UNP
Union Pacific CorporationNYSEIndustrialsRailroadsSnapshot 2026-05-08
As of May 8, 2026, UNP has a composite score of 23.6 and is labeled as "mild favorable." This score is influenced by a medium confidence level of 73.7 and a low risk label of 24.3. Key drivers include macroeconomic factors such as growth, labor, rates, and inflation. The analysis is provisional, reflecting the potential for changes based on future guidance and sector trends.
Price
Daily closes from AlphaVantage. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Factor signals
Read top-to-bottom: thesis (is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold), watch flags (has something changed worth re-reading), and position context (how violent might the path be). Each pill is a parallel diagnostic — never aggregated into a single score.
Thesis
— is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold?Why this rank
- Direction share1.00
- Slope (norm)-0.01
- Bonus0.00
Why this rank
Trailing four: 2024-Q3, 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3
Why this rank
Watch
— has something changed worth re-reading?Why this setup
EPS estimate $3.15 → $3.13 (-0.7% / 30d). 7 raised, 12 cut, 21 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 10 maintained. 67% of analysts rate Buy.
7 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 8.3% above current price.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
F4 · Management deep-dive — recent events, stated priorities, guidance track record
Recent 8-K events
5 material events in the last 24 months — top 5 listed below.
Stated priorities
3 priorityies extracted from earnings transcripts (as of 2026-05-08).
- 1.Achieve EPS growth targetsgrowthbehind0% progress
4/23: “Earnings per share growth of mid-single digit; consistent with attaining 3-year CAGR target.”
Why this status
Stated in 5 of last 5 quarters. Despite consistent affirmation of EPS growth targets, financials show net income declined from $1.78B in 2025-Q3 to $1.44B in 2025-Q4, indicating limited progress towards the stated EPS growth trajectory.
- 2.Meet customer demand with strong servicegrowthbehind0% progress
4/23: “2026 Outlook Affirmed: Meeting customer demand with strong service; muted economic forecast.”
Why this status
Newly stated in 2026-Q1. While management emphasizes meeting customer demand with strong service, revenue decreased from $6.24B in 2025-Q3 to $5.82B in 2025-Q4, suggesting challenges in achieving this priority amid a muted economic forecast.
- 3.Pricing in excess of inflationcostbehind4% progress
4/23: “Pricing dollars in excess of inflation dollars.”
Why this status
Newly stated in 2026-Q1. Management aims to maintain pricing above inflation, yet operating income fell from $2.55B in 2025-Q3 to $2.27B in 2025-Q4, indicating limited progress in achieving this pricing strategy.
Guidance track record
Insufficient guidance history for this ticker.
Position context
— how violent might the path be while I hold it?Why this risk level
Recent vol — 30d annualized 28%; 252d 21%.
Drawdown — Max 1y −12%. Bad day move −2%.
Beta to sector ETF (XLI) — 0.75 over 1y.
Liquidity — score 100/100.
Sub-scores — vol 64/100, drawdown 75/100, beta 75/100, earnings vol —.
via XLI
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive — historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only — describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-05-08.
What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-05-08
Management scorecard
How management runs the business — capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What management is focused on
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
- #1
Achieve EPS growth targets
GrowthNew since 2026-05-04Focus on achieving earnings per share growth consistent with the 3-year CAGR target of high-single to low-double digit.
BehindStated in 5 of last 5 quarters. Despite consistent affirmation of EPS growth targets, financials show net income declined from $1.78B in 2025-Q3 to $1.44B in 2025-Q4, indicating limited progress towards the stated EPS growth trajectory.
0%CEO/CFO:“Earnings per share growth of mid-single digit; consistent with attaining 3-year CAGR target.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-04-23Stated 5 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04Show history (5)
- 2026-Q1Multiple sources
“Earnings per share growth of mid-single digit; consistent with attaining 3-year CAGR target.”
- 2025-Q4Multiple sources
“Earnings per share growth consistent with attaining the 3-year CAGR target.”
- 2025-Q3Multiple sources
“Earnings per share growth consistent with attaining the 3-year CAGR target.”
- 2025-Q2Multiple sources
“Affirming 2025 Outlook: Earnings per share growth consistent with attaining the 3-year CAGR target.”
- 2025-Q1Multiple sources
“Affirming 2025 Outlook: Earnings per share growth consistent with attaining the 3-year CAGR target.”
