TPL
Texas Pacific Land CorporationNYSEEnergyOil & Gas E&pSnapshot 2026-05-08
As of May 8, 2026, TPL has a composite score of 14.8 and a signal label of "mild_favorable." This change is driven by a significant increase in the company momentum score, which rose by 40.2 points to 35.1, and a valuation score that increased by 32.1 points to 41.9. The valuation label also changed from "expensive" to "full." The analysis is provisional.
Price
Daily closes from AlphaVantage. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Factor signals
Read top-to-bottom: thesis (is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold), watch flags (has something changed worth re-reading), and position context (how violent might the path be). Each pill is a parallel diagnostic — never aggregated into a single score.
Thesis
— is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold?Why this rank
- Direction share1.00
- Slope (norm)-0.05
- Bonus0.00
Why this rank
Trailing four: 2024-Q3, 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3
Why this rank
Watch
— has something changed worth re-reading?Why this setup
EPS estimate $2.00 → $2.50 (+25.0% / 30d). 1 raised, 0 cut, 2 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 50% of analysts rate Buy.
1 positive, 1 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
F4 · Management deep-dive — recent events, stated priorities, guidance track record
Recent 8-K events
5 material events in the last 24 months — top 5 listed below.
Stated priorities
3 priorityies extracted from earnings transcripts (as of 2026-05-08).
- 1.Focus on strategic acquisitionsgrowthbehind7% progress
5/6: “Board appointed Peter Doyle to the strategic acquisitions committee.”
Why this status
Newly stated in 2026-Q2. The appointment of Peter Doyle to the strategic acquisitions committee indicates a focus on enhancing growth through acquisitions. However, there is no financial data yet to assess the impact of this strategic direction.
- 2.Improve free cash flowcapital allocationmixed37% progress
5/6: “Free cash flow of $136.4 million for the quarter ending June 30, 2026.”
Why this status
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Free cash flow was $136.4 million for 2026-Q2, down from $379.5 million in 2025-Q4. The focus on improving free cash flow is evident, but the recent decline suggests limited progress in achieving this goal.
- 3.Enhance revenue growthgrowthbehind7% progress
5/6: “Total revenues for the first quarter of 2026 were $236.8 million.”
Why this status
Newly stated in 2026-Q2. Total revenues for 2026-Q2 were $236.8 million, indicating a focus on revenue growth. However, without prior period comparison, the trajectory of revenue growth remains unclear.
Guidance track record
Insufficient guidance history for this ticker.
Position context
— how violent might the path be while I hold it?Why this risk level
Recent vol — 30d annualized 70%; 252d 47%.
Drawdown — Max 1y −42%. Bad day move −4%.
Beta to sector ETF (XLE) — 0.08 over 1y.
Liquidity — score 100/100.
Sub-scores — vol 23/100, drawdown 15/100, beta 8/100, earnings vol —.
via XLE
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive — historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only — describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-05-08.
What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
- score change · company_momentum_scoreseverity 67
Company momentum rose by 40.2 points (from -5.1 to 35.1).
- score change · valuation_scoreseverity 64
Valuation rose by 32.1 points (from 9.8 to 41.9).
- score change · composite_insight_scoreseverity 31
Composite insight rose by 15.7 points (from -0.9 to 14.8).
- label change · signal_labelseverity 20
Signal changed from 'mixed' to 'mild_favorable'.
- label change · valuation_labelseverity 20
Valuation label changed from 'expensive' to 'full'.
As of 2026-05-08, TPL's company momentum score rose by 40.2 points, from -5.1 to 35.1. The valuation score increased by 32.1 points, moving from 9.8 to 41.9. The signal label changed from 'mixed' to 'mild_favorable', and the valuation label shifted from 'expensive' to 'full'. These changes indicate upward movements in key scores and a transition to more favorable labels.
as of 2026-05-08
Management scorecard
How management runs the business — capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What management is focused on
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
- #1
Focus on strategic acquisitions
GrowthNew since 2026-05-06Emphasize strategic acquisitions to enhance growth and market position.
BehindNewly stated in 2026-Q2. The appointment of Peter Doyle to the strategic acquisitions committee indicates a focus on enhancing growth through acquisitions. However, there is no financial data yet to assess the impact of this strategic direction.
7%CEO/CFO:“Board appointed Peter Doyle to the strategic acquisitions committee.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-05-06Stated 1 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-06Show history (1)
- 2026-Q2Multiple sources
“Board appointed Peter Doyle to the strategic acquisitions committee.”
