Tredegar Corp. (TG)
NYSEIndustrialsManufacturing - Metal FabricationSnapshot 2026-09-04
$7.76+1.31%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsManufacturing - Metal FabricationSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · TG
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance dropped from the top half to the bottom half of its industry over the past month — the reason to own it has weakened.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -47.5% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 9.0% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 56.5 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 7 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
TG — CFO transition
Dated 2026-07-30
Vice President, Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer — Frasier W. Brickhouse, II: The CFO is retiring and the successor has not been named.
Why it matters: The CFO change could affect financial plans and investor trust at a key time.
Watch forAnnouncement of a new CFO with relevant experience and a clear transition plan.
Also watch forNo news on a new CFO or delays in the transition.
Why it matters: A drop would show weakness in the High Performance Films segment. This affects results.
Worry ifIf Q3 High Performance Films EBITDA is below $5 million, it shows market issues.
Less concerning ifIf Q3 High Performance Films EBITDA is above $5 million, it shows recovery.
Why it matters: An increase in net new orders signals stronger demand and can improve future revenue outlook.
Supportive ifNet new orders average above 3.2 million pounds each week, showing stronger demand.
Worry ifNet new orders average below 3.2 million pounds per week, signaling weaker demand.
Why it matters: Cutting costs could help margins and profits. This shows management's focus on doing better.
Supportive ifManagement says cost cuts will help by Q4 2026.
Worry ifNo benefits from cost cuts by Q4 2026 show a lack of progress.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$146 on $10,000 · ±1.5% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $496 loss on $10,000 · 5.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,976 loss on $10,000 · 29.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Growth in TSLOTS™ shows demand for data-center infrastructure. This aligns with Tredegar's focus on valuable markets.
Supportive ifTSLOTS™ shipments grow year over year by more than 45% in Q3.
Worry ifTSLOTS™ shipments decline year over year or show minimal growth.
Why it matters: Changes in tariffs could greatly impact order volumes and prices. This affects revenue.
Watch forNew tariffs lead to an increase in new orders for Aluminum Extrusions.
Also watch forNew tariffs result in a decline in new orders for Aluminum Extrusions.
Why it matters: Updates on spending show if the company is investing for future growth. This matters to investors.
Supportive ifManagement says Bonnell Aluminum will spend $20M or more.
Worry ifManagement says Bonnell Aluminum will spend less than $20M.
Why it matters: Stable new orders would show strong demand. This would help revenue growth in Aluminum Extrusions.
Supportive ifNew orders in Aluminum Extrusions stay above 3.2 million pounds each week.
Worry ifNew orders drop below 3.2 million pounds weekly. This shows weakening demand.
Why it matters: Falling volumes may show demand problems. This is key for stable revenue.
Worry ifSurface protection volumes decline by more than 10% year over year.
Less concerning ifSurface protection volumes grow or stay the same each year.
Why it matters: If sales volume stays steady or grows, it means recovery from past issues.
Supportive ifSales volume for surface protection films goes up each quarter.
Worry ifSales volume for surface protection films goes down each quarter.