TKO
TKO Group HoldingsNYSECommunication ServicesEntertainmentSnapshot 2026-05-08
As of May 8, 2026, TKO has a mixed analyst signal with a composite score of -8.4, indicating low confidence at 55.8. The score is influenced by unfavorable scenarios such as a potential guidance cut and a reversal in rates, while favorable scenarios include a possible sector trend improvement and a guidance raise. The overall risk is labeled as moderate, with notable weaknesses in momentum (-76.5) and sector performance (17.0). The valuation score is 70.0, categorized as inexpensive. This analysis is provisional.
Price
Daily closes from AlphaVantage. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Factor signals
Read top-to-bottom: thesis (is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold), watch flags (has something changed worth re-reading), and position context (how violent might the path be). Each pill is a parallel diagnostic — never aggregated into a single score.
Thesis
— is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold?Why this rank
- Direction share0.03
- Slope (norm)-0.26
- Bonus0.00
Why this rank
Trailing four: 2024-Q3, 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3
Why this rank
Watch
— has something changed worth re-reading?Why this setup
EPS estimate $1.77 → $1.31 (-25.9% / 30d). 2 raised, 2 cut, 6 covering analysts.
1 upgrade, 0 downgrades / 30d, 2 maintained. 77% of analysts rate Buy.
3 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 24.0% above current price.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
F4 · Management deep-dive — recent events, stated priorities, guidance track record
Recent 8-K events
8 material events in the last 24 months — top 5 listed below.
- 2026-03-10TKO — share buyback announcedimpact 0.34
- 2026-03-10TKO — share buyback announcedimpact 0.27
- 2026-03-10TKO — capital allocation — Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balan…impact 0.27
- 2025-03-24TKO — M&A activity — As of the effective time thereof, Silver Lake and its affiliates beneficially…impact 0.10
- 2024-12-16TKO — litigation filedimpact 0.10
Stated priorities
3 priorityies extracted from earnings transcripts (as of 2026-05-08).
- 1.Achieve revenue target of $5.675B to $5.775B for 2026growthmixed65% progress
5/6: “The Company reaffirmed its target for revenue of $5.675 billion to $5.775 billion.”
Why this status
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Revenue for 2025 was $4.69 billion to $4.72 billion, and the company is targeting $5.675 billion to $5.775 billion for 2026. The trajectory shows a focus on growth, but delivery remains to be seen.
- 2.Achieve Adjusted EBITDA target of $2.240B to $2.290B for 2026growthmixed65% progress
5/6: “The Company reaffirmed its target for Adjusted EBITDA of $2.240 billion to $2.290 billion.”
Why this status
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Adjusted EBITDA for 2025 was targeted at $1.57 billion to $1.58 billion, and the company is aiming for $2.240 billion to $2.290 billion in 2026. The trajectory indicates a significant growth target, but actual delivery is pending.
- 3.Complete Share Repurchase Program within 3-4 yearscapital allocationwatchprovisional
9/15: “The Company expects to complete the Share Repurchase Program within approximately three to four years.”
Why this status
Newly stated in 2025-Q3. The company has not provided specific financial updates on the progress of the Share Repurchase Program since its announcement. The trajectory remains unclear without further financial disclosure.
Guidance track record
Insufficient guidance history for this ticker.
Position context
— how violent might the path be while I hold it?Why this risk level
Recent vol — 30d annualized 27%; 252d 31%.
Drawdown — Max 1y −18%. Bad day move −3%.
Beta to sector ETF (XLC) — 0.81 over 1y.
Liquidity — score 100/100.
Sub-scores — vol 48/100, drawdown 63/100, beta 81/100, earnings vol —.
via XLC
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive — historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only — describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-05-08.
What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-05-08
Management scorecard
How management runs the business — capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What management is focused on
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
- #1
Achieve revenue target of $5.675B to $5.775B for 2026
GrowthNew since 2026-05-06The company aims to achieve a revenue target between $5.675 billion and $5.775 billion for the fiscal year 2026.
MixedStated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Revenue for 2025 was $4.69 billion to $4.72 billion, and the company is targeting $5.675 billion to $5.775 billion for 2026. The trajectory shows a focus on growth, but delivery remains to be seen.
65%CEO/CFO:“The Company reaffirmed its target for revenue of $5.675 billion to $5.775 billion.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-05-06Stated 2 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-06Show history (2)
- 2026-Q1Multiple sources
“The Company reaffirmed its target for revenue of $5.675 billion to $5.775 billion.”
- 2025-Q4Multiple sources
“The Company is targeting revenue of $5.675 billion to $5.775 billion.”
- #2
Achieve Adjusted EBITDA target of $2.240B to $2.290B for 2026
GrowthNew since 2026-05-06The company aims to achieve an Adjusted EBITDA target between $2.240 billion and $2.290 billion for the fiscal year 2026.
