STZ
Constellation BrandsNYSEConsumer StaplesBeverages - BrewersSnapshot 2026-05-08
As of May 8, 2026, STZ has a composite score of 2.7 and a signal label of "mixed." The score reflects medium confidence at 69.8, with strengths in macro factors (15.5) and weaknesses in momentum (-8.5) and market risk (37.4). The analysis is provisional, indicating that the scores and assessments may change as new information becomes available.
Price
Daily closes from AlphaVantage. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Factor signals
Read top-to-bottom: thesis (is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold), watch flags (has something changed worth re-reading), and position context (how violent might the path be). Each pill is a parallel diagnostic — never aggregated into a single score.
Thesis
— is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold?Why this rank
- Direction share1.00
- Slope (norm)-0.47
- Bonus0.00
Why this rank
Watch
— has something changed worth re-reading?Buyback / dividend activity on weakening fundamentals — historically a value-trap pattern (48% T+1y positive return vs 69% baseline in IT 2024-26).
Why this setup
EPS estimate $3.35 → $3.28 (-2.2% / 30d). 4 raised, 10 cut, 18 covering analysts.
1 upgrade, 0 downgrades / 30d, 10 maintained. 57% of analysts rate Buy.
7 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 3.4% above current price.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
F4 · Management deep-dive — recent events, stated priorities, guidance track record
Recent 8-K events
7 material events in the last 24 months — top 5 listed below.
Stated priorities
3 priorityies extracted from earnings transcripts (as of 2026-05-08).
- 1.Disciplined capital allocation approachcapital allocationmixed35% progress
4/8: “We remain committed to our disciplined and balanced capital allocation approach.”
Why this status
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. The company issued $500 million in debt in 2026-Q2, indicating active capital management. However, revenue declined from $2.48 billion in 2026-Q2 to $2.22 billion in 2026-Q3, suggesting limited progress in strengthening the business through capital allocation.
- 2.Free cash flow target of $1.6 - $1.7 billioncapital allocationmixed35% progress
4/8: “Free cash flow target of $1.6 - $1.7 billion.”
Why this status
Newly stated in 2026-Q3. The company has set a free cash flow target of $1.6 to $1.7 billion for fiscal 2027. Cash from operating activities was $2.11 billion in 2026-Q3, indicating a strong cash generation capability, aligning with the free cash flow target.
- 3.Operating cash flow target of $2.5 - $2.6 billioncapital allocationmixed35% progressprovisional
1/7: “Operating cash flow target of $2.5 - $2.6 billion.”
Why this status
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. The company has maintained an operating cash flow target of $2.5 to $2.6 billion. Cash from operating activities was $2.11 billion in 2026-Q3, showing progress towards the target, though not yet fully achieved.
Guidance track record
Insufficient guidance history for this ticker.
Position context
— how violent might the path be while I hold it?Why this risk level
Recent vol — 30d annualized 36%; 252d 30%.
Drawdown — Max 1y −34%. Bad day move −3%.
Beta to sector ETF (XLP) — 0.90 over 1y.
Liquidity — score 100/100.
Sub-scores — vol 50/100, drawdown 32/100, beta 90/100, earnings vol —.
via XLP
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive — historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only — describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-05-08.
What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-05-08
Management scorecard
How management runs the business — capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What management is focused on
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
- #1
Disciplined capital allocation approach
Capital allocationMaintain a disciplined and balanced capital allocation approach to strengthen the business and deliver returns.
MixedStated in 3 of last 3 quarters. The company issued $500 million in debt in 2026-Q2, indicating active capital management. However, revenue declined from $2.48 billion in 2026-Q2 to $2.22 billion in 2026-Q3, suggesting limited progress in strengthening the business through capital allocation.
35%CEO/CFO:“We remain committed to our disciplined and balanced capital allocation approach.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-04-08Stated 3 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-04-08Show history (3)
- 2026-Q3Multiple sources
“We remain committed to our disciplined and balanced capital allocation approach.”
- 2026-Q2Multiple sources
“Affirms recently updated comparable EPS outlook.”
- 2026-Q1Multiple sources
“Updates fiscal 2026 reported EPS outlook.”
- #2
Free cash flow target of $1.6 - $1.7 billion
Capital allocationAchieve a free cash flow target of $1.6 to $1.7 billion for fiscal year ending 2027.
MixedNewly stated in 2026-Q3. The company has set a free cash flow target of $1.6 to $1.7 billion for fiscal 2027. Cash from operating activities was $2.11 billion in 2026-Q3, indicating a strong cash generation capability, aligning with the free cash flow target.