- #2
Improve free cash flow
Capital allocationNew since 2026-05-06Enhance free cash flow generation to support financial stability and growth.
MixedStated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Free cash flow was $136.4 million for 2026-Q2, down from $379.5 million in 2025-Q4. The focus on improving free cash flow is evident, but the recent decline suggests limited progress in achieving this goal.
37%CEO/CFO:“Free cash flow of $136.4 million for the quarter ending June 30, 2026.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-05-06Stated 2 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-06Show history (2)
- 2026-Q2Multiple sources
“Free cash flow of $136.4 million.”
- 2025-Q4Multiple sources
“Free cash flow of $379.5 million.”
- #3
Enhance revenue growth
GrowthNew since 2026-05-06Drive revenue growth to strengthen financial performance and market position.
BehindNewly stated in 2026-Q2. Total revenues for 2026-Q2 were $236.8 million, indicating a focus on revenue growth. However, without prior period comparison, the trajectory of revenue growth remains unclear.
7%CEO/CFO:“Total revenues for the first quarter of 2026 were $236.8 million.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-05-06Stated 1 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-06Show history (1)
- 2026-Q2Multiple sources
“Total revenues for the first quarter of 2026 were $236.8 million.”
How this stock is priced
Two ways to read price: against peers in the same business, and against the company's own history.
Not enough peers to compare yet.
Around its own typical valuation.
P/E over the last 5 years
62 monthly pointsHow this compares
A side-by-side read on composite, valuation, and risk versus peers.
| Stock | Composite | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
TPL Texas Pacific Land Corporation | +15 | full | elevated |
XOM ExxonMobil | +5.8 | expensive | moderate |
CVX Chevron Corporation | +3.0 | expensive | moderate |
COP ConocoPhillips | +8.0 | expensive | moderate |
WMB Williams Companies | +4.1 | fair | moderate |
Risk — how this stock moves
What a normal day looks like, what a bad day looks like, and the worst the last year has thrown at it.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios — if X happens, the score would shift by about Y points. These are not predictions.
- If inflation state reverses from -0.34 (negative) to +0.34 (positive)+5.4 pts
- If energy sector trend rises from -0.03 into 'improving' (>= +0.20)+5.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is raised (currently NEW as of 2026-05-06)+4.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is cut (currently NEW as of 2026-05-06)-8.0 pts
- If energy sector trend falls from -0.03 into 'weakening' (<= -0.20)-5.0 pts
Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-05-062d agoItem 5.02
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. Appointment of Director On May 5, 2026, the Board appointed Peter Doyle to the Board. Mr. Doyle will stand for re-election at the 2026 Annual Meeting. Mr. Doyle was also appointed to serve on the strategic acquisitions committee of the Board. Mr. Doyle is a co-founder and the Co-Chief Executive Officer of Horizon Kinetics (OTCQX: HKHC). He is a sen…
executive changeneutralscore 76 - 2026-05-062d agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. The Company hereby incorporates by reference the contents of a press release announcing financial results for the three months ended March 31, 2026, which was released to the press on May 6, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this current Report on Form 8-K.
earnings preannouncementnegativescore 75 - 2026-05-062d agoItem 1.01
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. Board Representative Agreement On May 5, 2026, Texas Pacific Land Corporation, a Delaware corporation (the “Company”), entered into a Board Representative Agreement (the “Agreement”) with Horizon Kinetics Holding Corporation (“Horizon Kinetics”) and Horizon Kinetics Asset Management LLC (together with Horizon Kinetics and collectively with their respective affiliates, including the HK Funds (as defined in the Agreement), “Horizon”). Pursuant to the…
mna activitypositivescore 63 - 2026-02-182mo agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. Texas Pacific Land Corporation (the “Company”) hereby incorporates by reference the contents of a press release announcing financial results for the three months and year ended December 31, 2025, which was released to the press on February 18, 2026 . A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this current Report on Form 8-K.
earnings preannouncementneutralscore 11 - 2025-08-278mo agoItem 5.02
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On August 26, 2025, Eric L. Oliver, a member of the Board of Directors (the “ Board ”) of Texas Pacific Land Corporation (the “ Company ”), notified the Company of his decision to not stand for reelection to the Board at the Company’s 2025 annual meeting of stockholders (the “ Annual Meeting ”). Mr. Oliver will continue to serve as a director until…
executive changeneutralscore 0
Score history
The composite score, snapshot by snapshot. The dotted line at zero separates leaning-positive from leaning-negative.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.