URI
United RentalsNYSEIndustrialsRental & Leasing ServicesSnapshot 2026-05-08
As of May 8, 2026, URI has a composite score of 20.5, categorized as "mild favorable." This score is influenced by a medium confidence level of 73.5 and reflects various macroeconomic factors, including growth and labor conditions. The sector score is lower at 16.7, indicating challenges within the industrials sector. The analysis is provisional, meaning it may be subject to change.
Price
Daily closes from AlphaVantage. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Factor signals
Read top-to-bottom: thesis (is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold), watch flags (has something changed worth re-reading), and position context (how violent might the path be). Each pill is a parallel diagnostic — never aggregated into a single score.
Thesis
— is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold?Why this rank
- Direction share1.00
- Slope (norm)0.08
- Bonus0.00
Why this rank
Trailing four: 2024-Q3, 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3
Why this rank
Joint read: strong + robust historically delivered 80%+ NI-grew rate over T+1y in IT 2024–26 (small N).
Watch
— has something changed worth re-reading?Why this setup
EPS estimate $11.50 → $11.54 (+0.3% / 30d). 7 raised, 8 cut, 18 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 7 maintained. 76% of analysts rate Buy.
7 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 9.0% above current price.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
F4 · Management deep-dive — recent events, stated priorities, guidance track record
Recent 8-K events
5 material events in the last 24 months — top 5 listed below.
- 2026-02-04URI — director transitionimpact 0.44
- 2025-12-01URI — share buyback announcedimpact 0.26
- 2026-01-28URI — share buyback announcedimpact 0.24
- 2025-12-01URI — capital allocation — Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balan…impact 0.20
- 2025-02-19URI — M&A activity — Terminationimpact 0.06
Stated priorities
3 priorityies extracted from earnings transcripts (as of 2026-05-08).
- 1.Increase full-year revenue guidancegrowthbehind0% progress
4/22: “The increases to our full-year guidance are supported by the momentum we are carrying into our busy season.”
Why this status
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Revenue guidance increased from $16.8B-$17.3B in 2025-Q4 to $16.9B-$17.4B in 2026-Q1. Despite the increase, financials show revenue of $3.688B in 2025-Q4, indicating limited progress towards the higher guidance.
- 2.Maintain strong free cash flowcapital allocationmixed35% progressprovisional
1/28: “Free cash flow excluding merger and restructuring related payments $2.15 billion to $2.45 billion.”
Why this status
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Free cash flow guidance for 2026 is set at $2.15B-$2.45B. However, cash from operating activities was negative $3.17B in 2025-Q4, indicating challenges in maintaining strong free cash flow.
- 3.Increase capital expenditurescapital allocationmixed35% progressprovisional
1/28: “Net rental capital expenditures after gross purchases $2.85 billion to $3.25 billion.”
Why this status
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Capex guidance increased from $2.55B-$2.75B in 2025-Q4 to $2.85B-$3.25B in 2026-Q1. Despite the increase, cash from operating activities was negative $3.17B in 2025-Q4, indicating limited progress in funding the higher capex.
Guidance track record
Insufficient guidance history for this ticker.
Position context
— how violent might the path be while I hold it?Why this risk level
Recent vol — 30d annualized 66%; 252d 40%.
Drawdown — Max 1y −30%. Bad day move −3%.
Beta to sector ETF (XLI) — 1.29 over 1y.
Liquidity — score 100/100.
Sub-scores — vol 33/100, drawdown 40/100, beta 71/100, earnings vol —.
via XLI
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive — historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only — describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-05-08.
What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-05-08
Management scorecard
How management runs the business — capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What management is focused on
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
- #1
Increase full-year revenue guidance
GrowthNew since 2026-05-04Management aims to increase the full-year revenue guidance for 2026.
BehindStated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Revenue guidance increased from $16.8B-$17.3B in 2025-Q4 to $16.9B-$17.4B in 2026-Q1. Despite the increase, financials show revenue of $3.688B in 2025-Q4, indicating limited progress towards the higher guidance.
0%CEO/CFO:“The increases to our full-year guidance are supported by the momentum we are carrying into our busy season.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-04-22Stated 3 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04Show history (3)
- 2026-Q1Multiple sources
“The increases to our full-year guidance are supported by the momentum we are carrying into our busy season.”
- 2025-Q4Multiple sources
“As you can see in our initial 2026 guidance, we expect another year of profitable growth with strong free cash flow.”
- 2025-Q3Multiple sources
“the company has updated its 2025 outlook, as reflected below. Current Outlook Prior Outlook Total revenue $16.0 billion to $16.2 billion $15.8 billion to $16.1 billion”
- #2
Maintain strong free cash flow
Capital allocationNew since 2026-05-04Management is focused on maintaining strong free cash flow throughout 2026.
