TRGP
Targa ResourcesNYSEEnergyOil & Gas MidstreamSnapshot 2026-05-08
As of May 8, 2026, TRGP has a composite score of 16.5 and a signal label of "mild_favorable." This change reflects a significant rise in company momentum, which increased by 57.9 points to 70.9, and an improvement in valuation, which rose by 24.6 points to 48.2. The composite insight score also improved by 17.0 points, moving from -0.5 to 16.5. The overall assessment is provisional.
Price
Daily closes from AlphaVantage. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Factor signals
Read top-to-bottom: thesis (is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold), watch flags (has something changed worth re-reading), and position context (how violent might the path be). Each pill is a parallel diagnostic — never aggregated into a single score.
Thesis
— is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold?Why this rank
- Direction share1.00
- Slope (norm)-0.23
- Bonus0.00
Why this rank
Trailing four: 2024-Q3, 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3
Why this rank
Watch
— has something changed worth re-reading?Why this setup
EPS estimate $2.38 → $2.40 (+0.9% / 30d). 1 raised, 0 cut, 5 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 1 downgrade / 30d, 5 maintained. 87% of analysts rate Buy.
4 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 7.3% above current price.
0 positive, 1 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
F4 · Management deep-dive — recent events, stated priorities, guidance track record
Recent 8-K events
5 material events in the last 24 months — top 5 listed below.
- 2026-03-02TRGP — share buyback announcedimpact 0.33
- 2026-03-02TRGP — capital allocation — Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balan…impact 0.26
- 2026-02-26TRGP — share buyback announcedimpact 0.26
- 2025-02-20TRGP — CFO transitionimpact 0.24
- 2024-05-20TRGP — Principal Accounting Officer transitionimpact 0.08
Stated priorities
3 priorityies extracted from earnings transcripts (as of 2026-05-08).
- 1.Increase 2026 adjusted EBITDA estimategrowthbehind0% progress
5/7: “Increasing full year 2026 adjusted EBITDA estimate to $5.7 billion to $5.9 billion.”
Why this status
Newly stated in 2026-Q1. Management increased the full year 2026 adjusted EBITDA estimate to $5.7 billion to $5.9 billion. However, the recent earnings miss event suggests limited progress towards achieving this target, indicating a challenging trajectory.
- 2.Maintain 2026 net growth capex at $4.5 billioncapital allocationmixed30% progress
5/7: “We continue to estimate 2026 net growth capital expenditures of approximately $4.5 billion.”
Why this status
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Management maintains the 2026 net growth capital expenditures estimate at $4.5 billion. Despite the earnings miss, the capex target remains unchanged, indicating a stable but cautious approach to capital allocation.
- 3.Recommend $5.00 annual dividend per share in 2026capital allocationon track71% progress
2/19: “Expect to recommend to Targa’s Board of Directors an annual common dividend per share of $5.00 in 2026, a 25% increase to 2025.”
Why this status
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Management plans to recommend a $5.00 annual dividend per share in 2026, a 25% increase from 2025. Despite the earnings miss, the dividend increase reflects confidence in future cash flows, though financial pressures may challenge this commitment.
Guidance track record
Insufficient guidance history for this ticker.
Position context
— how violent might the path be while I hold it?Why this risk level
Recent vol — 30d annualized 28%; 252d 27%.
Drawdown — Max 1y −16%. Bad day move −3%.
Beta to sector ETF (XLE) — 0.07 over 1y.
Liquidity — score 100/100.
Sub-scores — vol 54/100, drawdown 67/100, beta 7/100, earnings vol —.
via XLE
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive — historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only — describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-05-08.
What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
- score change · company_momentum_scoreseverity 97
Company momentum rose by 57.9 points (from 13.0 to 70.9).
- score change · valuation_scoreseverity 49
Valuation rose by 24.6 points (from 23.6 to 48.2).
- score change · composite_insight_scoreseverity 34
Composite insight rose by 17.0 points (from -0.5 to 16.5).
- label change · signal_labelseverity 20
Signal changed from 'mixed' to 'mild_favorable'.
- label change · valuation_labelseverity 20
Valuation label changed from 'expensive' to 'full'.
As of 2026-05-08, TRGP's company momentum rose by 57.9 points, increasing from 13.0 to 70.9. Valuation also increased by 24.6 points, moving from 23.6 to 48.2. The signal label changed from 'mixed' to 'mild_favorable', and the valuation label changed from 'expensive' to 'full'.
as of 2026-05-08
Management scorecard
How management runs the business — capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What management is focused on
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
- #1
Increase 2026 adjusted EBITDA estimate
GrowthNew since 2026-05-07Management aims to increase the full year 2026 adjusted EBITDA estimate to $5.7 billion to $5.9 billion.
BehindNewly stated in 2026-Q1. Management increased the full year 2026 adjusted EBITDA estimate to $5.7 billion to $5.9 billion. However, the recent earnings miss event suggests limited progress towards achieving this target, indicating a challenging trajectory.
0%CEO/CFO:“Increasing full year 2026 adjusted EBITDA estimate to $5.7 billion to $5.9 billion.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-05-07Stated 1 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-07Show history (1)
- 2026-Q1Multiple sources
“Increasing full year 2026 adjusted EBITDA estimate to $5.7 billion to $5.9 billion.”
