TrustCo Bank Corp NY (TRST)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-05
$56.54-2.69%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · TRST
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 23.7% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 8.3% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 15.4 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 231 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
TRST — dividend update
Dated 2026-08-18
Other Events On August 18, 2026, TrustCo Bank Corp NY (“TrustCo”) issued a press release announcing that its Board of Directors declared an increased quarterly cash dividend of $0.40 per share, or $1.60 per share on an annualized basis. The declared dividend represents an increase of 5.3% over the prior dividend amount. The dividend will be payable on October 1, 2026 to shareholders of record at the close of business on September 4, 2026. A copy of the press release announcing the dividend de…
Why it matters: Margin rose to 2.95% in Q3 as loans repriced and funding costs fell. Another rise would show this lift is still working.
Supportive ifQ4 net interest margin is above 2.95%, with net interest income above $47.0 million.
Worry ifQ4 net interest margin falls below 2.79%, or net interest income falls below $43.1 million.
Why it matters: Average deposits grew 4.2% in Q3 and helped fund loan growth as funding costs fell. A drop could weaken that support.
Worry ifQ4 average deposits are lower than a year earlier.
Less concerning ifQ4 average deposits grow at least 4.2% year over year.
Why it matters: TrustCo had bought 1.5 million shares in the first nine months. Reaching 3 million would meet its stated 2026 pace.
Supportive ifA year-end filing or release shows 3 million shares bought under the 2026 repurchase program.
Worry ifYear-end reports show fewer than 3 million shares bought under the 2026 program.
Why it matters: Average loans grew 4.6% in Q3. More growth would support the bank's plan to earn more from loans.
Supportive ifQ4 average loans are up more than 4.6% from the same quarter a year earlier.
Worry ifQ4 average loans are flat or lower year over year.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$84 on $10,000 · ±0.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $227 loss on $10,000 · 2.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $934 loss on $10,000 · 9.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Nonperforming loans rose to 0.39% from 0.36% a year earlier. A further rise could test management's claim that loan quality is steady.
Worry ifThe next reported nonperforming loan ratio is above 0.39% of total loans.
Less concerning ifThe next reported ratio is 0.39% or lower, and the allowance still covers at least 261.8% of nonperforming loans.