TOMI Environmental Solutions Inc (TOMZ)
NASDAQIndustrialsIndustrial - Pollution & Treatment ControlsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$1.70+3.03%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsIndustrial - Pollution & Treatment ControlsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · TOMZ
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -40.9% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 4.0% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 44.8 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name is a smaller-cap name (higher miss base rate) and operates in a high-miss-rate industry. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 6 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
TOMZ — litigation filed
Dated 2026-06-29
of this Current Report on Form 8-K, including Exhibits 99.1. The press release contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. With the exception of historical matters, the matters discussed in the press releases include forward-looking statements within the meaning of applicable securities laws. Such forward-looking statements include, among others, statements regarding the Company’s projects, potential financial performance, an…
Why it matters: New approvals would help TOMI grow in global markets and show its strategy works.
Supportive ifApproval of SteraMist products in at least two more EU countries.
Worry ifNo new regulatory approvals in the EU shows slow market growth.
Why it matters: TOMZ has received a notice of delisting. Compliance is crucial for its stock's future.
Worry ifTOMZ says it is back in line with Nasdaq listing rules.
Less concerning ifTOMZ receives further notices or fails to meet compliance deadlines.
Why it matters: Fixing compliance issues is key for TOMI's listing and investor trust.
Worry ifFixing Nasdaq compliance issues by August 2026 is important.
Less concerning ifFurther notices of delisting or failure to meet compliance standards.
Why it matters: New approvals can open more markets for TOMI's products. This can boost sales.
Supportive ifTOMI gets regulatory approvals in at least two new EU countries by Q4 2026.
Worry ifNo new regulatory approvals are gained by Q4 2026.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$310 on $10,000 · ±3.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $816 loss on $10,000 · 8.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,352 loss on $10,000 · 53.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Better margins show improved efficiency. This helps with long-term profit goals.
Supportive ifGross profit margin rises from about 50% in Q1 2026.
Worry ifGross profit margin declines further from 50% in Q1 2026.
Why it matters: These approvals would help TOMI reach more customers in Europe. This could increase international sales.
Supportive ifTOMI got approvals for SteraMist products in France and Switzerland.
Worry ifNo approvals received in France and Switzerland by the end of Q3 2026.
Why it matters: This merger could help TOMI grow and improve its market position.
Supportive ifTOMI and Carbonium Core will sign merger agreements by May 30, 2026.
Worry ifNo agreements signed by the deadline or new delays announced.
Why it matters: If the sector's revenue growth speeds up, it could benefit TOMZ's performance.
Supportive ifSector revenue growth exceeds 5% year over year.
Worry ifSector revenue growth remains below 5% year over year.
Why it matters: Closing the merger would help TOMI enter the nuclear-grade graphite market. This could boost growth.
Supportive ifDefinitive agreements signed and merger closed by the end of Q3 2026.
Worry ifMerger not completed by the end of Q3 2026.
Why it matters: This growth would confirm TOMI's trajectory toward its $12 million revenue goal for 2026.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue reaches at least $3.0 million, indicating continued strong growth.
Worry ifQ3 revenue falls below $2.5 million, suggesting a slowdown in growth.
Why it matters: Closing the merger would help TOMI's market position. It would also diversify its business.
Supportive ifThe merger with Carbonium Core is done. It has been announced to shareholders.
Worry ifThe merger is delayed beyond the expected timeline or fails to close.
Why it matters: Strong BIT sales growth helps TOMI's recurring revenue plan. It also supports its financial health.
Supportive ifBIT Solution sales exceed $1 million in Q3 2026.
Worry ifBIT Solution sales fall below $800,000 in Q3 2026.