VRTX
Vertex PharmaceuticalsNASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-05-08
As of May 8, 2026, VRTX has a composite score of 13.0 and a signal label of "mild favorable." This score is influenced by a medium confidence level of 74.5 and reflects various factors, including macroeconomic conditions and sector trends. Key drivers include labor, rates, growth, and inflation, with the sector score at 7.6 and a moderate risk label. The analysis is provisional.
Price
Daily closes from AlphaVantage. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Factor signals
Read top-to-bottom: thesis (is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold), watch flags (has something changed worth re-reading), and position context (how violent might the path be). Each pill is a parallel diagnostic — never aggregated into a single score.
Thesis
— is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold?Why this rank
- Direction share-0.03
- Slope (norm)-0.81
- Bonus0.00
Why this rank
Trailing four: 2024-Q3, 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3
Why this rank
Watch
— has something changed worth re-reading?Buyback / dividend activity on weakening fundamentals — historically a value-trap pattern (48% T+1y positive return vs 69% baseline in IT 2024-26).
Why this setup
EPS estimate $4.73 → $4.75 (+0.4% / 30d). 4 raised, 3 cut, 21 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 7 maintained. 81% of analysts rate Buy.
7 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 28.1% above current price.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
F4 · Management deep-dive — recent events, stated priorities, guidance track record
Recent 8-K events
4 material events in the last 24 months — top 4 listed below.
Stated priorities
3 priorityies extracted from earnings transcripts (as of 2026-05-08).
- 1.Increase 2026 revenuegrowthbehind0% progress
2/12: “CEO: 'Our focus in 2026 remains on executing across the CF franchise...'”
Why this status
Newly stated in 2025-Q4. Vertex provided full year 2026 revenue guidance of $12.95 billion to $13.1 billion, reflecting expectations for continued growth in CF and new product launches. The trajectory is behind as the company has not yet demonstrated substantial revenue growth in the financials.
- 2.Refine 2025 revenue guidancegrowthwatchprovisional
11/3: “Vertex refined its full year 2025 revenue guidance to $11.9 to $12.0 billion.”
Why this status
Stated in 1 of last 1 quarters. Vertex refined its full year 2025 revenue guidance to $11.9 to $12.0 billion, and achieved $12.0 billion in revenue for 2025, indicating alignment with the refined guidance. The trajectory is delivering as expected.
- 3.Lower 2025 tax rate guidancecostwatchprovisional
11/3: “Vertex lowered its prior non-GAAP effective tax rate guidance to 17% to 18%.”
Why this status
Stated in 1 of last 1 quarters. Vertex lowered its non-GAAP effective tax rate guidance to 17% to 18% for 2025, and the actual rate was 17.3%, indicating successful alignment with the guidance. The trajectory is delivering as planned.
Guidance track record
Insufficient guidance history for this ticker.
Position context
— how violent might the path be while I hold it?Why this risk level
Recent vol — 30d annualized 20%; 252d 35%.
Drawdown — Max 1y −24%. Bad day move −2%.
Beta to sector ETF (XLV) — 1.03 over 1y.
Liquidity — score 100/100.
Sub-scores — vol 41/100, drawdown 53/100, beta 97/100, earnings vol —.
via XLV
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive — historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only — describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-05-08.
What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-05-08
Management scorecard
How management runs the business — capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What management is focused on
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
- #1
Increase 2026 revenue
GrowthNew since 2026-05-04Focus on executing across the CF franchise and launching new products to increase revenue.
BehindNewly stated in 2025-Q4. Vertex provided full year 2026 revenue guidance of $12.95 billion to $13.1 billion, reflecting expectations for continued growth in CF and new product launches. The trajectory is behind as the company has not yet demonstrated substantial revenue growth in the financials.
0%CEO/CFO:“CEO: 'Our focus in 2026 remains on executing across the CF franchise...'”Press releaseSource dated 2026-02-12Stated 1 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04Show history (1)
- 2025-Q4Press release
“CEO: 'Our focus in 2026 remains on executing across the CF franchise...'”
- #2
Refine 2025 revenue guidance
GrowthNew since 2026-05-04Adjust revenue expectations for 2025 based on market conditions and product performance.
