TSCO
Tractor SupplyNASDAQConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-05-08
As of May 8, 2026, TSCO has a composite score of 6.0 and a signal label of "mixed." The score reflects medium confidence at 74.8, with elevated risk due to a momentum score of -38.7. Key drivers include macroeconomic factors such as growth, rates, inflation, and labor, while sector trends and guidance changes could lead to both favorable and unfavorable scenarios. This analysis is provisional.
Price
Daily closes from AlphaVantage. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Factor signals
Read top-to-bottom: thesis (is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold), watch flags (has something changed worth re-reading), and position context (how violent might the path be). Each pill is a parallel diagnostic — never aggregated into a single score.
Thesis
— is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold?Why this rank
- Direction share1.00
- Slope (norm)-0.02
- Bonus0.00
Why this rank
Trailing four: 2024-Q3, 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3
Why this rank
Watch
— has something changed worth re-reading?Why this setup
EPS estimate $0.87 → $0.86 (-1.1% / 30d). 1 raised, 14 cut, 21 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 1 downgrade / 30d, 16 maintained. 55% of analysts rate Buy.
6 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 27.1% above current price.
0 positive, 1 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
F4 · Management deep-dive — recent events, stated priorities, guidance track record
Recent 8-K events
2 material events in the last 24 months — top 2 listed below.
Stated priorities
3 priorityies extracted from earnings transcripts (as of 2026-05-08).
- 1.Reaffirm full-year guidancegrowthmixed65% progress
4/21: “The Company reaffirmed guidance for the results of operations expected for the full fiscal year ending December 26, 2026.”
Why this status
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Revenue guidance reaffirmed at $1.11B to $1.17B for 2026. Despite an earnings miss in 2026-Q1, management maintains confidence in achieving full-year targets, indicating persistent focus but limited substantive delivery so far.
- 2.Maintain operating margin ratecostbehind0% progress
4/21: “Operating Margin Rate ‘ 9.3% to 9.6%”
Why this status
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Operating margin guidance set at 9.3% to 9.6% for 2026. Despite the focus, the operating income decreased from $318M in 2024-Q4 to $297M in 2025-Q4, indicating limited progress in maintaining margins.
- 3.Plan capital expenditurescapital allocationmixed30% progressprovisional
1/29: “Capital Expenditures, Net of Sale Leaseback Proceeds ‘ $675 million to $725 million”
Why this status
Newly stated in 2026-Q1. Capex guidance set at $675M to $725M for 2026. The focus on capital allocation is clear, but with cash from operations fluctuating significantly, the ability to meet this target remains uncertain.
Guidance track record
Insufficient guidance history for this ticker.
Position context
— how violent might the path be while I hold it?Why this risk level
Recent vol — 30d annualized 47%; 252d 30%.
Drawdown — Max 1y −51%. Bad day move −3%.
Beta to sector ETF (XLY) — 0.04 over 1y.
Liquidity — score 100/100.
Sub-scores — vol 50/100, drawdown 0/100, beta 4/100, earnings vol —.
via XLY
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive — historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only — describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-05-08.
What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-05-08
Management scorecard
How management runs the business — capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What management is focused on
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
- #1
Reaffirm full-year guidance
GrowthNew since 2026-05-04Maintain confidence in achieving the full-year financial targets despite recent challenges.
On track →MixedStated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Revenue guidance reaffirmed at $1.11B to $1.17B for 2026. Despite an earnings miss in 2026-Q1, management maintains confidence in achieving full-year targets, indicating persistent focus but limited substantive delivery so far.
65%CEO/CFO:“The Company reaffirmed guidance for the results of operations expected for the full fiscal year ending December 26, 2026.”Press releaseSource dated 2026-04-21Stated 2 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04Show history (2)
- 2026-Q1Press release
“The Company reaffirmed guidance for the results of operations expected for the full fiscal year ending December 26, 2026.”
- 2025-Q4Multiple sources
“Tractor Supply is updating its guidance for fiscal year 2025...”
