VMC
Vulcan Materials CompanyNYSEMaterialsBuilding MaterialsSnapshot 2026-05-08
As of May 8, 2026, VMC has a composite score of 12.4, categorized with a signal label of "mild favorable." This score is influenced by a medium confidence level of 76.4 and reflects strengths in valuation at 70.0, indicating it is considered inexpensive. The analysis is provisional, with key drivers including macroeconomic factors such as growth, inflation, labor, and rates.
Price
Daily closes from AlphaVantage. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Factor signals
Read top-to-bottom: thesis (is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold), watch flags (has something changed worth re-reading), and position context (how violent might the path be). Each pill is a parallel diagnostic — never aggregated into a single score.
Thesis
— is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold?Why this rank
- Direction share1.00
- Slope (norm)0.03
- Bonus0.00
Why this rank
Trailing four: 2024-Q3, 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3
Why this rank
Watch
— has something changed worth re-reading?Why this setup
EPS estimate $2.76 → $2.62 (-5.0% / 30d). 1 raised, 12 cut, 16 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 6 maintained. 73% of analysts rate Buy.
7 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 8.9% above current price.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
F4 · Management deep-dive — recent events, stated priorities, guidance track record
Recent 8-K events
2 material events in the last 24 months — top 2 listed below.
Stated priorities
3 priorityies extracted from earnings transcripts (as of 2026-05-08).
- 1.Deliver Adjusted EBITDA of $2.4-$2.6 billiongrowthbehind0% progress
4/29: “We reiterate our full-year outlook to deliver between $2.4 and $2.6 billion of Adjusted EBITDA.”
Why this status
Stated in 4 of last 4 quarters. Revenue was $1.4781 billion in 2025-Q4, indicating limited progress towards the $2.4-$2.6 billion Adjusted EBITDA target. The trajectory is behind expectations, as highlighted by the recent earnings miss.
- 2.Manage SG&A expenses between $580-$590 millioncostbehind0% progress
2/17: “Selling, Administrative and General expense of $580 to $590 million.”
Why this status
Newly stated in 2026-Q1. The financials do not provide specific SG&A expense figures, making it difficult to assess progress. However, the priority is behind as per the prior priorities status.
- 3.Allocate $750-$800 million for capital spendingcapital allocationmixed30% progress
2/17: “Capital spending for maintenance and growth projects of $750 to $800 million.”
Why this status
Newly stated in 2026-Q1. The financials do not detail capital spending figures, making it challenging to evaluate progress. The priority is currently behind as per the prior priorities status.
Guidance track record
Insufficient guidance history for this ticker.
Position context
— how violent might the path be while I hold it?Why this risk level
Recent vol — 30d annualized 29%; 252d 25%.
Drawdown — Max 1y −22%. Bad day move −3%.
Beta to sector ETF (XLB) — 0.04 over 1y.
Liquidity — score 100/100.
Sub-scores — vol 59/100, drawdown 56/100, beta 4/100, earnings vol —.
via XLB
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive — historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only — describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-05-08.
What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-05-08
Management scorecard
How management runs the business — capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What management is focused on
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
- #1
Deliver Adjusted EBITDA of $2.4-$2.6 billion
GrowthNew since 2026-05-04Achieve full-year Adjusted EBITDA between $2.4 and $2.6 billion.
BehindStated in 4 of last 4 quarters. Revenue was $1.4781 billion in 2025-Q4, indicating limited progress towards the $2.4-$2.6 billion Adjusted EBITDA target. The trajectory is behind expectations, as highlighted by the recent earnings miss.
0%CEO/CFO:“We reiterate our full-year outlook to deliver between $2.4 and $2.6 billion of Adjusted EBITDA.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-04-29Stated 4 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04Show history (4)
- 2026-Q1Multiple sources
“We reiterate our full-year outlook to deliver between $2.4 and $2.6 billion of Adjusted EBITDA.”
- 2025-Q4Multiple sources
“As a result, we expect to deliver between $2.35 and $2.45 billion of Adjusted EBITDA in 2025.”
