Upstream Bio, Inc. (UPB)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
$3.70+9.14%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · UPB
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 150.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| -43.4% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 193.7 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name operates in a high-miss-rate industry and is a smaller-cap name (higher miss base rate). A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 66 industry peers
UPB — litigation filed
Dated 2026-09-01
Other Events. On September 1, 2026, the Company announced its pivotal Phase 3 development plans for verekitug in severe asthma and chronic rhinosinusitis with nasal polyps (“CRSwNP”). The Company plans to execute Phase 3 programs evaluating: • A single high-dose subcutaneous regimen of 400mg administered every 12 weeks; • A single placebo-controlled study in each indication enrolling a total of approximately 1,500 patients across both trials; • Broad study populations without restriction base…
Why it matters: Both trials are key steps toward testing verekitug in larger groups. On-time starts would support the stated development plan.
Supportive ifBy March 31, 2027, the company reports that both Phase 3 trials have started dosing.
Worry ifThe company reports either trial will start after Q1 2027, or has not started by March 31, 2027.
Why it matters: FDA feedback can shape the trials used to seek approval. Clear support for the plans would reduce a key trial-design risk.
Supportive ifThe company reports FDA agreement with the planned 400 mg dose, 12-week schedule, and key Phase 3 endpoints.
Worry ifThe FDA asks for a new dose, schedule, or extra trial before the planned Phase 3 studies can proceed.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$229 on $10,000 · ±2.3% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $881 loss on $10,000 · 8.8% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $9,160 loss on $10,000 · 91.6% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.