UAL
United Airlines HoldingsNASDAQIndustrialsAirlinesSnapshot 2026-05-08
As of May 8, 2026, UAL has a composite score of 12.8 and a signal label of "mild favorable." This score is influenced by various factors, including a macro score of 30.0 and a momentum score of -19.5, indicating some weaknesses in momentum despite an inexpensive valuation score of 85.8. The analysis is provisional, reflecting current uncertainties in guidance and sector trends.
Price
Daily closes from AlphaVantage. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Factor signals
Read top-to-bottom: thesis (is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold), watch flags (has something changed worth re-reading), and position context (how violent might the path be). Each pill is a parallel diagnostic — never aggregated into a single score.
Thesis
— is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold?Why this rank
- Direction share1.00
- Slope (norm)0.52
- Bonus0.00
Why this rank
Trailing four: 2024-Q3, 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3
Why this rank
Joint read: strong + robust historically delivered 80%+ NI-grew rate over T+1y in IT 2024–26 (small N).
Watch
— has something changed worth re-reading?Why this setup
EPS estimate $3.69 → $1.78 (-51.8% / 30d). 1 raised, 17 cut, 21 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 2 maintained. 92% of analysts rate Buy.
4 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 40.5% above current price.
1 positive, 0 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
F4 · Management deep-dive — recent events, stated priorities, guidance track record
Recent 8-K events
11 material events in the last 24 months — top 5 listed below.
- 2026-02-06UAL — share buyback announcedimpact 0.31
- 2026-02-02UAL — share buyback announcedimpact 0.31
- 2026-02-06UAL — capital allocation — Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligationimpact 0.24
- 2026-02-02UAL — capital allocation — Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligationimpact 0.24
- 2025-05-28UAL — officer changeimpact 0.22
Stated priorities
3 priorityies extracted from earnings transcripts (as of 2026-05-08).
- 1.Achieve resilient earnings despite macro challengesgrowthwatchprovisional
4/15: “United expects resilient earnings in Q2 and full-year 2025 despite uncertain macroeconomic environment.”
Why this status
Newly stated in 2025-Q2. Despite the challenging macroeconomic environment, United Airlines has focused on achieving resilient earnings. However, the financials show a decline in revenue from $15.2B in 2025-Q2 to $14.1B in 2025-Q4, indicating limited progress in maintaining earnings resilience.
- 2.Generate similar level of free cash flow in 2026capital allocationmixed44% progressprovisional
1/20: “United expects to generate a similar level of free cash flow in 2026.”
Why this status
Newly stated in 2026-Q1. United Airlines aims to maintain a similar level of free cash flow in 2026. However, cash from operating activities was negative $6.5B in 2025-Q4, indicating challenges in achieving this goal. The trajectory shows limited progress towards this priority.
- 3.Remove 4 points of scheduled domestic capacitysupply chainwatchprovisional
4/15: “United is removing 4 points of scheduled domestic capacity starting in the third quarter 2025.”
Why this status
Newly stated in 2025-Q2. United Airlines planned to reduce domestic capacity by 4 points starting in Q3 2025. The financials do not provide specific capacity metrics, making it difficult to assess the progress of this initiative. The trajectory remains unclear without further data.
Guidance track record
Insufficient guidance history for this ticker.
Position context
— how violent might the path be while I hold it?Why this risk level
Recent vol — 30d annualized 56%; 252d 48%.
Drawdown — Max 1y −28%. Bad day move −5%.
Beta to sector ETF (XLI) — 1.77 over 1y.
Liquidity — score 100/100.
Sub-scores — vol 20/100, drawdown 45/100, beta 23/100, earnings vol —.
via XLI
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive — historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only — describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-05-08.
What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-05-08
Management scorecard
How management runs the business — capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Met or beat guidance 67% of the last 3 guided quarters · 77.5% avg surprise
What management is focused on
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
- #1
Achieve resilient earnings despite macro challenges
GrowthFocus on maintaining resilient earnings in 2025 despite macroeconomic uncertainties.
WatchNewly stated in 2025-Q2. Despite the challenging macroeconomic environment, United Airlines has focused on achieving resilient earnings. However, the financials show a decline in revenue from $15.2B in 2025-Q2 to $14.1B in 2025-Q4, indicating limited progress in maintaining earnings resilience.
No scoreCEO/CFO:“United expects resilient earnings in Q2 and full-year 2025 despite uncertain macroeconomic environment.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2025-04-15Stated 1 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2025-04-15provisionalShow history (1)
- 2025-Q2Multiple sources
“United expects resilient earnings in Q2 and full-year 2025 despite uncertain macroeconomic environment.”
