointsHow this compares
A side-by-side read on composite, valuation, and risk versus peers.
| Stock | Composite | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
STX Seagate Technology | +17 | expensive | elevated |
NVDA NVIDIA Corporation | +20 | full | moderate |
AAPL Apple Inc | +19 | full | moderate |
MSFT Microsoft | +27 | fair | elevated |
AVGO Broadcom | +11 | expensive | elevated |
Risk — how this stock moves
What a normal day looks like, what a bad day looks like, and the worst the last year has thrown at it.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios — if X happens, the score would shift by about Y points. These are not predictions.
- If information_technology sector trend rises from +0.08 into 'improving' (>= +0.20)+5.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is raised (currently NEW as of 2026-04-28)+4.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is cut (currently NEW as of 2026-04-28)-8.0 pts
- If rates state reverses from -0.37 (negative) to +0.37 (positive)-7.3 pts
- If information_technology sector trend falls from +0.08 into 'weakening' (<= -0.20)-5.0 pts
Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-04-2810d agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 28, 2026 , Seagate Technology Holdings plc (the “Company” or “Seagate”) issued a press release reporting its financial results for the fiscal third quarter ended April 3, 2026. The press release is attached to this Current Report on Form 8-K as Exhibit 99.1. The information in this
earnings preannouncementpositivescore 57 - 2026-05-062d agoItem 5.02
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On May 5, 2026, Mr. Michael R. Cannon notified the Board of Directors (the “Board”) of Seagate Technology Holdings, plc (the “Company”) that he has decided not to stand for re-election to the Board at the Company’s 2026 Annual General Meeting of Shareholders (the “Annual Meeting”). Mr. Cannon will continue to serve as a director until the conclusio…
executive changeneutralscore 53 - 2026-04-2810d agoItem 7.01
Regulation FD Disclosure. On April 28, 2026 , the Board of Directors of the Company declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.74 per share, which will be payable on July 7, 2026 to shareholders of record as of the close of business on June 24, 2026. Seagate has issued a Supplemental Financial Information document. The Supplemental Financial Information is available on Seagate’s Investor Relations website at investors.seagate.com. Seagate management will hold a public webcast on April 28, 2026…
capital allocationneutralscore 41 - 2026-02-192mo agoItem 3.02
by reference. The Exchanges (as defined below) were conducted as private placements, and the aggregate of 5,952,309 ordinary shares issued in the Exchanges were issued pursuant to the exemption from the registration requirements of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the “Securities Act”), afforded by Section 4(a)(2) of the Securities Act in transactions not involving any public offering.
capital allocationnegativescore 9 - 2026-02-192mo agoItem 8.01
Other Events. On February 19, 2026, the Company issued a press release announcing the closing of a transaction the Company previously disclosed in a Current Report on the Form 8-K filed on February 12, 2026, whereby the Company and its subsidiary, Seagate HDD Cayman (“Seagate HDD”) entered into separate, privately negotiated exchange agreements (the “Exchange Agreements”) with a limited number of holders of Seagate HDD’s 3.50% Exchangeable Senior Notes due 2028 (the “Notes”) to exchange (coll…
capital allocationneutralscore 9
Score history
The composite score, snapshot by snapshot. The dotted line at zero separates leaning-positive from leaning-negative.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.