Vanda Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (VNDA)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
$3.88+3.47%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · VNDA
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance recently climbed back into the top half of its industry — confirming the recovery.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -88.4% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 32.0% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 120.4 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name has erratic recent earnings surprises and operates in a high-miss-rate industry. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 65 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
VNDA — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-05
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On August 5, 2026, Vanda Pharmaceuticals Inc. (“Vanda”) issued a press release and is holding a conference call regarding its results of operations and financial condition for the quarter ended June 30, 2026 (the “Earnings Call”). The full text of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated by reference herein. Various statements to be made during the Earnings Call are “forward-looking sta…
Why it matters: Fanapt is Vanda's largest product by Q3 sales. Continued growth would support its revenue base.
Supportive ifFanapt sales stay above $38.8 million per quarter. Total prescriptions rise year over year.
Worry ifFanapt sales fall below $38.8 million per quarter. Total prescriptions drop year over year.
Why it matters: FDA approval would clear a key step toward a new product launch. A delay or rejection would weaken that path.
Watch forFDA approves the Quimilza BLA for GPP by the December 12, 2026 target date.
Also watch forFDA rejects the BLA or does not act by December 12, 2026.
Why it matters: Vanda's latest full-year goal is above $240 million. Meeting it would support its recent revenue growth.
Supportive ifReported 2026 total revenue is greater than $240 million.
Worry ifVanda reports 2026 total revenue of $240 million or less.
Why it matters: NEREUS sales rose from $1.0 million to $1.6 million. More growth would show whether promotion builds demand.
Supportive ifNEREUS sales rise above $1.6 million per quarter after the sales team starts promoting it.
Worry ifNEREUS quarterly sales fall to $1.0 million or less.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$194 on $10,000 · ±1.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $558 loss on $10,000 · 5.6% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $6,077 loss on $10,000 · 60.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.