Frontier Group Holdings, Inc. (ULCC)
NASDAQIndustrialsAirlines, Airports & Air ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$7.09+9.58%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsAirlines, Airports & Air ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ULCC
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -41.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 15.3% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 56.5 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 8 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
ULCC — strategy / product update — Costs Associated with Exit or Disposal Activities
Dated 2026-08-31
Costs Associated with Exit or Disposal Activities. On August 25, 2026, Frontier Airlines, Inc. (“Frontier”), a wholly owned subsidiary of Frontier Group Holdings, Inc. (the “Company”), entered into an agreement with lessors of 13 A320neo aircraft currently in operation to terminate the leases associated with such aircraft that were otherwise scheduled to expire in the next six to seven years (the “Early Return Agreement”). These 13 aircraft are scheduled to be returned during the second half…
Why it matters: Frontier tied its profit outlook to strong travel demand and higher fares per seat. Q3 RASM rose 30% year over year.
Supportive ifQ4 2026 RASM rises more than 20% year over year, as guided.
Worry ifQ4 2026 RASM rises 20% or less year over year.
Why it matters: Adjusted costs excluding fuel were 7.40 cents per seat mile in Q3. Higher costs could weaken the gains from stronger fares.
Worry ifQ4 adjusted cost per seat mile, excluding fuel and adjusted for stage length, is above 7.40 cents.
Less concerning ifQ4 adjusted cost per seat mile, excluding fuel and adjusted for stage length, is at or below 7.40 cents.
Why it matters: Frontier returned 13 A320neo planes early and plans to replace that capacity with 10 A321neo planes. Delays could disrupt its fleet plan.
Watch forAll 10 direct-lease A321neo planes arrive by Q1 2027, with five due in Q4 and five in Q1.
Also watch forOne or more of the 10 direct-lease A321neo planes arrive after Q1 2027.
Why it matters: Q3 adjusted EPS was $0.18, even with higher fuel costs. Q4 guidance still spans a loss to a small profit.
Watch forQ4 adjusted diluted EPS is above $0.05, beating the top of the guided range.
Also watch forQ4 adjusted diluted EPS is below negative $0.15, worse than the bottom of the guided range.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$299 on $10,000 · ±3.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $722 loss on $10,000 · 7.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,245 loss on $10,000 · 52.4% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Fuel cost was $3.96 per gallon in Q3. The Q4 plan uses $4.75, which can pressure profit if fares do not keep pace.
Worry ifQ4 average fuel cost is above $4.75 per gallon and adjusted EPS is below negative $0.15.
Less concerning ifQ4 average fuel cost is at or below $4.75 per gallon and adjusted EPS is at least negative $0.15.