- #2
Generate similar level of free cash flow in 2026
Capital allocationAim to generate a similar level of free cash flow in 2026 as in previous years.
MixedNewly stated in 2026-Q1. United Airlines aims to maintain a similar level of free cash flow in 2026. However, cash from operating activities was negative $6.5B in 2025-Q4, indicating challenges in achieving this goal. The trajectory shows limited progress towards this priority.
44%CEO/CFO:“United expects to generate a similar level of free cash flow in 2026.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-01-20Stated 1 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-01-20provisionalShow history (1)
- 2026-Q1Multiple sources
“United expects to generate a similar level of free cash flow in 2026.”
- #3
Remove 4 points of scheduled domestic capacity
Supply chainPlan to remove 4 points of scheduled domestic capacity starting in Q3 2025.
WatchNewly stated in 2025-Q2. United Airlines planned to reduce domestic capacity by 4 points starting in Q3 2025. The financials do not provide specific capacity metrics, making it difficult to assess the progress of this initiative. The trajectory remains unclear without further data.
No scoreCEO/CFO:“United is removing 4 points of scheduled domestic capacity starting in the third quarter 2025.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2025-04-15Stated 1 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2025-04-15provisionalShow history (1)
- 2025-Q2Multiple sources
“United is removing 4 points of scheduled domestic capacity starting in the third quarter 2025.”
How this stock is priced
Two ways to read price: against peers in the same business, and against the company's own history.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Around its own typical valuation.
P/E over the last 5 years
38 monthly pointsHow this compares
A side-by-side read on composite, valuation, and risk versus peers.
| Stock | Composite | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
UAL United Airlines Holdings | +13 | inexpensive | elevated |
CAT Caterpillar Inc. | +13 | expensive | moderate |
GE GE Aerospace | +11 | expensive | moderate |
GEV GE Vernova | +10 | full | moderate |
RTX RTX Corporation | +20 | fair | moderate |
Risk — how this stock moves
What a normal day looks like, what a bad day looks like, and the worst the last year has thrown at it.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios — if X happens, the score would shift by about Y points. These are not predictions.
- If industrials sector trend rises from +0.05 into 'improving' (>= +0.20)+5.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is raised (currently NEW as of 2026-04-21)+4.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is cut (currently NEW as of 2026-04-21)-8.0 pts
- If industrials sector trend falls from +0.05 into 'weakening' (<= -0.20)-5.0 pts
- If growth state reverses from +0.25 (positive) to -0.25 (negative)-4.0 pts
Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-04-2117d agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 21, 2026, United Airlines Holdings, Inc. ("UAL"), the holding company whose subsidiary is United Airlines, Inc. ("United," and together with UAL, the "Company"), issued a press release (the "Earnings Press Release") announcing the financial results of the Company for the first quarter of 2026. A copy of the Earnings Press Release is furnished pursuant to this
earnings preannouncementpositivescore 49 - 2026-02-063mo agoItem 1.01
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On February 6, 2026, United Airlines Holdings, Inc. (formerly known as United Continental Holdings, Inc., “UAL”) issued in a public offering $1,000,000,000 principal amount of its 4.875% Senior Notes due 2029 (the “Notes”), which are guaranteed (the “Guarantee”) by UAL’s wholly-owned subsidiary United Airlines, Inc. (“United”). The Notes and Guarantee were issued pursuant to an Indenture, dated as of May 7, 2013 (the “Base Indenture”), among UAL, Un…
capital allocationpositivescore 8 - 2026-02-023mo agoItem 1.01
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On February 2, 2026, United Airlines Holdings, Inc. (formerly known as United Continental Holdings, Inc., “UAL”) issued in a public offering $1,000,000,000 principal amount of its 5.375% Senior Notes due 2031 (the “Notes”), which are guaranteed (the “Guarantee”) by UAL’s wholly-owned subsidiary United Airlines, Inc. (“United”). The Notes and Guarantee were issued pursuant to an Indenture, dated as of May 7, 2013 (the “Base Indenture”), among UAL, Un…
capital allocationpositivescore 7 - 2026-02-063mo agoItem 2.03
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant. The information described under
capital allocationnegativescore 6 - 2026-02-023mo agoItem 2.03
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant. The information described under
capital allocationnegativescore 6
Score history
The composite score, snapshot by snapshot. The dotted line at zero separates leaning-positive from leaning-negative.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.