FIRST TRACKS BIOTHERAPEUTICS INC (TRAX)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-05
$45.43-7.36%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · TRAX
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -28.5% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | Not available |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
A comparable growth gap is not available.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name has been missing across recent quarters and operates in a high-miss-rate industry. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 116 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
TRAX — private placement
Dated 2026-10-20
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On October 19, 2026 (the “Closing Date”), First Tracks Biotherapeutics, Inc. (the “Company”) closed its previously announced private placement (the “Private Placement”) of an aggregate 6,106,870 shares (the “Shares”) of the Company’s common stock, par value $0.001 per share. At the closing of the Private Placement, the Company entered into a registration rights agreement (the “Registration Rights Agreement”) with the investors in the Private Placeme…
Why it matters: Management plans to test ANB033 in two more diseases. Starting both trials would show the program is expanding on schedule.
Supportive ifThe company starts both planned ANB033 Phase 2 trials by June 30, 2027, and names both diseases.
Worry ifThe company starts fewer than two trials by June 30, 2027, or reports a delay beyond H1 2027.
Why it matters: The readout will show whether ANB033 has a signal in another disease. A benefit versus placebo would support its use across more than one disease.
Supportive ifThe Q3 2027 trial data show a benefit on the measured disease signs with ANB033 versus placebo after 12 weeks.
Worry ifThe data show no benefit on the measured disease signs versus placebo, or the readout slips past Q3 2027.
Why it matters: This study tests healing over 12 weeks in patients with varied disease signs and symptoms. Better healing would add support beyond the gluten challenge study.
Supportive ifThe Q1 2027 data show better gut lining healing with ANB033 than with placebo over 12 weeks.
Worry ifThe data show no better healing with ANB033 than with placebo, or the readout slips past Q1 2027.
Why it matters: The company had $168.0 million in cash and investments at June 30, then raised about $200 million gross. The next report can show cash use after the raise.
Watch forThe Nov. 11 report shows cash and investments above $300 million and keeps the cash runway into Q2 2028.
Also watch forThe Nov. 11 report puts cash and investments below $300 million or no longer states a runway into Q2 2028.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$305 on $10,000 · ±3.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $816 loss on $10,000 · 8.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,616 loss on $10,000 · 36.2% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.