TDG
TransDigm GroupNYSEIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-05-08
As of May 8, 2026, TDG has a composite score of 12.3 and a signal label of "mild favorable." This score is influenced by a medium confidence level of 73.0 and reflects various macroeconomic factors, including growth and labor conditions. The analysis is provisional, indicating that the information may change.
Price
Daily closes from AlphaVantage. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Factor signals
Read top-to-bottom: thesis (is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold), watch flags (has something changed worth re-reading), and position context (how violent might the path be). Each pill is a parallel diagnostic — never aggregated into a single score.
Thesis
— is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold?Why this rank
- Direction share1.00
- Slope (norm)-0.04
- Bonus0.00
Why this rank
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
Why this rank
Watch
— has something changed worth re-reading?Why this setup
EPS estimate $10.05 → $10.19 (+1.3% / 30d). 0 raised, 5 cut, 17 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 4 maintained. 70% of analysts rate Buy.
4 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 28.7% above current price.
3 positive, 1 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
F4 · Management deep-dive — recent events, stated priorities, guidance track record
Recent 8-K events
19 material events in the last 24 months — top 5 listed below.
Stated priorities
3 priorityies extracted from earnings transcripts (as of 2026-05-08).
- 1.Increase revenue guidance for fiscal 2026growthmixed65% progress
5/5: “TransDigm now expects fiscal 2026 net sales to be in the range of $10,300 million to $10,420 million.”
Why this status
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Revenue guidance increased from $9,750 million to $10,420 million, indicating a positive trajectory. The company is delivering on its growth priority by consistently raising its revenue expectations for fiscal 2026.
- 2.Execute share buyback programcapital allocationmixed40% progress
4/15: “TransDigm intends to use the net proceeds of the incremental debt for approximately $800 million of common share repurchases.”
Why this status
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. TransDigm allocated $800 million for share repurchases, funded by new debt. The execution of the buyback program is ongoing, with mixed progress as the company balances capital allocation priorities.
- 3.Complete acquisition of Stellant Systemscapital allocationmixed40% progress
4/15: “TransDigm intends to use the net proceeds of the incremental debt for the acquisition of Stellant Systems.”
Why this status
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. The acquisition of Stellant Systems is planned using proceeds from new debt. Progress is mixed as the acquisition is still pending completion, reflecting ongoing capital allocation efforts.
Guidance track record
Insufficient guidance history for this ticker.
Position context
— how violent might the path be while I hold it?Why this risk level
Recent vol — 30d annualized 38%; 252d 28%.
Drawdown — Max 1y −25%. Bad day move −2%.
Beta to sector ETF (XLI) — 0.74 over 1y.
Liquidity — score 100/100.
Sub-scores — vol 54/100, drawdown 49/100, beta 74/100, earnings vol —.
via XLI
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive — historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only — describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-05-08.
What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-05-08
Management scorecard
How management runs the business — capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What management is focused on
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
- #1
Increase revenue guidance for fiscal 2026
GrowthNew since 2026-05-04TransDigm aims to increase its revenue guidance for fiscal year 2026.
On track →MixedStated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Revenue guidance increased from $9,750 million to $10,420 million, indicating a positive trajectory. The company is delivering on its growth priority by consistently raising its revenue expectations for fiscal 2026.
Revenue guidance increased from $9,750 million to $10,420 million65%CEO/CFO:“TransDigm now expects fiscal 2026 net sales to be in the range of $10,300 million to $10,420 million.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-05-05Stated 3 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04Show history (3)
- 2026-Q1Multiple sources
“TransDigm now expects fiscal 2026 financial guidance to be as follows: Net sales are anticipated to be in the range of $10,300 million to $10,420 million...”
- 2025-Q4Multiple sources
“TransDigm expects fiscal 2026 financial guidance to be as follows: Net sales are anticipated to be in the range of $9,750 million to $9,950 million...”
- 2025-Q3Multiple sources
“TransDigm expects fiscal 2026 financial guidance to be as follows: Net sales are anticipated to be in the range of $9,750 million to $9,950 million...”
- #2
Execute share buyback program
Capital allocationNew since 2026-05-04TransDigm plans to execute a share buyback program using proceeds from new debt.
MixedStated in 2 of last 2 quarters. TransDigm allocated $800 million for share repurchases, funded by new debt. The execution of the buyback program is ongoing, with mixed progress as the company balances capital allocation priorities.