- #2
Maintain operating margin rate
CostNew since 2026-05-04Focus on sustaining the operating margin rate within the guided range.
BehindStated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Operating margin guidance set at 9.3% to 9.6% for 2026. Despite the focus, the operating income decreased from $318M in 2024-Q4 to $297M in 2025-Q4, indicating limited progress in maintaining margins.
0%CEO/CFO:“Operating Margin Rate ‘ 9.3% to 9.6%”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-04-21Stated 2 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04Show history (2)
- 2026-Q1Multiple sources
“Operating Margin Rate ‘ 9.3% to 9.6%”
- 2025-Q4Multiple sources
“Operating Margin Rate 9.5% to 9.9%”
- #3
Plan capital expenditures
Capital allocationNew since 2026-05-04Allocate capital expenditures effectively within the guided range.
Behind →MixedNewly stated in 2026-Q1. Capex guidance set at $675M to $725M for 2026. The focus on capital allocation is clear, but with cash from operations fluctuating significantly, the ability to meet this target remains uncertain.
30%CEO/CFO:“Capital Expenditures, Net of Sale Leaseback Proceeds ‘ $675 million to $725 million”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-01-29Stated 1 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04provisionalShow history (1)
- 2026-Q1Multiple sources
“Capital Expenditures, Net of Sale Leaseback Proceeds ‘ $675 million to $725 million”
How this stock is priced
Two ways to read price: against peers in the same business, and against the company's own history.
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
P/E over the last 5 years
71 monthly pointsHow this compares
A side-by-side read on composite, valuation, and risk versus peers.
| Stock | Composite | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
TSCO Tractor Supply | +6.0 | inexpensive | elevated |
AMZN Amazon | +16 | full | moderate |
TSLA Tesla, Inc. | +0.4 | expensive | elevated |
HD Home Depot (The) | +14 | full | moderate |
CVNA Carvana | +14 | — | high |
Risk — how this stock moves
What a normal day looks like, what a bad day looks like, and the worst the last year has thrown at it.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios — if X happens, the score would shift by about Y points. These are not predictions.
- If consumer_discretionary sector trend rises from +0.10 into 'improving' (>= +0.20)+5.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is raised (currently REAFFIRMED as of 2026-04-21)+4.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is cut (currently REAFFIRMED as of 2026-04-21)-8.0 pts
- If consumer_discretionary sector trend falls from +0.10 into 'weakening' (<= -0.20)-5.0 pts
- If growth state reverses from +0.25 (positive) to -0.25 (negative)-4.0 pts
Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-04-2117d agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 21, 2026, Tractor Supply Company (the "Company") issued a press release reporting its results of operations for the first quarter ended March 28, 2026. Additionally, the Company reaffirmed guidance for the results of operations expected for the full fiscal year ending December 26, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1.
earnings preannouncementnegativescore 53 - 2026-02-112mo agoItem 5.02
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On February 10, 2026, the Board of Directors of Tractor Supply Company (the "Company") appointed Sonia Syngal as an independent member of its Board of Directors, effective immediately. Ms. Syngal's initial term will expire on the date of the Company's 2026 Annual Meeting of Shareholders. Ms. Syngal qualifies as an independent director within the me…
executive changeneutralscore 8 - 2026-02-112mo agoItem 8.01
Other Events. On February 11, 2026, the Company issued the press release furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1 announcing both the appointment of Ms. Syngal as a director and the Company's declaration of a cash dividend of $0.24 per share of outstanding common stock payable March 10, 2026, to stockholders of record as of the close of business on February 24, 2026.
capital allocationneutralscore 7 - 2026-01-293mo agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On January 29, 2026 , Tractor Supply Company (the "Company") issued a press release reporting its results of operations for the fourth quarter and fiscal year ended December 27, 2025. Additionally, the Company provided guidance for the results of operations expected for the full fiscal year ending December 26, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1.
earnings preannouncementneutralscore 7
Score history
The composite score, snapshot by snapshot. The dotted line at zero separates leaning-positive from leaning-negative.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.