- #2
Meet customer demand with strong service
GrowthNew since 2026-05-04Ensure strong service to meet customer demand despite a muted economic forecast.
BehindNewly stated in 2026-Q1. While management emphasizes meeting customer demand with strong service, revenue decreased from $6.24B in 2025-Q3 to $5.82B in 2025-Q4, suggesting challenges in achieving this priority amid a muted economic forecast.
0%CEO/CFO:“2026 Outlook Affirmed: Meeting customer demand with strong service; muted economic forecast.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-04-23Stated 1 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04Show history (1)
- 2026-Q1Multiple sources
“2026 Outlook Affirmed: Meeting customer demand with strong service; muted economic forecast.”
- #3
Pricing in excess of inflation
CostNew since 2026-05-04Maintain pricing strategies that exceed inflationary pressures.
BehindNewly stated in 2026-Q1. Management aims to maintain pricing above inflation, yet operating income fell from $2.55B in 2025-Q3 to $2.27B in 2025-Q4, indicating limited progress in achieving this pricing strategy.
4%CEO/CFO:“Pricing dollars in excess of inflation dollars.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-04-23Stated 1 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04Show history (1)
- 2026-Q1Multiple sources
“Pricing dollars in excess of inflation dollars.”
How this stock is priced
Two ways to read price: against peers in the same business, and against the company's own history.
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
P/E over the last 5 years
71 monthly pointsHow this compares
A side-by-side read on composite, valuation, and risk versus peers.
| Stock | Composite | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
UNP Union Pacific Corporation | +24 | fair | low |
CAT Caterpillar Inc. | +13 | expensive | moderate |
GE GE Aerospace | +11 | expensive | moderate |
GEV GE Vernova | +10 | full | moderate |
RTX RTX Corporation | +20 | fair | moderate |
Risk — how this stock moves
What a normal day looks like, what a bad day looks like, and the worst the last year has thrown at it.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios — if X happens, the score would shift by about Y points. These are not predictions.
- If industrials sector trend rises from +0.05 into 'improving' (>= +0.20)+5.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is raised (currently NEW as of 2026-04-23)+4.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is cut (currently NEW as of 2026-04-23)-8.0 pts
- If industrials sector trend falls from +0.05 into 'weakening' (<= -0.20)-5.0 pts
- If growth state reverses from +0.25 (positive) to -0.25 (negative)-4.0 pts
Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-04-2315d agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 23, 2026, Union Pacific Corporation issued a press release announcing its financial results for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated herein by reference.
earnings preannouncementneutralscore 46 - 2026-01-273mo agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On January 27, 2026, Union Pacific Corporation issued a press release announcing its financial results for the quarter and year ended December 31, 2025. A copy of the press release is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated herein by reference.
earnings preannouncementneutralscore 6 - 2025-12-124mo agoItem 5.02
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. The Board of Directors (the Board) of Union Pacific Corporation (the Company) elected W. Anthony Will, age 60, to serve on the Board as a director of the Company, effective January 5, 2026. Mr. Will will serve on the Board’s Audit and Finance Committees. Mr. Will currently serves as President and Chief Executive Officer of CF Industries Holdings, I…
executive changeneutralscore 3 - 2025-11-066mo agoItem 8.01
Other Events. As previously disclosed, on July 28, 2025, Union Pacific Corporation, a Utah corporation (“ Union Pacific ”) entered into an Agreement and Plan of Merger (the “ Merger Agreement ”) by and among Union Pacific, Norfolk Southern Corporation, a Virginia corporation (“ Norfolk Southern ”), Ruby Merger Sub 1 Corporation, a Virginia corporation and a direct wholly owned subsidiary of Union Pacific (“ Merger Sub 1 ”) and Ruby Merger Sub 2 LLC, a Virginia limited liability company and a…
legal regulatorynegativescore 1 - 2025-09-108mo agoItem 7.01
Regulation FD Disclosure. On September 10, 2025, V. James Vena, Chief Executive Officer of Union Pacific Corporation (the Company), and Jennifer L. Hamann, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of the Company, addressed the Morgan Stanley 13th Annual Laguna Conference. Ms. Hamann provided the following third quarter 2025 commentary: • Continued network fluidity is expected to drive strong productivity. • Mix is anticipated to improve sequentially, however, volume trends will co…
capital allocationpositivescore 0
Score history
The composite score, snapshot by snapshot. The dotted line at zero separates leaning-positive from leaning-negative.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.