$800 million allocated for share repurchases40%CEO/CFO:“TransDigm intends to use the net proceeds of the incremental debt for approximately $800 million of common share repurchases.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-04-15Stated 2 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04Show history (2)
- 2026-Q1Multiple sources
“TransDigm intends to use the net proceeds of the incremental debt for approximately $800 million of common share repurchases.”
- 2025-Q4Multiple sources
“TransDigm announced a share buyback program.”
- #3
Complete acquisition of Stellant Systems
Capital allocationNew since 2026-05-04TransDigm aims to complete the acquisition of Stellant Systems using proceeds from new debt.
MixedStated in 2 of last 2 quarters. The acquisition of Stellant Systems is planned using proceeds from new debt. Progress is mixed as the acquisition is still pending completion, reflecting ongoing capital allocation efforts.
40%CEO/CFO:“TransDigm intends to use the net proceeds of the incremental debt for the acquisition of Stellant Systems.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-04-15Stated 2 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04Show history (2)
- 2026-Q1Multiple sources
“TransDigm intends to use the net proceeds of the incremental debt for the acquisition of Stellant Systems.”
- 2025-Q4Multiple sources
“TransDigm announced the expected acquisition of Stellant Systems.”
How this stock is priced
Two ways to read price: against peers in the same business, and against the company's own history.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
P/E over the last 5 years
71 monthly pointsHow this compares
A side-by-side read on composite, valuation, and risk versus peers.
| Stock | Composite | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
TDG TransDigm Group | +12 | fair | moderate |
CAT Caterpillar Inc. | +13 | expensive | moderate |
GE GE Aerospace | +11 | expensive | moderate |
GEV GE Vernova | +10 | full | moderate |
RTX RTX Corporation | +20 | fair | moderate |
Risk — how this stock moves
What a normal day looks like, what a bad day looks like, and the worst the last year has thrown at it.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios — if X happens, the score would shift by about Y points. These are not predictions.
- If industrials sector trend rises from +0.05 into 'improving' (>= +0.20)+5.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is cut (currently RAISED as of 2026-05-05)-16 pts
- If industrials sector trend falls from +0.05 into 'weakening' (<= -0.20)-5.0 pts
- If growth state reverses from +0.25 (positive) to -0.25 (negative)-4.0 pts
- If labor state reverses from -0.31 (negative) to +0.31 (positive)-3.7 pts
Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-05-053d agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 5, 2026, TransDigm Group Incorporated (“TransDigm Group” or the “Company”) issued a press release (the “Press Release”) announcing its financial results for its second quarter ended March 28, 2026 and certain other information. A copy of this press release is furnished with this Current Report as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference. The information contained in this item and in the accompanying exhibit shall not be incorpo…
earnings preannouncement—score 61 - 2026-04-1721d agoItem 1.01
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. Completed Financing Summary On April 17, 2026, TransDigm Inc., a wholly-owned subsidiary of TransDigm Group Incorporated (“TransDigm Group”), completed the previously announced offerings of an incremental $1,500 million of new debt, consisting of an additional $500 million of 6.125% Senior Subordinated Notes maturing July 31, 2034 (the “New Notes”) and $1,000 million of additional tranche N term loans (the “New Term Loans”) maturing February 13, 203…
capital allocationpositivescore 41 - 2026-04-1424d agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. TransDigm Group, which includes, for purposes of this Item 2.02, its direct and indirect subsidiaries, is hereby furnishing the following information regarding its business, which has not been previously reported, in connection with the offering of the New Notes (as defined below) and potential Credit Agreement Amendment (as defined below), as discussed in
earnings preannouncementneutralscore 38 - 2026-04-1721d agoItem 2.03
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation. The information set forth in
capital allocationnegativescore 32 - 2026-04-1523d agoItem 7.01
Regulation FD Disclosure. On April 14, 2026, TransDigm Group Incorporated (“TransDigm Group”) priced an incremental $1,500 million of new debt. TransDigm Group intends to use the net proceeds of the incremental debt, together with cash on hand, to fund (i) the purchase price of the previously announced and expected acquisition of Stellant Systems, Inc. (the “Acquisition”) and (ii) approximately $800 million of common share repurchases completed in March 2026, and for related transaction fees…
capital allocationpositivescore 30
Score history
The composite score, snapshot by snapshot. The dotted line at zero separates leaning-positive from leaning-negative.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.