USB
U.S. BancorpNYSEFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-05-08
As of May 8, 2026, USB has a composite score of 17.1 and a signal label of "mild favorable." The risk label has changed from "low" to "moderate," indicating an increase in perceived risk. Key drivers include macroeconomic factors such as rates, growth, labor, and inflation. The confidence level is medium at 76.5%.
Price
Daily closes from AlphaVantage. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Factor signals
Read top-to-bottom: thesis (is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold), watch flags (has something changed worth re-reading), and position context (how violent might the path be). Each pill is a parallel diagnostic — never aggregated into a single score.
Thesis
— is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold?Why this rank
- Direction share1.00
- Slope (norm)-0.03
- Bonus0.00
Why this rank
Trailing four: 2024-Q3, 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3
Why this rank
Watch
— has something changed worth re-reading?Why this setup
EPS estimate $1.26 → $1.26 (+0.2% / 30d). 4 raised, 2 cut, 12 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 8 maintained. 59% of analysts rate Buy.
6 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 15.3% above current price.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
F4 · Management deep-dive — recent events, stated priorities, guidance track record
Recent 8-K events
No recent events recorded.
Stated priorities
3 priorityies extracted from earnings transcripts (as of 2026-05-08).
- 1.Partnership with Amazon for Small Business Credit Cardsgrowthbehind0% progress
4/16: “Amazon announced it is transitioning its small business credit card portfolio to U.S. Bank.”
Why this status
Newly stated in 2026-Q1. The partnership with Amazon aims to expand U.S. Bancorp's small business payments offerings. While this is a new initiative, the financials do not yet reflect any impact from this partnership, as it was just announced. The trajectory is too early to assess.
- 2.Partnership with NFL for Banking and Wealth Managementgrowthbehind0% progress
4/16: “The NFL and U.S. Bank announced a new multi-year partnership naming U.S. Bank an official bank and wealth management sponsor.”
Why this status
Newly stated in 2026-Q1. The partnership with the NFL is intended to enhance U.S. Bancorp's brand visibility and expand its wealth management services. Financial impacts are not yet visible in the financials, as the partnership is newly announced. The trajectory is too early to assess.
- 3.Maintain Strong Revenue Growthgrowthbehind0% progress
4/16: “CEO: 'Strong revenue growth drove 440 basis points of positive operating leverage.'”
Why this status
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Revenue grew from $6,958 million in 2025-Q1 to $7,288 million in 2026-Q1, reflecting a 4.7% increase. The company is delivering on its commitment to maintain strong revenue growth, supported by loan growth and improved asset mix.
Guidance track record
Insufficient guidance history for this ticker.
Position context
— how violent might the path be while I hold it?Why this risk level
Recent vol — 30d annualized 21%; 252d 22%.
Drawdown — Max 1y −16%. Bad day move −2%.
Beta to sector ETF (XLF) — 1.16 over 1y.
Liquidity — score 100/100.
Sub-scores — vol 63/100, drawdown 68/100, beta 84/100, earnings vol —.
via XLF
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive — historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only — describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-05-08.
What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
- risk change · risk_labelseverity 20
risk label changed from 'low' to 'moderate'.
As of 2026-05-08, the risk label for USB changed from 'low' to 'moderate'. This is a risk change with a severity score of 20.0. The forward view indicates an unfavorable scenario with a composite delta estimate of -8.0 if next-quarter guidance is cut, and several favorable scenarios, including a composite delta estimate of 6.57 if rates reverse from negative to positive. The overall scores reflect a composite score of 17.1 and a medium confidence label.
as of 2026-05-08
Management scorecard
How management runs the business — capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What management is focused on
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
- #1
Partnership with Amazon for Small Business Credit Cards
GrowthExpand small business payments offerings through a new partnership with Amazon, launching new credit cards.
BehindNewly stated in 2026-Q1. The partnership with Amazon aims to expand U.S. Bancorp's small business payments offerings. While this is a new initiative, the financials do not yet reflect any impact from this partnership, as it was just announced. The trajectory is too early to assess.
0%CEO/CFO:“Amazon announced it is transitioning its small business credit card portfolio to U.S. Bank.”Earnings callSource dated 2026-04-16Stated 1 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-04-16Show history (1)
- 2026-Q1Earnings call
“Amazon announced it is transitioning its small business credit card portfolio to U.S. Bank.”
- #2
Partnership with NFL for Banking and Wealth Management
GrowthEstablish a multi-year partnership with the NFL, focusing on player financial empowerment and sponsorships.
BehindNewly stated in 2026-Q1. The partnership with the NFL is intended to enhance U.S. Bancorp's brand visibility and expand its wealth management services. Financial impacts are not yet visible in the financials, as the partnership is newly announced. The trajectory is too early to assess.
0%CEO/CFO:“The NFL and U.S. Bank announced a new multi-year partnership naming U.S. Bank an official bank and wealth management sponsor.”Earnings callSource dated 2026-04-16Stated 1 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-04-16Show history (1)
- 2026-Q1Earnings call
“The NFL and U.S. Bank announced a new multi-year partnership naming U.S. Bank an official bank and wealth management sponsor.”
- #3
Maintain Strong Revenue Growth
GrowthFocus on sustaining revenue growth through loan growth and improved asset mix.
BehindStated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Revenue grew from $6,958 million in 2025-Q1 to $7,288 million in 2026-Q1, reflecting a 4.7% increase. The company is delivering on its commitment to maintain strong revenue growth, supported by loan growth and improved asset mix.
0%CEO/CFO:“CEO: 'Strong revenue growth drove 440 basis points of positive operating leverage.'”Earnings callSource dated 2026-04-16Stated 2 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-04-16Show history (2)
- 2026-Q1Earnings call
“CEO: 'Strong revenue growth drove 440 basis points of positive operating leverage.'”
- 2025-Q4Earnings call
“CEO: 'We remain committed to our strategic priorities and medium-term targets.'”
How this stock is priced
Two ways to read price: against peers in the same business, and against the company's own history.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
P/E over the last 5 years
71 monthly pointsHow this compares
A side-by-side read on composite, valuation, and risk versus peers.
| Stock | Composite | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
USB U.S. Bancorp | +17 | inexpensive | moderate |
BRK-B Berkshire Hathaway | +6.0 | — | moderate |
JPM JPMorgan Chase | -0.9 | full | low |
V Visa Inc. | +20 | — | low |
MA Mastercard | +15 | full | low |
Risk — how this stock moves
What a normal day looks like, what a bad day looks like, and the worst the last year has thrown at it.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios — if X happens, the score would shift by about Y points. These are not predictions.
- If rates state reverses from -0.37 (negative) to +0.37 (positive)+6.6 pts
- If financials sector trend rises from +0.07 into 'improving' (>= +0.20)+5.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is raised (currently NEW as of 2026-04-16)+4.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is cut (currently NEW as of 2026-04-16)-8.0 pts
- If financials sector trend falls from +0.07 into 'weakening' (<= -0.20)-5.0 pts
Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-04-1623d agoItem 2.02
RESULTS OF OPERATIONS AND FINANCIAL CONDITION. On April 16, 2026, U.S. Bancorp (the “Company”) issued a press release reporting financial results for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. The press release is attached as Exhibit 99.1 hereto and is incorporated herein by reference. The press release contains forward-looking statements regarding the Company and includes a cautionary statement identifying important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those anticipated.…
earnings preannouncementneutralscore 39
Score history
The composite score, snapshot by snapshot. The dotted line at zero separates leaning-positive from leaning-negative.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.