- #2
Maintain 2026 net growth capex at $4.5 billion
Capital allocationNew since 2026-05-07Management continues to estimate 2026 net growth capital expenditures of approximately $4.5 billion.
MixedStated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Management maintains the 2026 net growth capital expenditures estimate at $4.5 billion. Despite the earnings miss, the capex target remains unchanged, indicating a stable but cautious approach to capital allocation.
30%CEO/CFO:“We continue to estimate 2026 net growth capital expenditures of approximately $4.5 billion.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-05-07Stated 2 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-07Show history (2)
- 2026-Q1Multiple sources
“We continue to estimate 2026 net growth capital expenditures of approximately $4.5 billion.”
- 2025-Q4Multiple sources
“Estimates 2026 net growth capital expenditures of approximately $4.5 billion.”
- #3
Recommend $5.00 annual dividend per share in 2026
Capital allocationManagement plans to recommend an annual common dividend per share of $5.00 in 2026, a 25% increase from 2025.
On trackStated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Management plans to recommend a $5.00 annual dividend per share in 2026, a 25% increase from 2025. Despite the earnings miss, the dividend increase reflects confidence in future cash flows, though financial pressures may challenge this commitment.
71%CEO/CFO:“Expect to recommend to Targa’s Board of Directors an annual common dividend per share of $5.00 in 2026, a 25% increase to 2025.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-02-19Stated 2 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-02-19Show history (2)
- 2025-Q4Multiple sources
“Expect to recommend to Targa’s Board of Directors an annual common dividend per share of $5.00 in 2026, a 25% increase to 2025.”
- 2025-Q3Multiple sources
“Expect to recommend to Targa’s Board of Directors an annual common dividend per share of $5.00 in 2026, a 25% increase to 2025.”
How this stock is priced
Two ways to read price: against peers in the same business, and against the company's own history.
Not enough peers to compare yet.
Around its own typical valuation.
P/E over the last 5 years
56 monthly pointsHow this compares
A side-by-side read on composite, valuation, and risk versus peers.
| Stock | Composite | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
TRGP Targa Resources | +17 | full | moderate |
XOM ExxonMobil | +5.8 | expensive | moderate |
CVX Chevron Corporation | +3.0 | expensive | moderate |
COP ConocoPhillips | +8.0 | expensive | moderate |
WMB Williams Companies | +4.1 | fair | moderate |
Risk — how this stock moves
What a normal day looks like, what a bad day looks like, and the worst the last year has thrown at it.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios — if X happens, the score would shift by about Y points. These are not predictions.
- If inflation state reverses from -0.34 (negative) to +0.34 (positive)+5.4 pts
- If energy sector trend rises from -0.03 into 'improving' (>= +0.20)+5.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is cut (currently RAISED as of 2026-05-07)-16 pts
- If energy sector trend falls from -0.03 into 'weakening' (<= -0.20)-5.0 pts
- If labor state reverses from -0.31 (negative) to +0.31 (positive)-3.1 pts
Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-05-071d agoItem 2.02
The press release and accompanying schedules and/or the conference call discussions include the non-generally accepted accounting principles (“non-GAAP”) financial measures of adjusted EBITDA, adjusted cash flow from operations, adjusted free cash flow and adjusted operating margin (segment). The press release provides reconciliations of these non-GAAP financial measures to their most directly comparable financial measures calculated and presented in accordance with accounting principles gene…
earnings preannouncementnegativescore 76 - 2026-03-022mo agoItem 1.01
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On March 2, 2026, Targa Resources Corp. (the “Company”), along with certain of its subsidiaries (the “Subsidiary Guarantors”), completed the previously announced underwritten public offering (the “Offering”) of (i) $750.0 million aggregate principal amount of the Company’s 4.350% Senior Notes due 2031 (the “2031 Notes”) and (ii) $750.0 million aggregate principal amount of the Company’s 6.050% Senior Notes due 2056 (the “2056 Notes,” and, together w…
capital allocationpositivescore 14 - 2026-02-192mo agoItem 2.02
The press release and accompanying schedules and/or the conference call discussions include the non-generally accepted accounting principles (“non-GAAP”) financial measures of adjusted EBITDA, adjusted cash flow from operations, adjusted free cash flow and adjusted operating margin (segment). The press release provides reconciliations of these non-GAAP financial measures to their most directly comparable financial measures calculated and presented in accordance with accounting principles gene…
earnings preannouncementpositivescore 12 - 2026-03-022mo agoItem 2.03
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant. The information contained in
capital allocationnegativescore 11 - 2026-02-262mo agoItem 8.01
Other Events. On February 25, 2026, the Company and certain of its subsidiary guarantors named therein (the “Subsidiary Guarantors”) entered into an underwriting agreement (the “Underwriting Agreement”) with MUFG Securities Americas Inc., PNC Capital Markets LLC, TD Securities (USA) LLC and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, as representatives of the several underwriters named therein, pursuant to which the Company agreed to issue and sell $1.5 billion in aggregate principal amount of senior notes…
capital allocationpositivescore 10
Score history
The composite score, snapshot by snapshot. The dotted line at zero separates leaning-positive from leaning-negative.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.