MixedStated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Adjusted EBITDA for 2025 was targeted at $1.57 billion to $1.58 billion, and the company is aiming for $2.240 billion to $2.290 billion in 2026. The trajectory indicates a significant growth target, but actual delivery is pending.
65%CEO/CFO:“The Company reaffirmed its target for Adjusted EBITDA of $2.240 billion to $2.290 billion.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-05-06Stated 2 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-06Show history (2)
- 2026-Q1Multiple sources
“The Company reaffirmed its target for Adjusted EBITDA of $2.240 billion to $2.290 billion.”
- 2025-Q4Multiple sources
“The Company is targeting Adjusted EBITDA of $2.240 billion to $2.290 billion.”
- #3
Complete Share Repurchase Program within 3-4 years
Capital allocationThe company plans to complete its Share Repurchase Program within approximately three to four years.
WatchNewly stated in 2025-Q3. The company has not provided specific financial updates on the progress of the Share Repurchase Program since its announcement. The trajectory remains unclear without further financial disclosure.
No scoreCEO/CFO:“The Company expects to complete the Share Repurchase Program within approximately three to four years.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2025-09-15Stated 1 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2025-09-15provisionalShow history (1)
- 2025-Q3Multiple sources
“The Company expects to complete the Share Repurchase Program within approximately three to four years.”
How this stock is priced
Two ways to read price: against peers in the same business, and against the company's own history.
Not enough peers to compare yet.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
P/E over the last 5 years
26 monthly pointsHow this compares
A side-by-side read on composite, valuation, and risk versus peers.
| Stock | Composite | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
TKO TKO Group Holdings | -8.4 | inexpensive | moderate |
GOOGL Alphabet Inc. (Class A) | +31 | fair | moderate |
GOOG Alphabet Inc. (Class C) | +32 | fair | moderate |
META Meta Platforms | +30 | inexpensive | elevated |
NFLX Netflix | +23 | inexpensive | moderate |
Risk — how this stock moves
What a normal day looks like, what a bad day looks like, and the worst the last year has thrown at it.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios — if X happens, the score would shift by about Y points. These are not predictions.
- If communication_services sector trend rises from +0.06 into 'improving' (>= +0.20)+5.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is raised (currently NEW as of 2026-05-06)+4.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is cut (currently NEW as of 2026-05-06)-8.0 pts
- If rates state reverses from -0.37 (negative) to +0.37 (positive)-5.8 pts
- If communication_services sector trend falls from +0.06 into 'weakening' (<= -0.20)-5.0 pts
Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-05-062d agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 6, 2026, TKO Group Holdings, Inc. (the “Company”) announced its financial results for the quarterly period ended March 31, 2026. In addition, the Company provided supplemental financial information based on the historical information of the Company for the fiscal years ended December 31, 2023, 2024, and 2025 to retrospectively reflect the acquisition of Professional Bull Riders, On Location, and certain businesses operating under the IMG b…
earnings preannouncement—score 63 - 2026-03-101mo agoItem 1.01
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On March 10, 2026 (the “Closing Date”), TKO Worldwide Holdings, LLC (“TKO Holdings”) (f/k/a UFC Holdings, LLC), an indirect subsidiary of TKO Group Holdings, Inc. (the “Company” or “TKO”), entered into an amendment (the “Credit Agreement Amendment”) to the First Lien Credit Agreement, dated as of August 18, 2016, among TKO Guarantor, LLC (f/k/a UFC Guarantor, LLC), as holdings, TKO Holdings, as borrower, Goldman Sachs Bank USA, as administrative age…
capital allocationpositivescore 17 - 2026-02-252mo agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 25, 2026, TKO Group Holdings, Inc. (the “Company”) announced its financial results for the quarter and year ended December 31, 2025. In addition, the Company provided supplemental financial information based on the historical information of the Company for the fiscal years ended December 31, 2023, 2024 and 2025, and each of the quarterly periods in fiscal 2024 and 2025 to retrospectively reflect the acquisition of Professional Bull Ri…
earnings preannouncementnegativescore 15 - 2026-03-101mo agoItem 2.03
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant. The information set forth under
capital allocationnegativescore 13 - 2026-03-101mo agoItem 8.01
Other Events. On March 10, 2026 the Company issued a press release announcing that it had entered into an accelerated share repurchase agreement (the “ASR Agreement”) with Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC (the “Dealer”) to repurchase $800.0 million of shares of the Company’s Class A common stock, par value $0.00001 per share (the “Class A Common Stock”), as part of the Company’s previously announced $2.0 billion share repurchase program (the “Share Repurchase Program”). The full text of the press rel…
capital allocationpositivescore 13
Score history
The composite score, snapshot by snapshot. The dotted line at zero separates leaning-positive from leaning-negative.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.