INNOVATE Corp (VATE)
NYSEIndustrialsEngineering & ConstructionSnapshot 2026-09-04
$7.44-0.27%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsEngineering & ConstructionSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · VATE
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -79.4% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 20.4% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 99.8 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 33 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
VATE — credit agreement
Dated 2026-09-02
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement Tenth Amendment to Credit Agreement On August 28, 2026, INNOVATE Corp. (the “Company”) and MSD PCOF Partners IX, LLC (“MSD”) entered into a Tenth Amendment to Credit Agreement to extend the maturity of the Company’s existing credit agreement, dated as of March 13, 2020, by and among the Company, the guarantors named therein and MSD (the “MSD Credit Agreement”), to December 31, 2026. The foregoing summary does not purport to be complete and is qualifi…
Why it matters: Completing the sale will help INNOVATE's finances. This is important for future growth.
Supportive ifThe sale of Broadcasting to CONX is done. All approvals are secured.
Worry ifThe sale of Broadcasting to CONX is delayed. It may not get the needed approvals.
Why it matters: A clinical study announcement would show progress in commercialization. This is key for growth in Life Sciences.
Supportive ifMediBeacon starts clinical studies for the new TGFR Sensor.
Worry ifNo announcement of clinical studies for the TGFR Sensor by the end of Q3.
Why it matters: Strong revenue growth would show good progress and help INNOVATE's overall performance.
Supportive ifDBM Global reports revenue growth above 75% year-over-year in Q3.
Worry ifDBM Global reports revenue growth below 50% year-over-year in Q3.
Why it matters: Details on the buyback program can signal management's confidence in the company's value and future. It may support share price.
Supportive ifINNOVATE shares details and a timeline for the share buyback program.
Worry ifNo more details are given, or the buyback program is delayed or canceled.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$342 on $10,000 · ±3.4% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $902 loss on $10,000 · 9.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $6,446 loss on $10,000 · 64.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Getting this dividend would improve INNOVATE's cash flow. It shows strong performance at DBM Global.
Supportive ifDBM Global pays a cash dividend of about $12 million on August 3, 2026.
Worry ifDBM Global does not pay the announced cash dividend.