SWK
Stanley Black & DeckerNYSEIndustrialsTools & AccessoriesSnapshot 2026-05-08
As of May 8, 2026, SWK has a composite score of 19.8 and a signal label of "mild favorable." This score is influenced by a medium confidence level of 75.6 and elevated risk, with notable strengths in valuation at 84.0, indicating it is considered inexpensive. The analysis is provisional, reflecting potential changes based on various scenarios, including guidance cuts and sector trends.
Price
Daily closes from AlphaVantage. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Factor signals
Read top-to-bottom: thesis (is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold), watch flags (has something changed worth re-reading), and position context (how violent might the path be). Each pill is a parallel diagnostic — never aggregated into a single score.
Thesis
— is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold?Why this rank
- Direction share1.00
- Slope (norm)0.07
- Bonus0.00
Why this rank
Trailing four: 2024-Q3, 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3
Why this rank
Joint read: strong + robust historically delivered 80%+ NI-grew rate over T+1y in IT 2024–26 (small N).
Watch
— has something changed worth re-reading?Why this setup
EPS estimate $1.27 → $1.19 (-6.0% / 30d). 2 raised, 9 cut, 12 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 3 maintained. 33% of analysts rate Buy.
2 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 9.9% above current price.
1 positive, 0 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
F4 · Management deep-dive — recent events, stated priorities, guidance track record
Recent 8-K events
5 material events in the last 24 months — top 5 listed below.
Stated priorities
2 priorityies extracted from earnings transcripts (as of 2026-05-08).
- 1.Increase free cash flowcapital allocationmixed44% progress
4/29: “The Company is targeting free cash flow* to be in the range of $500 to $700 million.”
Why this status
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Free cash flow guidance was reduced from $700-$900M in 2025-Q4 to $500-$700M in 2026-Q1, indicating limited progress in enhancing cash flow. The trajectory shows a downward revision in expectations.
- 2.Improve EPSgrowthmixed65% progress
4/29: “The Company continues to expect adjusted EPS* in the range of $4.90 to $5.70.”
Why this status
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. EPS guidance increased from $3.15-$4.35 in 2025-Q4 to $4.90-$5.70 in 2026-Q1, showing progress in improving earnings. The trajectory is on track with management's expectations.
Guidance track record
Insufficient guidance history for this ticker.
Position context
— how violent might the path be while I hold it?Why this risk level
Recent vol — 30d annualized 50%; 252d 40%.
Drawdown — Max 1y −26%. Bad day move −3%.
Beta to sector ETF (XLI) — 1.76 over 1y.
Liquidity — score 100/100.
Sub-scores — vol 33/100, drawdown 48/100, beta 24/100, earnings vol —.
via XLI
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive — historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only — describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-05-08.
What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-05-08
Management scorecard
How management runs the business — capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What management is focused on
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
- #1
Increase free cash flow
Capital allocationNew since 2026-05-04Focus on enhancing free cash flow to improve financial flexibility.
MixedStated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Free cash flow guidance was reduced from $700-$900M in 2025-Q4 to $500-$700M in 2026-Q1, indicating limited progress in enhancing cash flow. The trajectory shows a downward revision in expectations.
44%CEO/CFO:“The Company is targeting free cash flow* to be in the range of $500 to $700 million.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-04-29Stated 3 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04Show history (3)
- 2026-Q1Multiple sources
“Free cash flow* is expected to be in the range of $500 to $700 million.”
- 2025-Q4Multiple sources
“The Company is targeting free cash flow* to be in the range of $700 to $900 million.”
- 2025-Q3Multiple sources
“The Company is targeting free cash flow* to approximate $600 million.”
- #2
Improve EPS
GrowthNew since 2026-05-04Aim to enhance earnings per share through operational improvements.
On track →MixedStated in 3 of last 3 quarters. EPS guidance increased from $3.15-$4.35 in 2025-Q4 to $4.90-$5.70 in 2026-Q1, showing progress in improving earnings. The trajectory is on track with management's expectations.
65%CEO/CFO:“The Company continues to expect adjusted EPS* in the range of $4.90 to $5.70.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-04-29Stated 3 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04Show history (3)
- 2026-Q1Multiple sources
“The Company continues to expect adjusted EPS* in the range of $4.90 to $5.70.”
- 2025-Q4Multiple sources
“the Company expects 2026 EPS to be in the range of $3.15 to $4.35 on a GAAP basis”
- 2025-Q3Multiple sources
“The 2025 EPS for management’s base planning scenario is revised to $2.55 to $2.70 on a GAAP basis”
How this stock is priced
Two ways to read price: against peers in the same business, and against the company's own history.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
P/E over the last 5 years
55 monthly pointsHow this compares
A side-by-side read on composite, valuation, and risk versus peers.
| Stock | Composite | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
SWK Stanley Black & Decker | +20 | inexpensive | elevated |
CAT Caterpillar Inc. | +13 | expensive | moderate |
GE GE Aerospace | +11 | expensive | moderate |
GEV GE Vernova | +10 | full | moderate |
RTX RTX Corporation | +20 | fair | moderate |
Risk — how this stock moves
What a normal day looks like, what a bad day looks like, and the worst the last year has thrown at it.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios — if X happens, the score would shift by about Y points. These are not predictions.
- If industrials sector trend rises from +0.05 into 'improving' (>= +0.20)+5.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is raised (currently REAFFIRMED as of 2026-04-29)+4.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is cut (currently REAFFIRMED as of 2026-04-29)-8.0 pts
- If industrials sector trend falls from +0.05 into 'weakening' (<= -0.20)-5.0 pts
- If growth state reverses from +0.25 (positive) to -0.25 (negative)-4.0 pts
Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-04-299d agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On April 29, 2026, Stanley Black & Decker, Inc. issued a press release announcing first quarter 2026 results.
earnings preannouncementpositivescore 58 - 2026-04-2711d agoItem 5.02
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On April 24, 2026, Stanley Black & Decker, Inc. (the “Company”) held its 2026 Annual Meeting of Shareholders (the “2026 Annual Meeting”). The shareholders approved the adoption of the Stanley Black & Decker Amended and Restated 2024 Omnibus Award Plan (the “Amended and Restated 2024 Plan”), which was approved by the Board of Directors of the Compan…
executive changeneutralscore 44 - 2026-02-043mo agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On February 4, 2026, Stanley Black & Decker, Inc. issued a press release announcing fourth quarter and full year 2025 results.
earnings preannouncementpositivescore 8 - 2026-01-263mo agoItem 5.02
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On January 23, 2026, Andrea Ayers informed the board of directors (the “Board”) of Stanley Black & Decker, Inc. (the “Company”) of her decision to retire from the Board and not to stand for re-election as a director of the Company at the Company’s 2026 annual meeting of shareholders (the “2026 Annual Meeting”). Ms. Ayers will continue to serve on t…
executive changeneutralscore 5 - 2025-10-176mo agoItem 5.02
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On October 14, 2025, Janet M. Link, Senior Vice President, General Counsel and Secretary of Stanley Black & Decker, Inc. (the “Company”) informed the Company of her decision to step down from her role, effective November 30, 2025, to pursue a professional opportunity outside the Company. SIGNATURES Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities Exc…
executive changeneutralscore 1
Score history
The composite score, snapshot by snapshot. The dotted line at zero separates leaning-positive from leaning-negative.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.