Upstream Bio, Inc. (UPB)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-09-04
$6.01-1.15%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · UPB
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 297.9% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| -39.2% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 337.1 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 398 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
UPB — litigation filed
Dated 2026-09-01
Other Events. On September 1, 2026, the Company announced its pivotal Phase 3 development plans for verekitug in severe asthma and chronic rhinosinusitis with nasal polyps (“CRSwNP”). The Company plans to execute Phase 3 programs evaluating: • A single high-dose subcutaneous regimen of 400mg administered every 12 weeks; • A single placebo-controlled study in each indication enrolling a total of approximately 1,500 patients across both trials; • Broad study populations without restriction base…
Why it matters: These meetings are important for planning the Phase 3 steps for verekitug. Good results could help the drug's timeline.
Supportive ifFDA meetings occur as planned and yield positive feedback on Phase 3 plans.
Worry ifMeetings are delayed or yield negative feedback that complicates Phase 3 plans.
Why it matters: Keeping cash reserves is important for paying for trials and operations.
Worry ifCash reserves are over $250 million. This is enough to fund operations through 2027.
Less concerning ifCash reserves drop under $250 million. There may also be unexpected funding issues.
Why it matters: The presentation will share new data from the Phase 2 VALIANT trial. Good results could help confidence in verekitug.
Watch forPositive results from the Phase 2 VALIANT trial presented at the ERS Congress in September.
Also watch forThe Phase 2 VALIANT trial showed bad results. It had no important findings.
Why it matters: New data at this event could show that verekitug works well and is safe.
Watch forPositive news or data will be shared at the ERS Congress in early September.
Also watch forNo important news or bad data will be shared at the ERS Congress.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$215 on $10,000 · ±2.2% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $659 loss on $10,000 · 6.6% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $8,184 loss on $10,000 · 81.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: New data will show verekitug's clinical profile. It will also show its market potential.
Supportive ifData presented at ATS and EAACI received positive feedback. The reception was good.
Worry ifNegative feedback or lack of interest in the data presented.
Why it matters: Data from this trial will show how well verekitug works in COPD.
Watch forThe VENTURE trial showed positive results for verekitug in COPD.
Also watch forNegative or inconclusive data from the VENTURE trial.
Why it matters: Starting these trials is key for Upstream Bio's growth. It shows progress in treating severe asthma and CRSwNP.
Supportive ifPhase 3 trials for severe asthma and CRSwNP begin as planned in Q1 2027.
Worry ifTrials are delayed. They do not start on time.
Why it matters: Positive feedback from the FDA can speed up the approval process for verekitug. It is crucial for future development.
Supportive ifFDA interactions confirm alignment on Phase 3 plans for severe asthma and CRSwNP.
Worry ifFDA feedback shows concerns about the Phase 3 plans. There is a misalignment.
Why it matters: Data from this trial will inform the potential of verekitug in treating COPD. Positive results could support future trials.
Watch forThe Phase 2 VENTURE trial shows positive data. It shows the drug works for COPD.
Also watch forData shows no big safety or effectiveness problems. This slows down future development.