TAP
Molson Coors Beverage CompanyNYSEConsumer StaplesBeverages - BrewersSnapshot 2026-05-08
As of May 8, 2026, TAP has a composite score of 1.4 and a signal label of "mixed." The score reflects medium confidence at 73.1 and indicates moderate risk. Key drivers include macroeconomic factors such as labor, inflation, rates, and growth, with notable influences from potential guidance changes and sector trends. The valuation score is 81.2, categorized as "inexpensive." This analysis is provisional.
Price
Daily closes from AlphaVantage. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Factor signals
Read top-to-bottom: thesis (is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold), watch flags (has something changed worth re-reading), and position context (how violent might the path be). Each pill is a parallel diagnostic — never aggregated into a single score.
Thesis
— is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold?Why this rank
- Direction share0.20
- Slope (norm)0.37
- Bonus0.00
Why this rank
Trailing four: 2017-Q3, 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3
Why this rank
Watch
— has something changed worth re-reading?Buyback / dividend activity on weakening fundamentals — historically a value-trap pattern (48% T+1y positive return vs 69% baseline in IT 2024-26).
Why this setup
EPS estimate $1.79 → $1.55 (-13.5% / 30d). 0 raised, 12 cut, 16 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 4 maintained. 29% of analysts rate Buy.
4 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 0.8% above current price.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
F4 · Management deep-dive — recent events, stated priorities, guidance track record
Recent 8-K events
4 material events in the last 24 months — top 4 listed below.
Stated priorities
3 priorityies extracted from earnings transcripts (as of 2026-05-08).
- 1.Maintain revenue stabilitygrowthmixed42% progress
2/18: “We expect to achieve the following targets for full year 2026 despite uncertainties.”
Why this status
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Revenue was $3.46B in 2025-Q4, showing a slight decline from $3.48B in 2025-Q3. The company aims to maintain revenue stability despite economic challenges, but the trajectory shows limited progress.
- 2.Manage capital expenditurescapital allocationmixed35% progress
4/30: “Capital expenditures: $650 million incurred, plus or minus 5%.”
Why this status
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Capital expenditures guidance is $650M, plus or minus 5%. The company has consistently reiterated this target, but financials do not provide specific capex figures to assess delivery.
- 3.Achieve free cash flow targetcapital allocationmixed35% progress
4/30: “Underlying free cash flow: $1.1 billion, plus or minus 10%.”
Why this status
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Free cash flow guidance is $1.1B, plus or minus 10%. The company has adjusted its target from $1.3B in 2025-Q3 to $1.1B in 2026-Q1, indicating a downward revision. The trajectory shows limited progress towards achieving the target.
Guidance track record
Insufficient guidance history for this ticker.
Position context
— how violent might the path be while I hold it?Why this risk level
Recent vol — 30d annualized 25%; 252d 26%.
Drawdown — Max 1y −26%. Bad day move −3%.
Beta to sector ETF (XLP) — 1.00 over 1y.
Liquidity — score 100/100.
Sub-scores — vol 57/100, drawdown 49/100, beta 100/100, earnings vol —.
via XLP
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive — historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only — describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-05-08.
What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-05-08
Management scorecard
How management runs the business — capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What management is focused on
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
- #1
Maintain revenue stability
GrowthNew since 2026-05-04Focus on keeping revenue stable despite economic challenges.
MixedStated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Revenue was $3.46B in 2025-Q4, showing a slight decline from $3.48B in 2025-Q3. The company aims to maintain revenue stability despite economic challenges, but the trajectory shows limited progress.
42%CEO/CFO:“We expect to achieve the following targets for full year 2026 despite uncertainties.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-02-18Stated 2 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04Show history (2)
- 2026-Q1Multiple sources
“We expect to achieve the following targets for full year 2026 despite uncertainties.”
- 2025-Q4Multiple sources
“We continue to expect to achieve the following targets for full year 2025.”
- #2
Manage capital expenditures
Capital allocationNew since 2026-05-04Control capital expenditures within the set guidance range.
Behind →MixedStated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Capital expenditures guidance is $650M, plus or minus 5%. The company has consistently reiterated this target, but financials do not provide specific capex figures to assess delivery.
35%CEO/CFO:“Capital expenditures: $650 million incurred, plus or minus 5%.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-04-30Stated 3 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04Show history (3)
- 2026-Q1Multiple sources
“Capital expenditures: $650 million incurred, plus or minus 5%.”
