Ultra Clean Holdings, Inc. (UCTT)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$72.43+8.77%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · UCTT
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 11.5% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 54.1% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 42.6 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 71 industry peers
UCTT — CFO transition
Dated 2026-08-06
Chief Financial Officer — Sheri Savage: Ms. Savage retired and was succeeded by Michael Keogh as Chief Financial Officer.
Why it matters: Improving gross margin signals better cost control and pricing power.
Supportive ifQ3 gross margin reported above 16.1%.
Worry ifQ3 gross margin reported below 16.1%.
Why it matters: Positive cash flow is crucial for funding operations and growth. It reflects financial health.
Supportive ifOperational cash flow is positive now. This is a change from -$33.3 million.
Worry ifOperational cash flow is still negative. This shows ongoing financial strain.
Why it matters: Steady high revenue growth shows strong demand. This is important for the semiconductor industry.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue growth reported above 25% year over year.
Worry ifQ3 revenue growth reported below 25% year over year.
Why it matters: Net income trends show if the company is getting closer to making money.
Watch forNet income is getting better, moving toward breakeven or profit.
Also watch forNet income remains negative or worsens compared to Q1 2026.
Why it matters: Details on the $400M stock sale will show how they use capital. Clear plans show good management.
Watch forClear communication on how the funds will be used to support growth.
Also watch forLack of clarity or negative market reaction to the debt issuance.
Why it matters: Falling below the guidance range would signal weaker demand and growth prospects.
Worry ifQ2 revenue reported below $565 million.
Less concerning ifQ2 revenue reported above $605 million.
Why it matters: Better cash flow shows stronger financial health. It also means the company operates more efficiently.
Supportive ifPositive cash flow from operations reported in Q2.
Worry ifNegative cash flow from operations reported in Q2.
Why it matters: This strategy is key to long-term growth and financial stability for UCT.
Supportive ifManagement says they are making more money and working better.
Worry ifNo clear progress or issues in the UCT 3.0 strategy.
Why it matters: Keogh's leadership may improve financial performance and help UCT 3.0.
Watch forKeogh's leadership has led to good financial results and plans.
Also watch forThere have been no big improvements or bad results since Keogh was appointed.
Why it matters: Higher operating income shows better cost control. It means the company runs its operations well.
Supportive ifOperating income was over $29.5 million in Q3.
Worry ifOperating income was below $29.5 million in Q3.
Why it matters: Meeting or exceeding this revenue target shows strong demand and execution on growth plans.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue reported at $700 million or more.
Worry ifQ3 revenue reported below $700 million.
Why it matters: Michael Keogh's leadership may improve financial discipline. It could also help growth.
Supportive ifA press release shows better capital allocation after the CFO change.
Worry ifNet income is still negative. There are no clear signs of better capital use.
Why it matters: A smaller net loss shows better financial health. It also means better operations.
Supportive ifNet loss reported less than $(17.9) million in Q2.
Worry ifNet loss reported greater than $(17.9) million in Q2.
Why it matters: The new CFO will shape UCT's financial strategy. This is critical after Sheri Savage's retirement.
Watch forA new CFO was announced. They have experience in the semiconductor industry.
Also watch forNo announcement of a new CFO within the next few months, causing uncertainty.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$436 on $10,000 · ±4.4% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $889 loss on $10,000 · 8.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,434 loss on $10,000 · 54.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.