Vanda Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (VNDA)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-09-04
$5.43+1.69%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · VNDA
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -86.7% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 40.1% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 126.8 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Elevated risk of a next-quarter earnings miss: this name has been missing across recent quarters and is on a run of consecutive earnings misses. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 398 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
VNDA — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-05
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On August 5, 2026, Vanda Pharmaceuticals Inc. (“Vanda”) issued a press release and is holding a conference call regarding its results of operations and financial condition for the quarter ended June 30, 2026 (the “Earnings Call”). The full text of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated by reference herein. Various statements to be made during the Earnings Call are “forward-looking sta…
Why it matters: A smaller net loss shows better cost management and stronger financial health.
Supportive ifNet loss in Q2 is less than $48.6 million.
Worry ifNet loss in Q2 exceeds $50 million.
Why it matters: Vanda's revenue guidance shows how fast it is growing.
Watch forManagement says 2026 revenue will be between $240 million and $290 million.
Also watch forManagement cuts 2026 revenue guidance to less than $240 million.
Why it matters: Steady growth in Fanapt sales is key. It is important for overall revenue stability.
Supportive ifFanapt net product sales in Q3 2026 grow year-over-year by at least 20%.
Worry ifFanapt net product sales in Q3 2026 decline year-over-year or grow less than 10%.
Why it matters: Good results could increase Vanda's pipeline value. This may boost investor confidence.
Watch forTopline results from any of the three Phase III trials show positive efficacy.
Also watch forTopline results from any of the three Phase III trials show negative efficacy.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$214 on $10,000 · ±2.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $552 loss on $10,000 · 5.5% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,843 loss on $10,000 · 48.4% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Maintaining guidance for Fanapt® shows stability in a key product. This is important for investor confidence.
Supportive ifVanda confirms revenue guidance for Fanapt® remains unchanged in the next earnings call.
Worry ifVanda lowers revenue guidance for Fanapt® in the next earnings call.
Why it matters: If healthcare sector growth speeds up, it may help Vanda's performance. It shows the sector is recovering.
Supportive ifHealthcare sector revenue growth rises back toward 10% year over year.
Worry ifHealthcare sector revenue growth keeps slowing down. It is now below 10% year over year.
Why it matters: Sales growth is crucial for meeting the full-year revenue guidance.
Supportive ifTotal net product sales in Q3 2026 exceed $50 million.
Worry ifTotal net product sales in Q3 2026 fall below $45 million.
Why it matters: Strong early sales of NEREUS TM would show it is doing well in the market.
Supportive ifNEREUS TM net product sales exceed $2 million in Q3 2026.
Worry ifNEREUS TM net product sales fall below $1 million in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: The launch of BYSANTI TM will affect revenue and its presence in bipolar disorder treatments.
Supportive ifBYSANTI TM will launch in Q4 2026, and initial sales will be reported.
Worry ifBYSANTI TM launch is delayed beyond Q4 2026.
Why it matters: A rise in HETLIOZ TM sales would show recovery after recent drops.
Supportive ifHETLIOZ TM net product sales exceed $10 million in Q3 2026.
Worry ifHETLIOZ TM sales remain below $5 million in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: The FDA's choice on Quimilza TM will affect Vanda's plans and market chances.
Watch forFDA approves Quimilza TM by the PDUFA date of December 12, 2026.
Also watch forFDA delays the decision on Quimilza TM past December 12, 2026.