Verastem, Inc. (VSTM)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-05
$9.38-4.77%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · VSTM
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -23.4% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 72.3% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 95.7 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 117 industry peers
VSTM — CEO transition
Dated 2026-10-14
CEO — Daniel W. Paterson: The CEO is retiring with a named internal successor (Michael Bailey) already appointed, indicating an orderly succession rather than a sudden loss of leadership.
Why it matters: FDA feedback will shape plans for three first-line cancer trials. Clear agreement would support the planned 2027 starts.
Supportive ifThe company reports an FDA meeting by year-end and no major change to its planned Phase 3 trial designs.
Worry ifThe FDA meeting is delayed, or the company reports major changes to the planned trial designs.
Why it matters: Finishing enrollment on time would keep three studies on the stated path toward key data. A delay would push that path out.
Supportive ifThe company reports that all three TARGET-D Phase 2 trials finished enrollment by Dec. 31, 2026.
Worry ifOne or more of the three trials remains open for enrollment after Dec. 31, 2026.
Why it matters: Sales rose to $25.1 million in Q2, driven by new patient starts and refills. Q3 results test if that growth continues.
Watch forThe Nov. 5 results show Q3 product revenue above $25.1 million.
Also watch forThe Nov. 5 results show Q3 product revenue at or below $25.1 million.
Why it matters: RAMP 301 is the trial that confirms the approved ovarian cancer treatment. Its results test for clinical benefit.
Watch forMid-2027 results show the drug combination beats standard care on the trial's main measure.
Also watch forThe trial misses its main measure, or the results are delayed beyond mid-2027.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$244 on $10,000 · ±2.4% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $706 loss on $10,000 · 7.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $6,758 loss on $10,000 · 67.6% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: The change puts a new CEO in charge of drug sales and pipeline plans. Watch if key trial and sales goals stay on track.
Watch forBailey takes over on Jan. 1, and the company keeps its stated trial and sales plans on schedule.
Also watch forThe handoff is delayed, or the company reports a change to key trial or sales plans during the transition.