TransDigm Group (TDG)
NYSEIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-09-04
$1162.05+0.36%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-09-04
Research Workspace
Put TDG beside peers and holdings, graph the same metric, and keep your notes with the evidence.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Industries move in repeating boom-and-bust cycles. This shows where this stock’s industry sits in that cycle, stage by stage (recovery → expansion → supercycle → steady → deceleration → contraction), from its fundamentals (orders, revenue, capital spending), not the stock’s price.
A booming industry is a tailwind for the names in it; a contracting one is a headwind. Companies in the same industry tend to rise and fall together with the cycle, the way a tide lifts and lowers every boat in the harbor at once, so a large part of a stock’s swing can come from where its industry sits rather than from the company itself. It’s context for reading the company’s results, not a buy/sell call. Full explanation →
Aerospace & Defense is in expansion. Describes the industry's cycle state, not a call on this stock.
The stage band shows the industry’s cycle over the chart’s timeline (each color a stage); a ▼ marks a quarter its growth inflected down — amber is an unconfirmed watch, red is confirmed the next quarter. Use “Overlay cycle on chart” to tint the price chart by stage. The industry’s fundamentals, not a signal on this stock.
The reason to own it still holds.
View ThesisRevenue growth is accelerating — up about 17% over the past year.
View GrowthMiddle-of-the-pack quality for its industry.
View QualityManagement screens strong on earnings delivery, margins.
View ManagementExpectations look reasonable — what the market is pricing in sits in line with or below what analysts forecast.
View ValuationModerate volatility — typically moves about 1% a day.
View RiskHealthy across the board
TDG's growth depends on its ability to increase revenue guidance. Recent earnings show strong performance, with revenue growing 23% year over year. The stock trades at 30× P/E, slightly below the peer median of 30.3×. This suggests the price reflects modest growth expectations compared to our view. A key risk is the 16% probability of a miss in the next quarter. Peer multiples imply a price about 25% above where it trades. This read is provisional.
Trailing returns as of 2026-09-04. TDG is total return (includes dividends); the S&P 500 benchmark is price return (the index excludes dividends).
Based on 22 analysts currently covering TDG (as of Sep 2026).
Based on 5 Wall Street analysts offering 12-month price targets for TDG in the last 4 months.
Continue this research
Compare TDG with peers and holdings, graph the same reported metric, keep your questions beside the evidence, and return when the facts change.
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| Compare | Company | Living FV | P/E | Revenue % | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TDG Selected company | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Peer Add a competitor | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Holding Compare a holding | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review |
Selected metric trend
Quarterly · checked companies · value or % of revenue
A consensus fair price across 10 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-09-04. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A price-focused, side-by-side fair-value read versus Aerospace & Defense — fair value, gap to price, and forward P/E.
Our valuation methods disagree too much on this name right now. Rather than print a number we don't believe, we're holding it back until they converge.
Compare the value case
Put TDG next to peers and holdings, compare Living FV and multiples, then graph the driver behind the difference.
M&A concerns could hinder growth and acquisition objectives.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
End-of-day figures as of 2026-09-04. EPS is implied from price ÷ P/E. Not investment advice.
Current $1162.05
The last 12 months of price, then the range of analyst 12-month targets from today’s $1162.05.
Analyst ratings and price targets are third-party Wall Street estimates, not QuarterlyIQ’s view. Not investment advice.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Below average on quality vs scored peers
A second lens on the 12-month fair value: for companies that score high on measured quality (profitability, balance-sheet safety, earnings stability), this read trusts more of today's profit margins instead of averaging them toward their multi-year history the way the headline number does. Shown alongside the fair value above, not in place of it. A diagnostic, not a price target or a buy/sell signal.
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
Advances: Increase revenue guidance for fiscal 2026
Revenue forecast supports growth objective for fiscal 2026.
Advances: Increase revenue guidance for fiscal 2026
Increased revenue guidance supports growth objectives.
Advances: Increase revenue guidance for fiscal 2026
Q2 sales and outlook support revenue growth for fiscal 2026.
Advances: Increase revenue guidance for fiscal 2026
Earnings beat supports revenue growth guidance for fiscal 2026.
Advances: Complete acquisitions of aerospace businesses
Acquisition aligns with growth strategy and enhances market position.