- 2025-Q3Multiple sources
“supports our full-year outlook to deliver $2.35 to $2.55 billion of Adjusted EBITDA.”
- 2025-Q2Multiple sources
“we reiterate our full-year outlook to deliver $2.35 to $2.55 billion of Adjusted EBITDA.”
- #2
Manage SG&A expenses between $580-$590 million
CostNew since 2026-05-04Control Selling, General, and Administrative expenses within the $580-$590 million range.
BehindNewly stated in 2026-Q1. The financials do not provide specific SG&A expense figures, making it difficult to assess progress. However, the priority is behind as per the prior priorities status.
0%CEO/CFO:“Selling, Administrative and General expense of $580 to $590 million.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-02-17Stated 1 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04Show history (1)
- 2026-Q1Multiple sources
“Selling, Administrative and General expense of $580 to $590 million.”
- #3
Allocate $750-$800 million for capital spending
Capital allocationNew since 2026-05-04Invest $750 to $800 million in capital spending for maintenance and growth projects.
Behind →MixedNewly stated in 2026-Q1. The financials do not detail capital spending figures, making it challenging to evaluate progress. The priority is currently behind as per the prior priorities status.
30%CEO/CFO:“Capital spending for maintenance and growth projects of $750 to $800 million.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-02-17Stated 1 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04Show history (1)
- 2026-Q1Multiple sources
“Capital spending for maintenance and growth projects of $750 to $800 million.”
How this stock is priced
Two ways to read price: against peers in the same business, and against the company's own history.
Not enough peers to compare yet.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
P/E over the last 5 years
71 monthly pointsHow this compares
A side-by-side read on composite, valuation, and risk versus peers.
| Stock | Composite | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
VMC Vulcan Materials Company | +12 | inexpensive | moderate |
LIN Linde plc | +24 | inexpensive | moderate |
NEM Newmont | +17 | inexpensive | elevated |
FCX Freeport-McMoRan | +6.4 | — | elevated |
SHW Sherwin-Williams | +18 | inexpensive | moderate |
Risk — how this stock moves
What a normal day looks like, what a bad day looks like, and the worst the last year has thrown at it.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios — if X happens, the score would shift by about Y points. These are not predictions.
- If materials sector trend rises from +0.10 into 'improving' (>= +0.20)+5.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is raised (currently REAFFIRMED as of 2026-04-29)+4.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is cut (currently REAFFIRMED as of 2026-04-29)-8.0 pts
- If materials sector trend falls from +0.10 into 'weakening' (<= -0.20)-5.0 pts
- If growth state reverses from +0.25 (positive) to -0.25 (negative)-3.5 pts
Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-04-299d agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 29, 2026, Vulcan Materials Company announced its financial results for the first quarter ended March 31, 2026. The press release announcing the results is furnished as Exhibit 99.1.
earnings preannouncementneutralscore 53 - 2026-02-172mo agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 17, 2026, Vulcan Materials Company announced its financial results for the fourth quarter ended December 31, 2025. The press release announcing the results is furnished as Exhibit 99.1.
earnings preannouncementnegativescore 12 - 2025-12-124mo agoItem 5.02
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. As previously disclosed in the Original Report, on October 10, 2025, following a comprehensive succession planning process, the Board of Directors (the “Board”) of Vulcan elected Ronnie A. Pruitt, who currently serves as Chief Operating Officer of Vulcan, as the next Chief Executive Officer of Vulcan, effective January 1, 2026 (the “Effective Date”…
executive changeneutralscore 3 - 2025-12-124mo agoItem 5.02
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On December 10, 2025, Stanley G. Bass, Chief Strategy Officer of Vulcan Materials Company (“Vulcan”), notified Vulcan that he will retire from such position effective April 30, 2026. On December 12, 2025, upon the recommendation of the Compensation & Human Capital Committee of the Vulcan Board of Directors (the “Board”), the Board approved the pror…
executive changeneutralscore 2
Score history
The composite score, snapshot by snapshot. The dotted line at zero separates leaning-positive from leaning-negative.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.