VirnetX Holding Corp (VHC)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-09-04
$11.65+1.84%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · VHC
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 192.5% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 100.0% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 92.5 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Elevated risk of a next-quarter earnings miss: this name is on a run of consecutive earnings misses and has been missing across recent quarters. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 69 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
VHC — officer change
Dated 2026-06-16
The filing is about an equity plan amendment, not a management change.
Why it matters: Weak RFP status for VirnetX contrasts with strong signals from peers like NVIDIA and Microsoft. This may indicate competitive challenges.
Worry ifA peer, like NVIDIA or Microsoft, reports a significant increase in RFP wins.
Less concerning ifVirnetX is doing better with its RFP status. This shows it may recover.
Why it matters: If sector revenue growth picks up, it may benefit VirnetX's performance.
Supportive ifSector revenue growth speeds up to 4% or more.
Worry ifSector revenue growth keeps slowing down below 4%.
Why it matters: If revenue growth drops, it signals a slowdown in the sector's growth phase. This could hurt investor confidence.
Worry ifRevenue growth is lower than the median for the sector. This shows a big slowdown.
Less concerning ifRevenue growth remains above the median, showing continued strength in the sector.
Why it matters: Stable management matters for VirnetX. Changes can impact its strategy.
Watch forManagement shares new plans or goals that make the company outlook better.
Also watch forManagement priorities stay the same or get worse. This shows no progress is made.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$308 on $10,000 · ±3.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $930 loss on $10,000 · 9.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,886 loss on $10,000 · 58.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Changes in leadership can shift the company's direction. This can affect investor confidence and stock performance.
Watch forAnnouncement of a new executive with a strong track record in the industry.
Also watch forThere are no big changes in leaders or plans.
Why it matters: The sector is easing, and a drop in revenue growth for VirnetX could signal deeper issues.
Worry ifVirnetX reports revenue growth below the sector median of 2%.
Less concerning ifRevenue growth is above the sector average. This shows the company is stable.
Why it matters: A change in RFP status may show better business chances for VirnetX.
Supportive ifRFP status improves to at least neutral, matching or exceeding peer levels.
Worry ifRFP status remains weak while peers maintain strong status.