Vince Holding Corp (VNCE)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryApparel - ManufacturersSnapshot 2026-11-04
$13.58+3.59%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryApparel - ManufacturersSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · VNCE
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -20.7% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 24.3% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 45.0 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 3 industry peers
VNCE — earnings miss
Dated 2026-06-16
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On June 16, 2026, Vince Holding Corp. (the "Company") announced its financial results for its first fiscal quarter ended May 2, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K. The information, including Exhibit 99.1 hereto, which the registrant furnished in this report, is not deemed "filed" for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, or otherwise subject to the…
Why it matters: Management gave this sales range for the Vince business. Results will test whether growth continues across both sales channels.
Supportive ifAt the December 8 earnings report, Vince Q3 sales are up 5% to 8% year over year or more.
Worry ifVince Q3 sales are up less than 5% year over year, or fall below the prior-year level.
Why it matters: Q2 gross margin included a $10.4 million tariff refund. The next report can show how margins perform without that benefit.
Watch forVince Q3 adjusted operating margin is at least 7.5%. Adjusted EBITDA margin is at least 8.5%.
Also watch forVince Q3 adjusted operating margin is below 7.5%. Or its adjusted EBITDA margin is below 8.5%.
Why it matters: OVO had nearly $50 million in 2025 sales. VNCE aims to grow sales above $100 million by fiscal 2030, using new stores and wholesale.
Supportive ifOVO reports sales growth toward its $100 million fiscal 2030 goal. VNCE reports OVO wholesale sales through department store partners.
Worry ifOVO sales fall below the 2025 level. Or, no OVO wholesale launch is reported by fiscal 2030.
Why it matters: VNCE said the OVO deal would add to earnings in fiscal 2027. The first full year of results will test that claim.
Supportive ifVNCE reports that OVO added to fiscal 2027 earnings. OVO sales and operating costs are shown separately.
Worry ifVNCE reports that OVO reduced fiscal 2027 earnings. Or, VNCE reports no clear OVO contribution despite full-year results.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$337 on $10,000 · ±3.4% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $776 loss on $10,000 · 7.8% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,498 loss on $10,000 · 55.0% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: VNCE raised its fiscal 2026 sales outlook after Q2 growth. The December report will show whether full-year sales meet it.
Supportive ifFiscal 2026 Vince sales are up 8% to 10% year over year or more.
Worry ifFiscal 2026 Vince sales are up less than 8% year over year, or fall below the prior-year level.