Tenaya Therapeutics Inc (TNYA)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-09-04
$0.68-1.74%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · TNYA
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 165.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 35.0% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 130.7 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Worth watching into the next print: this name operates in a high-miss-rate industry and is a smaller-cap name (higher miss base rate). A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 398 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
TNYA — earnings in line
Dated 2026-08-05
and Item 9.01 (including Exhibit 99.1) shall not be deemed to be “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (“Exchange Act”), and shall not be incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such a filing.
Why it matters: Regulatory alignment could pave the way for pivotal trials for TN-401. This is crucial for its future.
Supportive ifManagement says they agree with regulators on TN-401 trial plans.
Worry ifNo news or bad feedback from regulators about TN-401's trial plans.
Why it matters: Details on TN-301 could indicate progress in treating heart failure. Positive updates may enhance the company's growth outlook.
Supportive ifManagement has a clear timeline for starting TN-301 clinical trials.
Worry ifNo clear timeline or plan is provided for TN-301's development.
Why it matters: Getting funding is important for Tenaya to keep its operations and projects going.
Supportive ifAn announcement says a funding round or partnership was successful.
Worry ifNo funding news or signs of cash flow problems.
Why it matters: Progress on this collaboration could lead to new gene targets for heart disease. It is key for growth.
Supportive ifA press release will announce progress in the Alnylam partnership.
Worry ifNo updates or delays in the partnership will be reported next quarter.
Why it matters: Successful cost reductions will impact Tenaya's financial health and cash runway. This is crucial for operations.
Supportive ifManagement says they have successfully cut costs to improve cash flow.
Worry ifHigher costs or failure to cut costs after the lease ended.
Why it matters: New data may show that the therapy works for MYBPC3-related HCM. Good results may help investors feel more confident.
Supportive ifInterim data shows big improvements in heart tests for TN-201.
Worry ifInterim data shows no improvements. No bad effects were reported.
Why it matters: Good updates may show TN-401 can help treat a heart condition. This could help investors.
Supportive ifPositive interim data from the RIDGE-1 trial shows real improvements in patient health.
Worry ifInterim data from the RIDGE-1 trial shows no real improvements in patient health.
Why it matters: Starting the Phase 2 trial would show progress for TN-301 in heart failure and muscle diseases. This could help Tenaya's pipeline.
Supportive ifTN-301 enters Phase 2 clinical trials as planned.
Worry ifTN-301's Phase 2 trial is delayed or canceled.
Why it matters: The new CFO may improve Tenaya's financial plans and operations. This could boost investor trust.
Supportive ifTenaya reports better financial results or plans under the new CFO's leadership.
Worry ifThere are no clear improvements in financial plans. Operations also show no changes.
Why it matters: New data could clarify the safety and efficacy of TN-201 for HCM. This is key for future approvals.
Supportive ifInterim data reported for Cohort 2 (6E13 vg/kg) and updates from Cohort 1 (3E13 vg/kg).
Worry ifNo new data released or data shows safety concerns.
Why it matters: This collaboration could lead to new gene targets and potential revenue. Progress here may signal growth opportunities.
Supportive ifUpdates on the nomination of 15 gene targets for heart disease treatment.
Worry ifNo progress was reported. Targets were not set as planned.
Why it matters: Meeting Nasdaq listing rules is key for Tenaya's market presence and funding.
Worry ifA public announcement shows that Nasdaq listing rules are met.
Less concerning ifNot meeting Nasdaq rules could lead to possible delisting.
Why it matters: This data will show how well TN-401 works for ARVC. Good results could boost investor trust.
Supportive ifTenaya presents one-year data for Cohort 1 (3E13 vg/kg) and initial Cohort 2 (6E13 vg/kg) at ASGCT on May 15, 2026.
Worry ifThe presentation data shows no clear benefits. There are also no safety problems.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$224 on $10,000 · ±2.2% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $794 loss on $10,000 · 7.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $7,381 loss on $10,000 · 73.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.