VLO
Valero EnergyNYSEEnergyOil & Gas Refining & MarketingSnapshot 2026-05-08
As of May 8, 2026, VLO has a composite score of 13.0, categorized as "mild favorable." This score is influenced by a medium confidence level of 76.0 and is driven by macroeconomic factors such as inflation, labor, growth, and rates. The analysis is provisional, indicating that the scores may change as new information becomes available.
Price
Daily closes from AlphaVantage. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Factor signals
Read top-to-bottom: thesis (is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold), watch flags (has something changed worth re-reading), and position context (how violent might the path be). Each pill is a parallel diagnostic — never aggregated into a single score.
Thesis
— is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold?Why this rank
- Direction share0.81
- Slope (norm)-0.50
- Bonus0.00
Why this rank
Trailing four: 2024-Q3, 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3
Why this rank
Watch
— has something changed worth re-reading?Why this setup
EPS estimate $6.07 → $9.38 (+54.6% / 30d). 9 raised, 2 cut, 14 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 1 downgrade / 30d, 5 maintained. 53% of analysts rate Buy.
3 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target -6.9% above current price.
1 positive, 0 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
F4 · Management deep-dive — recent events, stated priorities, guidance track record
Recent 8-K events
2 material events in the last 24 months — top 2 listed below.
Stated priorities
3 priorityies extracted from earnings transcripts (as of 2026-05-08).
- 1.Complete St. Charles FCC Unit optimizationproductmixed65% progress
4/30: “The St. Charles FCC Unit optimization project is expected to be completed and begin operations in the third quarter of 2026.”
Why this status
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. The St. Charles FCC Unit optimization project is on track for completion by Q3 2026. No specific financial impact is reported yet, but the project is expected to enhance the refinery's ability to produce high-value products. Persistent statement, limited substantive delivery this quarter.
- 2.Maintain capital investmentscapital allocationmixed44% progressprovisional
1/29: “Expected capital investments $1,725 million for fiscal year 2026.”
Why this status
Newly stated in 2025-Q4. Valero plans capital investments of $1,725 million for fiscal year 2026. This commitment aligns with their strategy to sustain business operations. The financials show a mixed status with no specific updates on progress this quarter.
- 3.Increase cash dividendcapital allocationmixed44% progress
4/30: “Increased quarterly cash dividend on common stock by 6 percent to $1.20 per share on January 22, 2026.”
Why this status
Newly stated in 2026-Q1. Valero increased its quarterly cash dividend by 6% to $1.20 per share, demonstrating a commitment to shareholder returns. The financials reflect strong performance with net income of $1.3 billion in 2026-Q1, supporting this dividend increase.
Guidance track record
Insufficient guidance history for this ticker.
Position context
— how violent might the path be while I hold it?Why this risk level
Recent vol — 30d annualized 44%; 252d 35%.
Drawdown — Max 1y −14%. Bad day move −3%.
Beta to sector ETF (XLE) — 0.10 over 1y.
Liquidity — score 100/100.
Sub-scores — vol 42/100, drawdown 72/100, beta 10/100, earnings vol —.
via XLE
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive — historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only — describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-05-08.
What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-05-08
Management scorecard
How management runs the business — capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What management is focused on
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
- #1
Complete St. Charles FCC Unit optimization
ProductValero aims to complete the St. Charles FCC Unit optimization project by Q3 2026 to enhance refinery output.
MixedStated in 2 of last 2 quarters. The St. Charles FCC Unit optimization project is on track for completion by Q3 2026. No specific financial impact is reported yet, but the project is expected to enhance the refinery's ability to produce high-value products. Persistent statement, limited substantive delivery this quarter.
65%CEO/CFO:“The St. Charles FCC Unit optimization project is expected to be completed and begin operations in the third quarter of 2026.”Earnings callSource dated 2026-04-30Stated 2 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-04-30Show history (2)
- 2026-Q1Earnings call
“The St. Charles FCC Unit optimization project is expected to be completed and begin operations in the third quarter of 2026.”
- 2025-Q4Earnings call
“The St. Charles FCC Unit optimization project is still expected to begin operations in the second half of 2026.”
- #2
Maintain capital investments
Capital allocationNew since 2026-05-04Valero continues to focus on maintaining capital investments to support business operations.
