UPS
United Parcel ServiceNYSEIndustrialsIntegrated Freight & LogisticsSnapshot 2026-05-08
As of May 8, 2026, UPS has a composite score of 28.3, categorized as "mild favorable." This score is influenced by a medium confidence level of 76.0 and reflects strengths in valuation (83.3, labeled as inexpensive) and quality (69.6), while facing challenges in momentum (17.5) and sector performance (16.7). The analysis is provisional, indicating that the scores may change as new information becomes available.
Price
Daily closes from AlphaVantage. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Factor signals
Read top-to-bottom: thesis (is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold), watch flags (has something changed worth re-reading), and position context (how violent might the path be). Each pill is a parallel diagnostic — never aggregated into a single score.
Thesis
— is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold?Why this rank
- Direction share1.00
- Slope (norm)0.23
- Bonus0.00
Why this rank
Trailing four: 2024-Q3, 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3
Why this rank
Joint read: strong + robust historically delivered 80%+ NI-grew rate over T+1y in IT 2024–26 (small N).
Watch
— has something changed worth re-reading?Why this setup
EPS estimate $1.58 → $1.64 (+4.1% / 30d). 13 raised, 6 cut, 22 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 4 maintained. 45% of analysts rate Buy.
5 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 11.4% above current price.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
F4 · Management deep-dive — recent events, stated priorities, guidance track record
Recent 8-K events
1 material event in the last 24 months — top 1 listed below.
Stated priorities
3 priorityies extracted from earnings transcripts (as of 2026-05-08).
- 1.Maintain revenue target of $89.7 billiongrowthmixed65% progress
4/28: “The company reaffirms its consolidated financial targets of revenue of approximately $89.7 billion.”
Why this status
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Revenue was $26.728 billion in 2025-Q4, showing a need for significant growth to meet the $89.7 billion target for 2026. The trajectory is on track according to management's reaffirmation.
- 2.Achieve operating margin of 9.6%costmixed65% progress
4/28: “Non-GAAP adjusted operating margin of approximately 9.6%.”
Why this status
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Operating income was $3.229 billion in 2025-Q4, with a need to maintain cost discipline to achieve the 9.6% margin target for 2026. Management indicates the trajectory is on track.
- 3.Plan capital expenditures of $3.0 billioncapital allocationmixed35% progress
4/28: “Expected capital expenditures of about $3.0 billion.”
Why this status
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. The company plans $3.0 billion in capital expenditures for 2026, down from $3.5 billion in 2025. Management indicates the plan is behind schedule, requiring adjustments to meet the target.
Guidance track record
Insufficient guidance history for this ticker.
Position context
— how violent might the path be while I hold it?Why this risk level
Recent vol — 30d annualized 42%; 252d 30%.
Drawdown — Max 1y −20%. Bad day move −3%.
Beta to sector ETF (XLI) — 0.93 over 1y.
Liquidity — score 100/100.
Sub-scores — vol 50/100, drawdown 60/100, beta 93/100, earnings vol —.
via XLI
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive — historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only — describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-05-08.
What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-05-08
Management scorecard
How management runs the business — capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What management is focused on
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
- #1
Maintain revenue target of $89.7 billion
GrowthNew since 2026-05-04UPS aims to achieve a revenue target of $89.7 billion for the fiscal year 2026.
On track →MixedStated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Revenue was $26.728 billion in 2025-Q4, showing a need for significant growth to meet the $89.7 billion target for 2026. The trajectory is on track according to management's reaffirmation.
65%CEO/CFO:“The company reaffirms its consolidated financial targets of revenue of approximately $89.7 billion.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-04-28Stated 2 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04Show history (2)
- 2026-Q1Multiple sources
“For the full year 2026, on a consolidated basis, UPS expects revenue to be approximately $89.7 billion.”
- 2025-Q4Multiple sources
“The company reaffirms its consolidated financial targets of revenue of approximately $89.7 billion.”
- #2
Achieve operating margin of 9.6%
CostNew since 2026-05-04UPS targets a non-GAAP adjusted operating margin of approximately 9.6% for 2026.
On track →MixedStated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Operating income was $3.229 billion in 2025-Q4, with a need to maintain cost discipline to achieve the 9.6% margin target for 2026. Management indicates the trajectory is on track.
65%CEO/CFO:“Non-GAAP adjusted operating margin of approximately 9.6%.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-04-28Stated 2 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04Show history (2)
- 2026-Q1Multiple sources
“Non-GAAP adjusted operating margin to be approximately 9.6%.”
- 2025-Q4Multiple sources
“Non-GAAP adjusted operating margin of approximately 9.6%.”
- #3
Plan capital expenditures of $3.0 billion
Capital allocationNew since 2026-05-04UPS plans to allocate approximately $3.0 billion for capital expenditures in 2026.
Behind →MixedStated in 2 of last 2 quarters. The company plans $3.0 billion in capital expenditures for 2026, down from $3.5 billion in 2025. Management indicates the plan is behind schedule, requiring adjustments to meet the target.
35%CEO/CFO:“Expected capital expenditures of about $3.0 billion.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-04-28Stated 2 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04Show history (2)
- 2026-Q1Multiple sources
“The company is planning capital expenditures of about $3.0 billion.”
- 2025-Q4Multiple sources
“Expected capital expenditures of about $3.0 billion.”
How this stock is priced
Two ways to read price: against peers in the same business, and against the company's own history.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
P/E over the last 5 years
65 monthly pointsHow this compares
A side-by-side read on composite, valuation, and risk versus peers.
| Stock | Composite | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
UPS United Parcel Service | +28 | inexpensive | moderate |
CAT Caterpillar Inc. | +13 | expensive | moderate |
GE GE Aerospace | +11 | expensive | moderate |
GEV GE Vernova | +10 | full | moderate |
RTX RTX Corporation | +20 | fair | moderate |
Risk — how this stock moves
What a normal day looks like, what a bad day looks like, and the worst the last year has thrown at it.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios — if X happens, the score would shift by about Y points. These are not predictions.
- If industrials sector trend rises from +0.05 into 'improving' (>= +0.20)+5.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is raised (currently NEW as of 2026-04-28)+4.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is cut (currently NEW as of 2026-04-28)-8.0 pts
- If industrials sector trend falls from +0.05 into 'weakening' (<= -0.20)-5.0 pts
- If growth state reverses from +0.25 (positive) to -0.25 (negative)-4.0 pts
Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-04-2810d agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 28, 2026 , United Parcel Service, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release containing information about the Company’s results of operations and financial condition for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. The Company also posted on its website at www.investors.ups.com financial statement schedules containing additional detail about the Company's results of operations and financial condition for the same period. A copy of the press releas…
earnings preannouncementneutralscore 52 - 2026-02-063mo agoItem 5.02
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On January 30, 2026, President Donald J. Trump announced his intent to nominate Kevin M. Warsh, a member of the Board of Directors (the “Board”) of United Parcel Service, Inc. (the “Company”), to serve as Chairman of the Board of Governors of the United States Federal Reserve System, subject to confirmation by the United States Senate. On February…
executive changeneutralscore 7 - 2026-01-273mo agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On January 27, 2026 , United Parcel Service, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release containing information about the Company’s results of operations and financial condition for the quarter ended December 31, 2025. The Company also posted on its website at www.investors.ups.com financial statement schedules containing additional detail about the Company's results of operations and financial condition for the same period. A copy of the press r…
earnings preannouncementneutralscore 6
Score history
The composite score, snapshot by snapshot. The dotted line at zero separates leaning-positive from leaning-negative.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.