Behind →MixedStated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Free cash flow guidance for 2026 is set at $2.15B-$2.45B. However, cash from operating activities was negative $3.17B in 2025-Q4, indicating challenges in maintaining strong free cash flow.
35%CEO/CFO:“Free cash flow excluding merger and restructuring related payments $2.15 billion to $2.45 billion.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-01-28Stated 3 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04provisionalShow history (3)
- 2026-Q1Multiple sources
“Free cash flow excluding merger and restructuring related payments $2.15 billion to $2.45 billion.”
- 2025-Q4Multiple sources
“Free cash flow excluding merger and restructuring related payments $2.1 billion to $2.3 billion.”
- 2025-Q3Multiple sources
“raised its 2025 full-year guidance for...free cash flow”
- #3
Increase capital expenditures
Capital allocationNew since 2026-05-04Management plans to increase capital expenditures for 2026.
Behind →MixedStated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Capex guidance increased from $2.55B-$2.75B in 2025-Q4 to $2.85B-$3.25B in 2026-Q1. Despite the increase, cash from operating activities was negative $3.17B in 2025-Q4, indicating limited progress in funding the higher capex.
35%CEO/CFO:“Net rental capital expenditures after gross purchases $2.85 billion to $3.25 billion.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-01-28Stated 3 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04provisionalShow history (3)
- 2026-Q1Multiple sources
“Net rental capital expenditures after gross purchases $2.85 billion to $3.25 billion.”
- 2025-Q4Multiple sources
“Net rental capital expenditures after gross purchases $2.55 billion to $2.75 billion, after gross purchases of $4.0 billion to $4.2 billion”
- 2025-Q3Multiple sources
“Net rental capital expenditures after gross purchases $2.2 billion to $2.5 billion.”
How this stock is priced
Two ways to read price: against peers in the same business, and against the company's own history.
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Around its own typical valuation.
P/E over the last 5 years
71 monthly pointsHow this compares
A side-by-side read on composite, valuation, and risk versus peers.
| Stock | Composite | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
URI United Rentals | +21 | full | moderate |
CAT Caterpillar Inc. | +13 | expensive | moderate |
GE GE Aerospace | +11 | expensive | moderate |
GEV GE Vernova | +10 | full | moderate |
RTX RTX Corporation | +20 | fair | moderate |
Risk — how this stock moves
What a normal day looks like, what a bad day looks like, and the worst the last year has thrown at it.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios — if X happens, the score would shift by about Y points. These are not predictions.
- If industrials sector trend rises from +0.05 into 'improving' (>= +0.20)+5.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is cut (currently RAISED as of 2026-04-22)-16 pts
- If industrials sector trend falls from +0.05 into 'weakening' (<= -0.20)-5.0 pts
- If growth state reverses from +0.25 (positive) to -0.25 (negative)-4.0 pts
- If labor state reverses from -0.31 (negative) to +0.31 (positive)-3.7 pts
Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-04-2216d agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 22, 2026, United Rentals, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release reporting its results of operations for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is being furnished with this report as Exhibit 99.1.
earnings preannouncementneutralscore 45 - 2026-02-043mo agoItem 5.02
Departure of Directors or Principal Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Principal Officers. Effective February 4, 2026, the Board of Directors (the "Board") of United Rentals, Inc. (the "Company") approved increasing the size of the Board from ten (10) directors to eleven (11) directors and appointed Alexander R. Taussig as an independent director of the Company to fill the vacancy. As compensation for his service on the Board, Mr. Taussig will receive (i) annual retainer fees of…
executive changeneutralscore 7 - 2026-01-283mo agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On January 28, 2026, United Rentals, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release reporting its results of operations for the quarter and year ended December 31, 2025. A copy of the press release is being furnished with this report as Exhibit 99.1.
earnings preannouncementneutralscore 7 - 2026-01-283mo agoItem 8.01
Other Events. On January 28, 2026, the Company announced a new $5.0 billion share repurchase program that does not have an established expiration date. The Company plans to begin repurchases under the new program following the planned completion of its existing $2.0 billion share repurchase program in the first quarter of 2026. The Company intends to repurchase $1.5 billion of common stock in 2026, comprised of $350 million to complete its existing share repurchase program, and $1.15 billion…
capital allocationpositivescore 5 - 2025-12-015mo agoItem 1.01
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On December 1, 2025, United Rentals (North America), Inc. (“URNA”) completed an offering of $1,500,000,000 aggregate principal amount of its 5.375% Senior Notes due 2033 (the “Notes”) in a private placement to persons reasonably believed to be qualified institutional buyers pursuant to Rule 144A under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the “Securities Act”), or outside the United States to certain persons in reliance on Regulation S under the S…
capital allocationpositivescore 2
Score history
The composite score, snapshot by snapshot. The dotted line at zero separates leaning-positive from leaning-negative.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.