VirnetX Holding Corp (VHC)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-11-04
$9.65+3.32%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · VHC
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 142.2% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 100.0% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 42.2 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Elevated risk of a next-quarter earnings miss: this name is on a run of consecutive earnings misses and has been missing across recent quarters. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 21 industry peers
VHC — debt issuance
Dated 2026-10-01
ENTRY INTO A MATERIAL DEFINITIVE AGREEMENT. On October 1, 2026, in connection with the launch of an “at the market” offering program, VirnetX Holding Corporation (the “Company”) entered into an At the Market Offering Agreement (the “Sales Agreement”) with Titan Partners Securities LLC, as sales agent, (the “Agent”) pursuant to which the Company may sell, from time to time, an aggregate of up to $19,135,717 of shares (the “Shares”) of its common stock, par value $0.0001 per share (the “Common…
Why it matters: Current signals mark VHC as loss-making. A smaller loss would show progress; a larger loss would add concern.
Watch forThe November 13 report shows a smaller net loss than the prior reported period.
Also watch forThe November 13 report shows a larger net loss than the prior reported period.
Why it matters: The sector is still growing, but its trend is easing. Growth below its median would mark a further slowdown.
Worry ifThe sector update says revenue growth has dropped below its median.
Less concerning ifThe sector update says revenue growth remains at or above its median.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$298 on $10,000 · ±3.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $958 loss on $10,000 · 9.6% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $6,247 loss on $10,000 · 62.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.