TXN
Texas InstrumentsNASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-05-08
As of May 8, 2026, TXN has a composite score of 23.1 and a signal label of "mild favorable." This score is driven by high confidence in guidance credibility at 100.0, but it faces elevated market risk with a score of 59.4. Key drivers include macroeconomic factors such as rates, growth, inflation, and labor.
Price
Daily closes from AlphaVantage. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Factor signals
Read top-to-bottom: thesis (is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold), watch flags (has something changed worth re-reading), and position context (how violent might the path be). Each pill is a parallel diagnostic — never aggregated into a single score.
Thesis
— is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold?Why this rank
- Direction share1.00
- Slope (norm)0.03
- Bonus0.00
Why this rank
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
Why this rank
Watch
— has something changed worth re-reading?Why this setup
EPS estimate $1.56 → $1.92 (+22.8% / 30d). 22 raised, 0 cut, 27 covering analysts.
4 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 15 maintained. 43% of analysts rate Buy.
12 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 12.4% above current price.
1 positive, 0 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
F4 · Management deep-dive — recent events, stated priorities, guidance track record
Recent 8-K events
2 material events in the last 24 months — top 2 listed below.
Stated priorities
3 priorityies extracted from earnings transcripts (as of 2026-05-08).
- 1.Achieve operational synergiescostmixed65% progressprovisional
2/4: “The transaction is expected to generate ~$450 million of annual manufacturing and operational synergies within three years post-close.”
Why this status
Newly stated in 2026-Q1. Management expects to achieve $450 million of annual manufacturing and operational synergies within three years post-acquisition. Financials do not yet reflect these synergies, indicating limited progress so far.
- 2.Increase revenue in Q2 2026growthmixed65% progress
4/22: “TI's second quarter outlook is for revenue in the range of $5.00 billion to $5.40 billion.”
Why this status
Newly stated in 2026-Q1. Management has set a revenue target for Q2 2026 between $5.00 billion and $5.40 billion. Q1 2026 revenue was $4.825 billion, indicating a need for growth to meet the guidance.
- 3.Enhance EPS in Q2 2026growthmixed65% progress
4/22: “Earnings per share between $1.77 and $2.05.”
Why this status
Newly stated in 2026-Q1. Management has set an EPS target for Q2 2026 between $1.77 and $2.05. Q1 2026 EPS was $1.68, indicating a need for improvement to meet the guidance.
Guidance track record
Last 8 quarters of EPS guidance with actuals.
Per-quarter detail
| Period | Guidance | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-06-30 | $1.05 – $1.25 | $1.22 | inside |
| 2024-09-30 | $1.24 – $1.48 | $1.47 | inside |
| 2024-12-31 | $1.07 – $1.29 | $1.30 | beat |
| 2025-03-31 | $0.94 – $1.16 | $1.28 | beat |
| 2025-06-30 | $1.21 – $1.47 | $1.41 | inside |
| 2025-09-30 | $1.36 – $1.60 | $1.57 | inside |
| 2025-12-31 | $1.13 – $1.39 | $1.31 | inside |
| 2026-03-31 | $1.22 – $1.48 | $1.71 | beat |
Beat / inside / miss is computed from the guided range when issued; for point-estimate quarters a ±5% tolerance band around the mid is used. surprise_pct_vs_mid is unstable when guided EPS is near zero, so it is not surfaced as a headline.
Position context
— how violent might the path be while I hold it?Why this risk level
Recent vol — 30d annualized 59%; 252d 39%.
Drawdown — Max 1y −30%. Bad day move −3%.
Beta to sector ETF (XLK) — 0.03 over 1y.
Liquidity — score 100/100.
Sub-scores — vol 36/100, drawdown 41/100, beta 3/100, earnings vol —.
via XLK
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive — historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only — describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-05-08.
What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-05-08
Management scorecard
How management runs the business — capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Met or beat guidance 100% of the last 8 guided quarters · 11.0% avg surprise
What management is focused on
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
- #1
Achieve operational synergies
CostNew since 2026-05-04Focus on achieving $450 million of annual manufacturing and operational synergies within three years post-acquisition.
