VISIONWAVE HOLDINGS INC (VWAV)
NASDAQIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-11-04
$1.92-14.13%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · VWAV
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 42.7% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | Not available |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
A comparable growth gap is not available.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of — · Company calendar date is not available
VWAV — M&A activity — Termination of a Material Definitive Agreement
Dated 2026-10-13
Termination of a Material Definitive Agreement. Background As previously reported in the Current Report on Form 8-K filed by VisionWave Holdings, Inc. (the “ Company ”) with the Securities and Exchange Commission (the “ SEC ”) on October 6, 2026 (the “ Prior 8-K ”), on September 30, 2026, the Company entered into a Joint Venture and Operating Agreement (the “ JV Agreement ”) with Sadot Group Inc., a Nevada corporation (“ Sadot ”), and CMJV LLC, a Nevada limited liability company formed by the…
Why it matters: The risk label rose from elevated to high. Losses and weak RFP signals add to the need to track whether company results improve.
Supportive ifCompany updates show new paid orders or revenue growth. The risk label falls from high, and the RFP signal improves from weak.
Worry ifThe risk label stays high or rises, while the RFP signal stays weak and losses continue.
Why it matters: The order is not in backlog, and no money has been paid. Production starts only after all funding, bank, approval, and review steps clear.
Supportive ifVisionWave reports proof of funds, an agreed bank guarantee, and the $2 million advance payment. Required approvals and customer checks are complete.
Worry ifVisionWave reports that a key condition failed. This means the customer did not pay the $2 million advance or canceled the order.
Why it matters: VisionWave ended a joint venture agreement in October. The next filing can show whether the change caused costs or altered its business plans.
Worry ifA company filing reports costs, lost revenue, or a new delay tied to the joint venture termination.
Less concerning ifThe next filing reports no major cost or delay from the termination. It also reports no change to stated business plans.
Why it matters: The vehicle has not passed the planned demo or acceptance tests. The results may change its design, cost, or delivery plan.
Supportive ifVisionWave reports a successful demo and acceptance test. The final vehicle design is agreed, with no major cost or schedule change.
Worry ifThe demo or test fails, or the technical annex calls for major design, cost, or schedule changes.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$702 on $10,000 · ±7.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $1,642 loss on $10,000 · 16.4% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $9,932 loss on $10,000 · 99.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.