35%CEO/CFO:“Free cash flow target of $1.6 - $1.7 billion.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-04-08Stated 1 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-04-08Show history (1)
- 2026-Q3Multiple sources
“Free cash flow target of $1.6 - $1.7 billion.”
- #3
Operating cash flow target of $2.5 - $2.6 billion
Capital allocationMaintain an operating cash flow target of $2.5 to $2.6 billion for fiscal year ending 2026.
MixedStated in 2 of last 2 quarters. The company has maintained an operating cash flow target of $2.5 to $2.6 billion. Cash from operating activities was $2.11 billion in 2026-Q3, showing progress towards the target, though not yet fully achieved.
35%CEO/CFO:“Operating cash flow target of $2.5 - $2.6 billion.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-01-07Stated 2 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-01-07provisionalShow history (2)
- 2026-Q2Multiple sources
“Operating cash flow target of $2.5 - $2.6 billion.”
- 2026-Q1Multiple sources
“Operating cash flow target of $2.5 - $2.6 billion.”
How this stock is priced
Two ways to read price: against peers in the same business, and against the company's own history.
Not enough peers to compare yet.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
P/E over the last 5 years
0 monthly pointsHow this compares
A side-by-side read on composite, valuation, and risk versus peers.
| Stock | Composite | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
STZ Constellation Brands | +2.7 | — | moderate |
WMT Walmart | -9.3 | expensive | low |
COST Costco | +3.9 | expensive | moderate |
PG Procter & Gamble | +15 | fair | low |
KO Coca-Cola Company (The) | +14 | full | low |
Risk — how this stock moves
What a normal day looks like, what a bad day looks like, and the worst the last year has thrown at it.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios — if X happens, the score would shift by about Y points. These are not predictions.
- If consumer_staples sector trend rises from +0.05 into 'improving' (>= +0.20)+5.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is raised (currently NEW as of 2026-04-08)+4.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is cut (currently NEW as of 2026-04-08)-8.0 pts
- If labor state reverses from -0.31 (negative) to +0.31 (positive)-6.2 pts
- If consumer_staples sector trend falls from +0.05 into 'weakening' (<= -0.20)-5.0 pts
Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-05-062d agoItem 8.01
Other Events. On May 6, 2026, the Company and Manufacturers and Traders Trust Company, as trustee (the “Trustee”), entered into Supplemental Indenture No. 37 (the “Supplemental Indenture”), dated as of May 6, 2026, which supplemented the Indenture, dated as of April 17, 2012 (the “Base Indenture” and together with the Supplemental Indenture and the other prior supplemental indentures thereto, the “Indenture”). Under the Indenture, the Company issued $500.0 million aggregate principal amount o…
capital allocationneutralscore 49 - 2026-05-053d agoItem 8.01
Other Events. On May 4, 2026, Constellation Brands, Inc. (the “Company”) entered into an underwriting agreement (the “Underwriting Agreement”) with BofA Securities, Inc., Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC, PNC Capital Markets LLC, and Truist Securities, Inc., for themselves and as representatives of the underwriters named therein (the “Underwriters”), for the sale by the Company of $500.0 million aggregate principal amount of 4.850% Senior Notes due 2031 for a public offering price of 99.943% of the pr…
capital allocationneutralscore 48 - 2026-04-081mo agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 8, 2026, Constellation Brands, Inc. (“Constellation” or the “Company”), a Delaware corporation, issued a news release (the “release”) announcing its financial condition and results of operations as of and for the fiscal year and fourth fiscal quarter ended February 28, 2026. A copy of the release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and incorporated herein by reference. The projections constituting the guidance included in the release invo…
earnings preannouncementneutralscore 33 - 2026-04-081mo agoItem 8.01
Other Events. On April 8, 2026, the Company’s Board of Directors declared a quarterly cash dividend in the amount of $1.03 per issued and outstanding share of the Company’s Class A Common Stock and $0.93 per issued and outstanding share of the Company’s Class 1 Convertible Common Stock, in each case payable on May 14, 2026, to stockholders of record of each respective class as of the close of business on April 29, 2026.
capital allocationneutralscore 26 - 2026-02-122mo agoItem 5.02
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. President and Chief Executive Officer Transition On February 10, 2026, the Board of Directors (the “Board”) of Constellation Brands, Inc. (“Constellation” or the “Company”) appointed Nicholas I. Fink to serve as the Company’s President and Chief Executive Officer (“CEO”), effective April 13, 2026 (the “Effective Date”). Following the Effective Date…
executive changeneutralscore 11
Score history
The composite score, snapshot by snapshot. The dotted line at zero separates leaning-positive from leaning-negative.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.