MixedNewly stated in 2026-Q1. Management expects to achieve $450 million of annual manufacturing and operational synergies within three years post-acquisition. Financials do not yet reflect these synergies, indicating limited progress so far.
65%CEO/CFO:“The transaction is expected to generate ~$450 million of annual manufacturing and operational synergies within three years post-close.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-02-04Stated 1 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04provisionalShow history (1)
- 2026-Q1Multiple sources
“The transaction is expected to generate ~$450 million of annual manufacturing and operational synergies within three years post-close.”
- #2
Increase revenue in Q2 2026
GrowthNew since 2026-05-04Target revenue growth in Q2 2026 with guidance set between $5.00 billion and $5.40 billion.
Behind →MixedNewly stated in 2026-Q1. Management has set a revenue target for Q2 2026 between $5.00 billion and $5.40 billion. Q1 2026 revenue was $4.825 billion, indicating a need for growth to meet the guidance.
65%CEO/CFO:“TI's second quarter outlook is for revenue in the range of $5.00 billion to $5.40 billion.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-04-22Stated 1 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04Show history (1)
- 2026-Q1Multiple sources
“TI's second quarter outlook is for revenue in the range of $5.00 billion to $5.40 billion.”
- #3
Enhance EPS in Q2 2026
GrowthNew since 2026-05-04Aim to enhance EPS in Q2 2026 with guidance set between $1.77 and $2.05.
Behind →MixedNewly stated in 2026-Q1. Management has set an EPS target for Q2 2026 between $1.77 and $2.05. Q1 2026 EPS was $1.68, indicating a need for improvement to meet the guidance.
65%CEO/CFO:“Earnings per share between $1.77 and $2.05.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-04-22Stated 1 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04Show history (1)
- 2026-Q1Multiple sources
“Earnings per share between $1.77 and $2.05.”
How this stock is priced
Two ways to read price: against peers in the same business, and against the company's own history.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
P/E over the last 5 years
71 monthly pointsHow this compares
A side-by-side read on composite, valuation, and risk versus peers.
| Stock | Composite | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
TXN Texas Instruments | +23 | expensive | elevated |
NVDA NVIDIA Corporation | +20 | full | moderate |
AAPL Apple Inc | +19 | full | moderate |
MSFT Microsoft | +27 | fair | elevated |
AVGO Broadcom | +11 | expensive | elevated |
Risk — how this stock moves
What a normal day looks like, what a bad day looks like, and the worst the last year has thrown at it.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios — if X happens, the score would shift by about Y points. These are not predictions.
- If information_technology sector trend rises from +0.08 into 'improving' (>= +0.20)+5.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is raised (currently NEW as of 2026-04-22)+4.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is cut (currently NEW as of 2026-04-22)-8.0 pts
- If rates state reverses from -0.37 (negative) to +0.37 (positive)-7.3 pts
- If information_technology sector trend falls from +0.08 into 'weakening' (<= -0.20)-5.0 pts
Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-04-2216d agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition The Registrant’s news release dated April 22, 2026, regarding its first-quarter results of operations and financial condition is attached hereto as Exhibit 99. The attached news release includes references to the following financial measures that were not prepared in accordance with generally accepted accounting principles in the United States (non-GAAP measures): free cash flow and ratios based on free cash flow. The company believes these non-GA…
earnings preannouncementpositivescore 50 - 2026-03-251mo agoItem 5.02
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. Hagop Kozanian, Senior Vice President of Texas Instruments Incorporated, has announced his intention to retire effective August 31, 2026. SIGNATURES Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, the Registrant has duly caused this report to be signed on its behalf by the undersigned hereunto duly authorized. TEXAS INSTRUMENTS…
executive changeneutralscore 20 - 2026-02-043mo agoItem 7.01
Other Events On February 4, 2026, Texas Instruments Incorporated (“Texas Instruments”) and Silicon Laboratories Inc. (“Silicon Labs”) issued a joint press release announcing the entry into a definitive agreement under which Texas Instruments will acquire Silicon Labs. The press release also announced that Texas Instruments will hold a webcast to discuss the transaction and answer questions. A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated by reference herein.…
mna activitypositivescore 6
Score history
The composite score, snapshot by snapshot. The dotted line at zero separates leaning-positive from leaning-negative.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.