- 2025-Q4Multiple sources
“Capital expenditures: $650 million incurred, plus or minus 5%.”
- 2025-Q3Multiple sources
“Capital expenditures: $650 million incurred, plus or minus 5%.”
- #3
Achieve free cash flow target
Capital allocationNew since 2026-05-04Aim to reach the free cash flow target set for the fiscal year.
Behind →MixedStated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Free cash flow guidance is $1.1B, plus or minus 10%. The company has adjusted its target from $1.3B in 2025-Q3 to $1.1B in 2026-Q1, indicating a downward revision. The trajectory shows limited progress towards achieving the target.
35%CEO/CFO:“Underlying free cash flow: $1.1 billion, plus or minus 10%.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-04-30Stated 3 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04Show history (3)
- 2026-Q1Multiple sources
“Underlying free cash flow: $1.1 billion, plus or minus 10%.”
- 2025-Q4Multiple sources
“Underlying free cash flow: $1.1 billion, plus or minus 10%.”
- 2025-Q3Multiple sources
“Underlying free cash flow: $1.3 billion, plus or minus 10%.”
How this stock is priced
Two ways to read price: against peers in the same business, and against the company's own history.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Around its own typical valuation.
P/E over the last 5 years
35 monthly pointsHow this compares
A side-by-side read on composite, valuation, and risk versus peers.
| Stock | Composite | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
TAP Molson Coors Beverage Company | +1.4 | inexpensive | moderate |
WMT Walmart | -9.3 | expensive | low |
COST Costco | +3.9 | expensive | moderate |
PG Procter & Gamble | +15 | fair | low |
KO Coca-Cola Company (The) | +14 | full | low |
Risk — how this stock moves
What a normal day looks like, what a bad day looks like, and the worst the last year has thrown at it.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios — if X happens, the score would shift by about Y points. These are not predictions.
- If consumer_staples sector trend rises from +0.05 into 'improving' (>= +0.20)+5.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is raised (currently INITIATED as of 2026-04-30)+4.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is cut (currently INITIATED as of 2026-04-30)-8.0 pts
- If labor state reverses from -0.31 (negative) to +0.31 (positive)-6.2 pts
- If consumer_staples sector trend falls from +0.05 into 'weakening' (<= -0.20)-5.0 pts
Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-04-308d agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. Attached as Exhibit 99.1 is a copy of a news release of Molson Coors Beverage Company (the "Company"), dated April 30, 2026, reporting the Company's financial results for the fiscal quarter ended March 31, 2026. Such information including the Exhibit attached hereto, shall not be deemed "filed" for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Se…
earnings preannouncementneutralscore 54 - 2026-02-182mo agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 18, 2026, Molson Coors Beverage Company (the “Company”) issued a news release announcing its financial results for the fourth quarter and fiscal year ended December 31, 2025. The news release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference.
earnings preannouncementneutralscore 11 - 2026-02-182mo agoItem 8.01
Other Items. On February 18, 2026, the Company announced that its Board of Directors (the “ Board ”) has approved, effective immediately, an increase to the Company’s existing Class B common stock repurchase program by $2.0 billion, for an aggregate authorization of up to $4.0 billion, and an extension of the duration of the Class B common stock repurchase program to December 31, 2031. Including this increase, approximately $2.6 billion remained available for repurchase under the Class B comm…
capital allocationpositivescore 8 - 2025-11-205mo agoItem 5.02
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. As previously disclosed on October 6, 2025, Molson Coors Beverage Company (the “Company”) announced that effective November 14, 2025, Michelle St. Jacques, the Company’s Chief Commercial Officer, would depart from the Company. In connection with her departure, Ms. St. Jacques entered into a General Waiver and Release Agreement dated November 14, 20…
executive changeneutralscore 1 - 2025-10-067mo agoItem 5.02
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On October 3, 2025, Molson Coors Beverage Company (the “Company”) determined that effective November 14, 2025, Michelle St. Jacques, the Company’s Chief Commercial Officer, will depart from the Company. In connection with her departure, the Company expects it will enter into a severance agreement with Ms. St. Jacques. 2 Signature Pursuant to the re…
executive changeneutralscore 0
Score history
The composite score, snapshot by snapshot. The dotted line at zero separates leaning-positive from leaning-negative.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.