Verastem, Inc. (VSTM)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-09-04
$8.20+2.76%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · VSTM
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -31.9% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 77.2% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 109.2 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 398 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
VSTM — capital allocation — Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation
Dated 2026-08-06
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant. The information set forth in
Why it matters: Reaching this sales goal could lead to more funding from the royalty deal. It helps ongoing work.
Supportive ifSales of AVMAPKI FAKZYNJA CO-PACK reach or exceed $40 million in a quarter.
Worry ifSales are still under $40 million, which delays more funding.
Why it matters: The earnings report will show if Verastem is improving its financial situation. Investors will look for signs of progress.
Watch forThe earnings report shows revenue growth or smaller losses compared to last quarter.
Also watch forThe earnings report shows more losses or no change in revenue.
Why it matters: This partnership could help develop VS-7375 and create more market chances.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of a formal agreement with Erasca, Inc. regarding VS-7375.
Worry ifNo updates or delays in forming the partnership with Erasca, Inc.
Why it matters: What management decides to do with money can affect the company's growth. A change may show a new path.
Watch forManagement has a new plan for spending money. This plan focuses on growth and investment.
Also watch forManagement sticks with the current plan for spending money without changes.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$272 on $10,000 · ±2.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $751 loss on $10,000 · 7.5% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $6,797 loss on $10,000 · 68.0% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: This data is key to proving AVMAPKI FAKZYNJA CO-PACK works for more patients.
Watch forTopline data from the RAMP 301 trial shows good results for AVMAPKI FAKZYNJA CO-PACK.
Also watch forTopline data shows weak or unclear results. This raises doubts about the drug's effectiveness.
Why it matters: Finishing enrollment is important for moving VS-7375 forward. It shows progress toward key trials.
Supportive ifEnrollment in all three TARGET-D Phase 2 trials is completed by December 2026.
Worry ifEnrollment is delayed beyond year-end 2026.
Why it matters: Final results will show if the drug combination works for pancreatic cancer. Good results could help with more development and partnerships.
Supportive ifThe final overall survival rate from the RAMP 205 trial shows an improvement over 86%.
Worry ifOverall survival rate does not improve or declines from the current 86%.
Why it matters: This meeting is important for planning key trials for VS-7375. Good feedback could speed up development.
Supportive ifThe FDA meeting happens and gives good feedback on trial plans.
Worry ifThe meeting is delayed or results in negative feedback.
Why it matters: Positive results could support Verastem's strategy to treat KRAS G12D tumors. This is a key area for growth.
Supportive ifEarly data from the TARGET-D 101 trial shows strong results in KRAS G12D patients.
Worry ifNegative data or delays in reporting from the TARGET-D 101 trial.
Why it matters: If the healthcare sector shows renewed revenue growth, it may help Verastem's performance. This could signal a better environment for the company.
Supportive ifHealthcare sector revenue growth speeds up again toward its past highs.
Worry ifHealthcare sector revenue growth keeps slowing down or stays the same.
Why it matters: Starting these trials would show progress in targeting KRAS G12D tumors. This is a key goal.
Supportive ifManagement announces initiation of three Phase 3 trials for VS-7375 by 1H 2027.
Worry ifNo announcement of trial initiation by mid-2027.
Why it matters: Lower losses would show better cost control and efficiency.
Supportive ifOperating losses drop from -$44.9M in 2026-Q1.
Worry ifOperating losses remain at or worsen from -$44.9M in 2026-Q1.
Why it matters: This data could show how well VS-7375 works for KRAS G12D tumors. Positive results may boost investor confidence.
Supportive ifNew clinical data for VS-7375 shows strong anti-tumor effects in many cancers.
Worry ifData shows no big improvements or new safety problems.