Swarmer, Inc. (SWMR)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-11-04
$7.73-16.16%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · SWMR
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 322.0% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | Not available |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
A comparable growth gap is not available.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Elevated risk of a next-quarter earnings miss: this name has been missing across recent quarters and is a smaller-cap name (higher miss base rate). A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 21 industry peers
SWMR — capital allocation — The shares of common stock issuable pursuant to the Purchase Agreement will n…
Dated 2026-09-10
The shares of common stock issuable pursuant to the Purchase Agreement will not be registered under the Securities Act and will be issued in reliance on the exemption from registration requirements thereof provided by Section 4(a)(2) of the Securities Act, Regulation D promulgated thereunder and/or Regulation S promulgated thereunder. Under the Purchase Agreement, each Seller has represented that such seller is either an “accredited investor” as defined in Rule 501(a) under Regulation D or a…
Why it matters: The deal can reach $224 million if all earnout goals are met. Its final cost and stock issuance matter to current owners.
Watch forSwarmer reports the final deal terms, including the cash paid, stock issued, and any earnout due.
Also watch forSwarmer reports a larger cash or stock cost than stated, or says earnout goals were not met and the deal value is lower.
Why it matters: Swarmer’s operating loss and net loss grew year over year in Q2. Lower losses would show progress on its stated priority.
Supportive ifIn the November 10 report, operating loss and net loss are both smaller than their Q2 2026 levels of $7.28 million and $7.33 million.
Worry ifThe November 10 report shows operating loss or net loss above its Q2 2026 level.
Why it matters: Revenue rose from $20.3 million in Q1 to $216.4 million in Q2. The next report can show if growth continues.
Watch forThe November 10 report shows revenue above $216.4 million, the Q2 2026 level.
Also watch forThe November 10 report shows revenue below $20.3 million, the Q1 2026 level.
Why it matters: Closing would add Ratel’s ground vehicles to Swarmer’s autonomy business. The deal still needs approvals and other closing steps.
Supportive ifSwarmer reports that the acquisition has closed and Ratel’s team has joined the company.
Worry ifSwarmer reports that the deal was ended, or that required approvals were not obtained.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$469 on $10,000 · ±4.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $1,394 loss on $10,000 · 13.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $9,016 loss on $10,000 · 90.2% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.