MixedNewly stated in 2025-Q4. Valero plans capital investments of $1,725 million for fiscal year 2026. This commitment aligns with their strategy to sustain business operations. The financials show a mixed status with no specific updates on progress this quarter.
Expected capital investments $1,725 million for fiscal year 202644%CEO/CFO:“Expected capital investments $1,725 million for fiscal year 2026.”10-KSource dated 2026-01-29Stated 1 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04provisionalShow history (1)
- 2025-Q410-K
“Expected capital investments $1,725 million for fiscal year 2026.”
- #3
Increase cash dividend
Capital allocationValero increased its quarterly cash dividend by 6% to $1.20 per share, reflecting a commitment to shareholder returns.
MixedNewly stated in 2026-Q1. Valero increased its quarterly cash dividend by 6% to $1.20 per share, demonstrating a commitment to shareholder returns. The financials reflect strong performance with net income of $1.3 billion in 2026-Q1, supporting this dividend increase.
44%CEO/CFO:“Increased quarterly cash dividend on common stock by 6 percent to $1.20 per share on January 22, 2026.”Press releaseSource dated 2026-04-30Stated 1 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-04-30Show history (1)
- 2026-Q1Press release
“Increased quarterly cash dividend on common stock by 6 percent to $1.20 per share on January 22, 2026.”
How this stock is priced
Two ways to read price: against peers in the same business, and against the company's own history.
Not enough peers to compare yet.
Around its own typical valuation.
P/E over the last 5 years
51 monthly pointsHow this compares
A side-by-side read on composite, valuation, and risk versus peers.
| Stock | Composite | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
VLO Valero Energy | +13 | full | moderate |
XOM ExxonMobil | +5.8 | expensive | moderate |
CVX Chevron Corporation | +3.0 | expensive | moderate |
COP ConocoPhillips | +8.0 | expensive | moderate |
WMB Williams Companies | +4.1 | fair | moderate |
Risk — how this stock moves
What a normal day looks like, what a bad day looks like, and the worst the last year has thrown at it.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios — if X happens, the score would shift by about Y points. These are not predictions.
- If inflation state reverses from -0.34 (negative) to +0.34 (positive)+5.4 pts
- If energy sector trend rises from -0.03 into 'improving' (>= +0.20)+5.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is raised (currently NEW as of 2026-01-29)+4.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is cut (currently NEW as of 2026-01-29)-8.0 pts
- If energy sector trend falls from -0.03 into 'weakening' (<= -0.20)-5.0 pts
Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-04-308d agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 30, 2026, Valero Energy Corporation (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing the Company’s financial and operating results for the first quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished with this report as Exhibit 99.01 and is incorporated herein by reference. The information in this report is being furnished, not filed, pursuant to
earnings preannouncementpositivescore 60 - 2026-05-081d agoItem 5.02
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On May 7, 2026, Eric A. Fisher, Senior Vice President Product Supply, Trading and Wholesale of Valero Energy Corporation (“Valero”), informed Valero that he intends to retire on or about July 1, 2026. In the interim, Mr. Fisher plans to help transition his responsibilities internally as part of Valero’s succession plan.
executive changeneutralscore 55 - 2026-03-092mo agoItem 1.01
Entry Into a Material Definitive Agreement. On March 5, 2026, Valero Energy Corporation (the “Company”) entered into an underwriting agreement (the “Underwriting Agreement”) with SMBC Nikko Securities America, Inc., Citigroup Global Markets Inc., MUFG Securities Americas Inc. and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, as representatives of the several underwriters named therein, relating to the issuance and sale of $850,000,000 aggregate principal amount of its 5.150% Senior Notes due 2036 (the “Notes”…
capital allocationneutralscore 16 - 2026-01-293mo agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On January 29, 2026, Valero Energy Corporation (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing the Company’s financial and operating results for the fourth quarter ended December 31, 2025. A copy of the press release is furnished with this report as Exhibit 99.01 and is incorporated herein by reference. The information in this report is being furnished, not filed, pursuant to
earnings preannouncementpositivescore 7
Score history
The composite score, snapshot by snapshot. The dotted line at zero separates leaning-positive from leaning-negative.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.