WatchStated in 1 of last 1 quarters. Vertex refined its full year 2025 revenue guidance to $11.9 to $12.0 billion, and achieved $12.0 billion in revenue for 2025, indicating alignment with the refined guidance. The trajectory is delivering as expected.
No scoreCEO/CFO:“Vertex refined its full year 2025 revenue guidance to $11.9 to $12.0 billion.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2025-11-03Stated 1 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04provisionalShow history (1)
- 2025-Q3Multiple sources
“Vertex refined its full year 2025 revenue guidance to $11.9 to $12.0 billion.”
- #3
Lower 2025 tax rate guidance
CostNew since 2026-05-04Adjust the non-GAAP effective tax rate guidance for 2025 to reflect changes in tax credits and liabilities.
WatchStated in 1 of last 1 quarters. Vertex lowered its non-GAAP effective tax rate guidance to 17% to 18% for 2025, and the actual rate was 17.3%, indicating successful alignment with the guidance. The trajectory is delivering as planned.
No scoreCEO/CFO:“Vertex lowered its prior non-GAAP effective tax rate guidance to 17% to 18%.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2025-11-03Stated 1 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04provisionalShow history (1)
- 2025-Q3Multiple sources
“Vertex lowered its prior non-GAAP effective tax rate guidance to 17% to 18%.”
How this stock is priced
Two ways to read price: against peers in the same business, and against the company's own history.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
P/E over the last 5 years
45 monthly pointsHow this compares
A side-by-side read on composite, valuation, and risk versus peers.
| Stock | Composite | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
VRTX Vertex Pharmaceuticals | +13 | full | moderate |
LLY Lilly (Eli) | +21 | full | moderate |
JNJ Johnson & Johnson | +18 | full | low |
ABBV AbbVie | +12 | fair | low |
UNH UnitedHealth Group | +24 | fair | elevated |
Risk — how this stock moves
What a normal day looks like, what a bad day looks like, and the worst the last year has thrown at it.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios — if X happens, the score would shift by about Y points. These are not predictions.
- If health_care sector trend rises from +0.06 into 'improving' (>= +0.20)+5.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is raised (currently REAFFIRMED as of 2026-05-04)+4.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is cut (currently REAFFIRMED as of 2026-05-04)-8.0 pts
- If labor state reverses from -0.31 (negative) to +0.31 (positive)-6.8 pts
- If health_care sector trend falls from +0.06 into 'weakening' (<= -0.20)-5.0 pts
Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-04-299d agoItem 5.02
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On April 28, 2026, Suketu Upadhyay informed the board of directors (the “Board”) of Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated (the “Company”) of his decision not to stand for re-election as a director of the Company at the Company’s 2026 annual meeting of shareholders (the “2026 Annual Meeting”). Mr. Upadhyay has recently been named the forthcoming Chief…
executive changeneutralscore 65 - 2026-05-044d agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 4, 2026, Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated (the "Company") issued a press release in which it reported its consolidated financial results for the three months ended March 31, 2026. A copy of that press release is attached to this Current Report on Form 8-K as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference. The information set forth in Exhibit 99.1 shall not be deemed to be “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchan…
earnings preannouncementneutralscore 60 - 2026-02-122mo agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 12, 2026, Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated (the "Company") issued a press release in which it reported its consolidated financial results for the three and twelve months ended December 31, 2025. A copy of that press release is attached to this Current Report on Form 8-K as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference. The information set forth in Exhibit 99.1 shall not be deemed to be “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of t…
earnings preannouncementneutralscore 9 - 2025-05-1911mo agoItem 8.01
Other Events. The Board of Directors of Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated (the “Company”) has authorized an additional program to repurchase up to $4.0 billion of the Company’s common stock (the “2025 Repurchase Program”). The 2025 Repurchase Program does not have an expiration date and can be discontinued at any time. Under the 2025 Repurchase Program, the Company may repurchase stock from time to time, subject to general business and market conditions and other investment opportunities, o…
capital allocationpositivescore 0
Score history
The composite score, snapshot by snapshot. The dotted line at zero separates leaning-positive from leaning-negative.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.