NYSEFinancialsInsurance - Property & CasualtySnapshot 2026-07-08
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Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 13 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $343.68. As of 2026-07-08. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Top 25% on quality vs scored peers
A second lens on the 12-month fair value: for companies that score high on measured quality (profitability, balance-sheet safety, earnings stability), this read trusts more of today's profit margins instead of averaging them toward their multi-year history the way the headline number does. Shown alongside the fair value above, not in place of it. A diagnostic, not a price target or a buy/sell signal.
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $344 the market pays 2.3× p/b — above the 1.8× p/b peer median but in line with its own 2× history. That premium reflects a durable franchise our peer-anchored $328 fair value understates; treat the 'expensive vs peers' read with medium confidence. Analysts target $295–$322. Note: our $328 fair value sits above the entire analyst range ($295–$322). Not investment advice.
$295.00 – $322.00 (median $314.00) · 3 analysts · as of 2026-06-12
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| analyst target | 12M | $314.00 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| dcf fcfe | 12M | $1130.92 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| dcf fcff | 12M | $1191.20 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| ddm gordon | 12M | $88.33 | — | — | TTM | high |
| graham number | 12M | $332.20 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Mgmt guidance | 12M | $99.31 | 15.3 | 6.51 | Mgmt | high |
| Peer P/B | 12M | $257.40 | 1.8 | 146.46 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 12M | $299.53 | 7.5 | 40.11 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $510.89 | 15.3 | 33.49 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $343.68 | 1.5 | 224.09 | TTM | high |
| residual income | 12M | $236.50 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Own P/E history | 12M | $343.68 | 10.3 | 33.49 | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $566.83 | 15.3 | 37.16 | Triangulated | high |
| Mgmt guidance | 3Y | $71.94 | 15.3 | 4.72 | Mgmt(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/B | 3Y | $357.16 | 1.8 | 203.22 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 3Y | $399.75 | 7.5 | 53.52 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $370.09 | 15.3 | 24.26 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $287.41 | 1.5 | 187.40 | Analyst | medium |
| Own P/E history | 3Y | $248.96 | 10.3 | 24.26 | Analyst | medium |
| Mgmt guidance | 5Y | $58.03 | 15.3 | 3.80 | Mgmt(prov.) | high |
| Peer P/B | 5Y | $444.32 | 1.8 | 252.81 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 5Y | $484.57 | 7.5 | 64.88 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | high |
| Peer P/E | 5Y | $298.51 | 15.3 | 19.57 | Analyst | high |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $255.12 | 1.5 | 166.35 | Analyst | high |
| Own P/E history | 5Y | $200.81 | 10.3 | 19.57 | Analyst | high |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
