Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Vivani Medical Inc (VANI)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
$1.07+1.90%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for VANI yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Release Phase 1 results for NPM-139 by end 2026 | It plans Phase 1 results for NPM-139 also by year-end. | Intact | NPM-139 Phase 1 results delayed beyond 2026-12-31 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 12, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is speculative growth, not an established compounder, because it remains loss-making and its earnings quality is fragile. The thesis is in a watch state: management is progressing key milestones, but the evidence is low confidence and recent performance remains below its industry cohort.
The evidence describes VANI's valuation as expensive, but does not provide enough detail to compare it with peers or define the market's specific expectations. The priced-in fragility rating is low because expensive valuation is not paired with the full combination of weak fundamentals and turbulence.
Near term, losses of about $6.4 million to $6.8 million per quarter and a 42% estimated miss probability leave execution risk high. Cash rose to $20.8 million by 2026-Q2, supporting the stated runway through mid-2027; management is also targeting SLIM-1 Phase 1 results by November 2026 and advancing an evaluation partnership for NPM-139. The latest reported earnings were in line, while two litigation filings and weaker-than-cohort performance remain risks.
The multi-year thesis hinges on timely SLIM-1 results that can support a Phase 2 trial in 2027, progress with Novo Nordisk on NPM-139, and continued control of losses. A guidance cut or further weakening in jobs data would be unfavorable; continued strength among healthcare bellwethers could support sector momentum, though it would not resolve company-specific risks.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, VANI's business case rests on clinical and partnership milestones being delivered before its expected cash runway through mid-2027 becomes a more pressing constraint. The setup remains high risk, with limited confidence in the evidence and meaningful near-term execution uncertainty. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Operating losses are improving slightly, from -$7.46M to -$6.82M in early 2026. |
| Intact |
| Operating loss worsens beyond -$7.5M in 2026-Q1 |
Operating income: $-6.874M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Operating loss no worse than -$6.8M in 2026-Q1. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Aug 13, 2026-6,874,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Release SLIM-1 top-line results by end 2026 | Vivani aims to release SLIM-1 results by end of 2026. | Intact | SLIM-1 results delayed beyond 2026-12-31 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-0.44 → $-0.46 · observed estimates
Unavailable → Unavailable · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $-0.44 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-07-25 | $-0.44 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-07-26 | $-0.44 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-07-27 | $-0.44 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-07-28 | $-0.44 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-0.44 | $0 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-07-30 | $-0.44 | $0 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-07-31 | $-0.44 | $0 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-0.44 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-08-02 | $-0.44 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-08-03 | $-0.44 | $0 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-0.44 | $0 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-0.44 | $0 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-0.44 | $0 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-0.44 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-0.44 | $0 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-0.44 | $0 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-0.44 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-0.44 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-0.44 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-0.44 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-0.44 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-0.44 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-0.44 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-0.44 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-0.39 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-0.39 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-0.39 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-0.39 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-0.39 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-0.39 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-0.39 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-0.39 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-0.39 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-0.39 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-0.39 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-0.39 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-0.39 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-0.39 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-0.39 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-0.39 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-0.39 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-0.39 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-0.39 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-0.39 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-0.39 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-0.39 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-0.39 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-0.39 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-0.39 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-0.39 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-0.39 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-0.39 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-0.39 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-0.39 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-0.39 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-0.39 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-0.39 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-0.39 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-0.39 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-0.39 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-0.39 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-0.39 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-0.39 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-0.39 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-0.39 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-0.39 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-0.39 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-0.39 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-0.39 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-0.39 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-0.39 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-0.39 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-0.39 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-0.39 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-0.39 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-0.39 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-0.39 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-0.39 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-0.39 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-0.39 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-0.39 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-0.39 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-0.39 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-0.46 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-0.46 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-0.46 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-0.46 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-0.46 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-0.46 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-0.46 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-0.46 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-0.46 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-0.46 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-0.46 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-0.46 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-0.46 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-0.46 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-0.46 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-0.46 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-0.46 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-0.46 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 3 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.