United Parcel Service (UPS)
NYSEIndustrialsIntegrated Freight & LogisticsSnapshot 2026-07-07
$111.97+1.77%
Close 2026-07-07 · 1-day change
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Industries move in repeating boom-and-bust cycles. This shows where this stock’s industry sits in that cycle, stage by stage (recovery → expansion → supercycle → steady → deceleration → contraction), from its fundamentals (orders, revenue, capital spending), not the stock’s price.
A booming industry is a tailwind for the names in it; a contracting one is a headwind. Companies in the same industry tend to rise and fall together with the cycle, the way a tide lifts and lowers every boat in the harbor at once, so a large part of a stock’s swing can come from where its industry sits rather than from the company itself. It’s context for reading the company’s results, not a buy/sell call. Full explanation →
Industrials is in steady. Describes the industry's cycle state, not a call on this stock.
The stage band shows the industry’s cycle over the chart’s timeline (each color a stage); a ▼ marks a quarter its growth inflected down — amber is an unconfirmed watch, red is confirmed the next quarter. Use “Overlay cycle on chart” to tint the price chart by stage. The industry’s fundamentals, not a signal on this stock.
Management is running behind on a stated commitment.
View ThesisRevenue is contracting — down about 3% over the past year.
View GrowthMiddle-of-the-pack quality for its industry.
View QualityManagement screens strong on capital allocation, earnings delivery, margins.
View ManagementExpectations look reasonable — what the market is pricing in sits in line with or below what analysts forecast.
View ValuationModerate volatility — typically moves about 1% a day.
View RiskUPS's growth in cold logistics and air freight investments is essential to justify its current valuation. The company recently beat earnings expectations, with a 4.9% surprise in Q1 FY2026, while maintaining a revenue target of $89.7 billion. It trades at 16× P/E, significantly below the 32× peer median, indicating that the market reflects less growth than anticipated. A specific risk is the potential for UPS to cut guidance on the next call, which our model puts at a 19% probability of a miss. Peer multiples imply a price about 6% above where it trades. This read is provisional.
Trailing returns as of 2026-07-07. UPS is total return (includes dividends); the S&P 500 benchmark is price return (the index excludes dividends).
Based on 27 analysts currently covering UPS (as of Jul 2026).
Based on 5 Wall Street analysts offering 12-month price targets for UPS in the last 4 months.
A consensus fair price across 12 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $111.97. As of 2026-07-08. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A price-focused, side-by-side fair-value read versus Air Freight & Logistics — fair value, gap to price, and forward P/E.
Investment supports operational efficiency and cost management.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
End-of-day figures as of 2026-07-07. EPS is implied from price ÷ P/E. Not investment advice.
Current $111.97
The last 12 months of price, then the range of analyst 12-month targets from today’s $111.97.
Analyst ratings and price targets are third-party Wall Street estimates, not QuarterlyIQ’s view. Not investment advice.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Below average on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
Legal implications from crash could affect operations and costs.
Advances: Plan capital expenditures of $3.0 billion
Investment supports capital expenditures and growth in logistics.
Advances: Maintain revenue target of $89.7 billion
Investment supports revenue growth from increased demand for cold logistics.
Advances: Maintain revenue target of $89.7 billion
Tariff refunds could enhance revenue growth potential.
Threatens: Maintain revenue target of $89.7 billion
Losing ground to FedEx could hinder revenue growth.
Threatens: Achieve operating margin of 9.6%
Job cuts may impact operating margin objectives.
Potential legal issues could impact operational costs and margins.