Vistagen Therapeutics Inc (VTGN)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
$0.19+11.49%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · VTGN
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -80.5% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | Not available |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
A comparable growth gap is not available.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Elevated risk of a next-quarter earnings miss: this name is a smaller-cap name (higher miss base rate) and operates in a high-miss-rate industry. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 66 industry peers
VTGN — strategy / product update
Dated 2026-10-30
above. Forward-looking Statements This Current Report on Form 8-K contains certain forward-looking statements within the meaning of the federal securities laws. In some cases, you can identify forward-looking statements by the use of words such as “may,” “could,” “expect,” “project,” “outlook,” “strategy,” “intend,” “plan,” “seek,” “anticipate,” “believe,” “estimate,” “predict,” “potential,” “strive,” “goal,” “continue,” “likely,” “will,” “would” and variations of these terms and similar expr…
Why it matters: The FDA's view will shape the next test of fasedienol. Clear support would help keep the program moving.
Supportive ifVistagen reports FDA support for a new Phase 3 trial, with agreed study design and key measures.
Worry ifThe FDA does not support the proposed trial, or asks for more studies before a registration trial.
Why it matters: The PALISADE-4 main study missed its main goal. A new controlled trial that meets its main goal would answer that concern.
Supportive ifA new placebo-controlled Phase 3 trial meets its stated main goal on the planned anxiety scale.
Worry ifThe new Phase 3 trial misses its main goal, or Vistagen delays or stops the trial.
Why it matters: Cash fell to $31.7 million, and management lists runway as a priority. More cash or lower spending would ease near-term funding pressure.
Worry ifThe November 12 report shows cash above $31.7 million, or a longer stated runway with no new share sale.
Less concerning ifCash falls below $31.7 million. Management reports no new funding or longer runway.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$233 on $10,000 · ±2.3% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $797 loss on $10,000 · 8.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $9,658 loss on $10,000 · 96.6% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.